178 FXUS64 KTSA 132322 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 622 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 - Low daily chances of showers and thunderstorms continue through the forecast period. Storms will become increasingly confined to the higher terrain across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the afternoon hours. - Near or above average temperatures, with heat index values near or above 100 degrees late this week, this weekend, and into early next week. Heat headlines may be required for some locations beginning on Friday. - A cooler and wetter weather pattern looks probable by midweek next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Northeast-to-southwest oriented mid/upper level trough axis continues to push across the forecast area early this afternoon. Weak lifting ahead of the axis has already caused storm initiation across portions of far southeast OK and west-central AR early this afternoon. Main impacts associated with stronger thunderstorm activity will be brief heavy rain in slow-moving storms, which may lead to localized flooding, gusty outflow winds, and cloud-to- ground lighting. Neither widespread flooding nor severe thunderstorms are anticipated. Isolated convection may linger into the early-mid evening hours before nocturnal cooling ends precipitation chances through the remainder of the night. For tonight, expect another seasonably mild mid-August night with overnight lows bottoming out in the upper 60s to lower 70s underneath partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. Winds stay light and variable to near calm. No impacts expected. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Deterministic model and ensemble data are in good agreement that the mid/upper level ridge, currently position over the Great Basin, will shift eastward over the Plains tomorrow. Temperatures return closer to seasonal average tomorrow and will rise above average starting Friday, with temperatures remaining above average through the weekend and into the early part of next week. Average high temperatures will range from the mid-upper 90s Friday-Tuesday. Likewise, heat index values are expected to climb each day beginning tomorrow. Values will be on the cusp of Heat Advisory criteria in the typical "hot" locations tomorrow, perhaps maybe even reaching advisory criteria for a couple of hours in isolated locations. Will forgo a Heat Advisory for Thursday at this time, but may need to be considered if T/Td trend warmer. By Friday, heat headlines will likely be needed for some portions of the forecast area during the afternoon hours. In fact, heat headlines appear likely each afternoon through at least Monday (maybe into Tuesday) next week for much of the forecast area as peak heat index values rise between 105- 110 deg. Despite the unseasonably hot temperatures in the long-term, there will be (low) daily chances (10-20%) of diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms, especially across the high terrain areas of northwest AR and southeast OK. Otherwise, most locations will remain dry. Another pattern change looks probable by midweek as a potent mid/upper level synoptic trough forms over eastern Canada and digs southward over the Northeast/Great Lakes/Midwest regions. This will cause the summertime ridge to retrograde over the Four Corners region and produce meridional flow aloft, with eastern OK and northwest AR residing on the far eastern periphery of the ridge. This pattern is indicative of pushing surface cold fronts and mid/upper level shortwave troughs through the region. Long-range deterministic models show just that, a much cooler and wetter pattern by Wednesday. Will continue to stick with the NBM solution for temperatures and precipitation chances at this time, but the forecast will likely be refined and more detailed by this weekend or early next week. Mejia && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 72 95 76 97 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 74 97 76 98 / 0 10 0 20 MLC 72 95 75 97 / 0 0 0 10 BVO 67 95 71 97 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 69 94 70 94 / 0 10 0 10 BYV 69 95 70 95 / 0 10 0 20 MKO 72 95 74 97 / 0 0 0 10 MIO 69 95 71 97 / 0 0 0 0 F10 70 94 72 97 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 72 94 73 94 / 0 10 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...05