861
FXUS64 KOUN 041711
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1207 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

- Thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall remain possible Friday.

- Rain/thunderstorm chances continue through the long term period.

- Hot and humid conditions return next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Scattered showers and storms are expected again today as an upper
shortwave continues moves over an extremely moist airmass. Severe
weather is not expected, but slow moving storms could lead to some
localized flooding. Abundant cloud cover will keep temperatures on
the cool side (highs in the low to mid 80s), but humidity will
remain high with dewpoints in the 70s. Rain chances diminish in the
late afternoon to early evening to around 5-10% across most of the
area. After midnight tonight, a few CAMs bring back a few isolated
showers and/or a storm complex making a run for northwest Oklahoma
before dissipating.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Saturday, the shortwave begins to depart, but some lingering rain
chances remain through the day. Skies begin mostly cloudy with
perhaps some breaks opening up toward evening. Temperatures start to
gradually rebound with highs in the upper 80s expected.

There is some signal in the CAMs for a storm complex off the high
plains to make a run for northern Oklahoma Saturday night.

With the extremely moist airmass still in place, Sunday looks much
like Saturday giving us low rain chances, lots of clouds, and
temperatures at or just below normal.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

The ridge builds over Arizona / New Mexico, putting us into a
northwest flow regime. With nothing to clear the moisture out, this
will keep low chance PoPs in the forecast through most of next week,
including chances for overnight storms. Temperatures gradually
increase into the mid to upper 90s by midweek. Heat indices will
approach 105 degrees across parts of southern Oklahoma (especially
southeast) and north Texas by midweek.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Ceilings are gradually improving across the area early this
afternoon, but MVFR conditions remain at many airports. Expect
most of this to become VFR between now and about 20Z, except for
areas where showers bring brief downpours and visibility
reductions. Shower chances will taper off relatively early this
evening. Given the anomalously humid airmass, further MVFR stratus
is expected to develop tonight and remain into tomorrow morning.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  84  71  86  71 /  30  10  20  20
Hobart OK         84  70  88  70 /  50  10  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  82  71  88  72 /  70  10  20  10
Gage OK           84  68  89  69 /  30  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     86  71  88  70 /  30  20  30  30
Durant OK         87  73  91  73 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04