313
FXUS64 KTSA 170212
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
912 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025
...New SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 910 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025
- A low chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight near
the Kansas and Missouri border.
- Above normal temperatures return for the remainder of the work
week; much cooler temperatures this weekend with cold front
and rain.
- A more active weather pattern returns Friday into the weekend
with multiple rounds of strong to severe storms and heavy rain
expected. The heavy rains may lead to some flooding, including
river flooding.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 910 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025
Showers and thunderstorms across southern Kansas this evening will
mainly remain north of our area overnight. Later tonight, there
remains a low chance that isolated showers and storms may develop
near the Kansas/Oklahoma border, so the going low pops in that
area look good. The forecast is on track, and no update is planned
at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025
Warmer and windier conditions will arrive Thursday as warm air
advection/downslope flow increase across eastern OK and northwest
AR. This occurs as two separate troughs eventually combine over
the Great Basin region late Thursday night. As low pressure
develops and strengthens across the High Plains Thursday morning,
the pressure gradient will also strengthen, causing southerly
winds to increase by midday, especially near and north of the I-40
corridor, as well as in the higher terrain locations in southeast
OK. Widespread wind gusts 30-35 mph are likely, with occasional
gusts 40+ mph at times. Held off on a Wind Advisory for now,
though cannot completely rule one out for at least portions of
northeast OK if trends in winds speeds increase even a little bit.
Will let the next shift re-analyze the latest model trends.
A transition to more active weather pattern occurs by Friday and
persists through the upcoming weekend as strong mid/upper-level
southwest flow develops aloft. At the surface, a slow-advancing
cold front will move into the forecast area beginning Friday
morning, becoming stalled near or just south of the I-44 corridor
by Saturday morning. The combination of the frontal boundary and
slow-progression upper-level trough will result in multiple rounds
of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon through at least
Sunday before the front and the trough finally move out of the
area. Strong to severe thunderstorms appear probable Friday
evening/night, possibly lingering into Saturday morning as storms
form along and ahead of the frontal boundary. At this time, large
hail and damaging winds are expected to be the main concern.
However, there will be a low tornado potential with storms that
initially form. Severe probabilities become a little more
uncertain during the day Saturday and Sunday and will depend on
the position of the front and how much instability is available in
the vicinity.
The potential for flooding/flash flooding/river flooding also
increases beginning Friday afternoon/evening and continues through
the weekend. Both NAEFS and ECMWF ENS show anomalous IVTs and
PWATs for the area, with PWATs increase to 1.25-1.5+ inches
through the weekend. Consensus in model/ensemble data continue to
suggest widespread rainfall amounts between 2 and 4 inches,
locally higher amounts possible, through Sunday, with the bulk of
the precipitation falling Friday evening through Sunday morning.
The WPC has included much of the forecast area in a Slight Risk
(at least 15% chance) of exceeding flash flood guidance on Friday
and all of the forecast area on Saturday. As far as river
flooding potential, the highest chance of river flooding will
occur for the Grand-Neosho River and Spring River Basins, the
Illinois River Basin, and the Poteau River Basin.
Much quieter weather is expected Monday and much of Tuesday as
high pressure builds into the region. Global models show another
shortwave trough impacting the area by Tuesday evening/Wednesday,
which may bring in the next best chance of widespread showers and
thunderstorms.
Mejia
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025
Primarily VFR conditions are expected through the period for all
sites, with the exception of some MVFR cigs possibilities for KMLC
late tonight/tomorrow morning. Gusty south winds will subside a
little this evening and overnight tonight before picking back up
tomorrow morning gusting to 30+ knots at times during the day
tomorrow. A strong LLJ overnight tonight will also yield low level
wind shear conditions across all sites. Have maintained prob30s
for low chances of a shower or storm for KBVO, KXNA, and KROG. Low
level moisture return could lead to low cloud formation late
tonight into tomorrow morning across eastern Oklahoma. Have more
confidence in a cig being possible for KMLC so have introduced
MVFR cigs there for tomorrow morning with maintaining SCT mention
everywhere else where confidence in a ceiling is less.
Bowlan
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 64 86 67 80 / 10 0 10 30
FSM 59 85 65 84 / 0 0 0 20
MLC 64 84 67 82 / 0 0 0 20
BVO 61 87 64 78 / 20 0 10 30
FYV 58 82 64 80 / 0 0 0 30
BYV 59 81 66 81 / 10 10 0 20
MKO 63 83 66 80 / 0 0 0 30
MIO 61 82 67 78 / 20 10 0 40
F10 64 85 66 81 / 0 0 0 30
HHW 61 83 64 82 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...04