307
FXUS64 KOUN 192305
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
505 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 423 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

 - Elevated to near critical fire danger risk across parts of our
   area Friday afternoon.

 - Elevated fire danger risk Saturday afternoon in southwest OK
   and western north TX.

 - Dry with above to well above average temperatures expected
   through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1059 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

The main weather story for the rest of today will be the potential
for near-critical fire weather primarily across western Oklahoma,
though elevated fire weather is expected across much of the area.

Meteorological reasoning: Dry return flow is underway as surface
pressure falls have been noted across northwest Oklahoma.
Oklahoma/West Texas Mesonet observations show an axis of extremely
dry (dewpoints 8-12) air being recycled north-northeast from Lubbock
to about Dodge City. Some of the more mixing-friendly models suggest
that this degree of dryness will eventually spread eastward toward I-
35. We don`t want to discount that potential entirely, but with a
fairly substantial deck of high cloud cover moving in off of the
Front Range mountain wave, mixing does not look like it will be
fully maximized today.

Even without that, RHs will end up as low as the mid-to-high teens
this afternoon with wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range. That will
support near-critical fire weather. No Red Flag Warnings have been
issued in part due to the cloud cover limiting mixing and in part
due to the still less-than-favorable fuelscape, but would expect any
fires that develop today to be at least fairly punchy.

The other sensible weather impact will be the aforementioned wind
gusts. Those will be strongest in the core of downslope winds whose
eastern extent is still somewhat uncertain, as noted. Don`t expect
widespread gusts at or above Wind Advisory criteria, but maximum
gusts for some sites out west today will likely reach 40+ mph.

Because of the breezy conditions, temperatures tonight will be much
milder than they were last night. We will finally start seeing some
not-bone-dry air returning up the I-35 corridor toward daybreak, but
the LLJ/mechanical mixing will be strong enough that fog looks
unlikely.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1059 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

The U.S. will be under a remarkably zonal mid-latitude jet tomorrow.
Despite that, a trough digging through southern Canada will trigger
a frontal trough to develop from the mid-Mississippi Valley
southwestward tomorrow morning. We`ll see a transition to light
northwest winds after daybreak, then a surge of gustier and drier
winds later in the day. To the south of the front, "prefrontal
torching" is expected. There is a little bit of uncertainty
regarding just how far south the front suppressed that torch.
Wherever that zone does end up (and right now our forecast is
depicting most, if not all, of our western north Texas counties),
highs will soar easily into the 70s.

Nature is giving us a day off from the windy whiplash effect on
Sunday. We`ll only have a light east breeze, and temperatures will
only be a little above normal. During this current heatwave, that
will be enough to qualify as a cooldown.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Models show the zonal upper pattern that will be over the region
this weekend shifting next week as an upper ridge builds into the
southern Plains. With this ridge, dry and well above average
temperatures are expected next week. Temperatures are expected to be
climbing into the 70s and 80s across the fa by the middle of next
week. A moist airmass is also expected next week which will lead to
humid conditions and overnight lows in the 50s possibly low 60s in
at least parts of the fa next week as well. These temperatures (both
highs and lows) will be 20 to 25 degrees above average for late
December.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 423 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

VFR conditions to continue.

Gusty south winds will relax some around 00Z, but remain breezy
through much of the night. Even with this strengthening llj will
result in llws at most sites by 02-03Z. A pre-frontal trough will
allow the winds to become rather light toward morning before
stronger front sweeps south across Oklahoma and north Texas during
the day Saturday. Winds will shift to the north and northeast
behind the front with some gusts approaching 30 mph across the
western half of Oklahoma. Still expect to see some high clouds
through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  46  66  37  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         42  72  35  56 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  48  76  40  58 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           41  64  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     40  61  33  56 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         46  72  45  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...30