249 FXUS64 KOUN 072314 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 614 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 549 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 - Mild and dry conditions are expected throughout the week. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 As of 1900UTC, a cold front was moving into southern Kansas with air temperatures in the 60`s southward and 50`s north of the boundary. The decaying front moves into northern Oklahoma later this afternoon or into the early evening and then propagates south/west late tonight before stalling from northwest Oklahoma to central and southeastern Oklahoma. Ahead of the boundary, winds shift predominantly to the south and could be variable at times during the overnight hours. Clear skies and light winds will allow for temperatures to decrease into the mid/upper-30`s with a few areas in the low 40`s, which is about a 5-10 deg improvement from last night`s freezing temperatures. Thompson && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 On Tuesday, the stalled frontal boundary dissipates by mid-morning and southerly winds increase to 15-20 mph (gusts to 30 mph) for areas along and west of I-44 as the pressure gradient tightens due to lee-side cyclogenesis. Low-level WAA and diabatic heating will lead to high temperatures in the 70`s. The surface low tracks eastward over the central plains and the associated cold front enters northwest Oklahoma mid-morning Wednesday with breezy conditions expected. NBM seemed too warm over northwest Oklahoma following FROPA, and therefore, we lowered high temperatures a bit using CONSALL. Still, mild and dry conditions continue with winds shifting to the north area-wide by late Wednesday. Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Sunday) Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 Another dry, cold front moves through on Thursday resulting in gusty north winds and highs mainly in the 70`s through Friday. Then, a warming trend over the weekend as the upper ridge passes overhead and winds shift to the south and strengthen with the formation of a lee-side trough. Very warm on Sunday with highs in the 80s and 90s. Thompson && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 549 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 All of our terminals should remain under VFR conditions through the forecast period. Surface winds will go light and variable tonight. A surface low deepening lee of the Colorado Rockies will return southerly surface winds across our terminals between 15-16Z with windspeeds at 10 kts gusting to 15-20 kts. The pressure gradient will continue to tighten through the afternoon and by 21Z will be increasing wind speeds to 15 kts gusting up to 25 kts && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 65 39 71 50 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 67 38 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 65 39 75 51 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 69 37 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 67 36 73 49 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 64 42 71 50 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...01 SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...68