861 FXUS64 KOUN 041711 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1207 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 - Thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall remain possible Friday. - Rain/thunderstorm chances continue through the long term period. - Hot and humid conditions return next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Scattered showers and storms are expected again today as an upper shortwave continues moves over an extremely moist airmass. Severe weather is not expected, but slow moving storms could lead to some localized flooding. Abundant cloud cover will keep temperatures on the cool side (highs in the low to mid 80s), but humidity will remain high with dewpoints in the 70s. Rain chances diminish in the late afternoon to early evening to around 5-10% across most of the area. After midnight tonight, a few CAMs bring back a few isolated showers and/or a storm complex making a run for northwest Oklahoma before dissipating. Day && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Saturday, the shortwave begins to depart, but some lingering rain chances remain through the day. Skies begin mostly cloudy with perhaps some breaks opening up toward evening. Temperatures start to gradually rebound with highs in the upper 80s expected. There is some signal in the CAMs for a storm complex off the high plains to make a run for northern Oklahoma Saturday night. With the extremely moist airmass still in place, Sunday looks much like Saturday giving us low rain chances, lots of clouds, and temperatures at or just below normal. Day && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 The ridge builds over Arizona / New Mexico, putting us into a northwest flow regime. With nothing to clear the moisture out, this will keep low chance PoPs in the forecast through most of next week, including chances for overnight storms. Temperatures gradually increase into the mid to upper 90s by midweek. Heat indices will approach 105 degrees across parts of southern Oklahoma (especially southeast) and north Texas by midweek. Day && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Ceilings are gradually improving across the area early this afternoon, but MVFR conditions remain at many airports. Expect most of this to become VFR between now and about 20Z, except for areas where showers bring brief downpours and visibility reductions. Shower chances will taper off relatively early this evening. Given the anomalously humid airmass, further MVFR stratus is expected to develop tonight and remain into tomorrow morning. Meister && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 84 71 86 71 / 30 10 20 20 Hobart OK 84 70 88 70 / 50 10 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 82 71 88 72 / 70 10 20 10 Gage OK 84 68 89 69 / 30 20 10 10 Ponca City OK 86 71 88 70 / 30 20 30 30 Durant OK 87 73 91 73 / 50 10 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...14 SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...04