973
FXUS61 KILN 172347
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
647 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Southerly flow allows for a continued warming into Thursday.
Temperatures take a step back late Thursday after rain and a cold
front push through the area. High pressure will bring dry weather
Friday and cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high continues to drift east of the Ohio Valley this
afternoon into tonight. Southerly flow increases through the night
as the pressure gradient strengthens over the the region southeast
of a strong low moving into the northern Plains. Temperatures remain
above freezing through the period due to the southerly winds. LLJ
winds and the strongest gusts tonight should remain atop a strong
temperature inversion near the surface. Rain chances likely hold off
until after daybreak since best overlap of moisture and forcing
remains to the west closer to an approaching cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A stacked low pressure system moves into the Upper Great Lakes on
Thursday. This strong low will lead to breezy southerly winds across
the Ohio Valley ahead of a cold front and warm conditions throughout
the day. Wind gusts up to 35 MPH are possible during the daytime
hours.

By Thursday afternoon and evening, rain chances increase
when a cold front, and an upper level vorticity max, pivots through
the area. Some heavier pockets of showers are possible. There is
also the outside chance that wind gusts in excess of 40 mph could
occur in the strongest showers if very strong LLJ winds aloft can be
mixed downward. Up to an inch of rain may fall in some locations.
The best rain chances quickly end behind the front after 8pm.
Temperatures initially drop into the 30s during the early overnight
with a few lingering snow or rain showers possible.

On late Thursday night a second cold front drops into the area from
the northwest. Temperatures drop into the lower 20s behind this
front around daybreak Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A strong cold front will progress through the local area early
Friday morning, with a persistent signal for very steep lapse rates
in the CAA regime following the FROPA, which undoubtedly will bring
additional gustiness (to around 30-40 MPH) back into the area during
the predawn hours Friday. This gustiness will be maintained at least
somewhat into the daytime with good mixing conditions, with gusts to
around 35-40 MPH possible near/north of the Ohio River corridor into
early Friday afternoon before subsiding late in the day.

Scattered snow shower activity/flurries will likely develop during
the predawn hours Friday and continue in at least an isolated
capacity into early afternoon before subsiding late in the day as
the LL flow decreases and becomes more westerly. With the steep
lapse rates and weak but sufficient moisture/lift overlap within the
DGZ, some ISO/SCT snow showers can be expected during the morning
before gradually tapering off from W to E as the best
forcing/moisture pull off to the E. Even still, suppose a few
flurries will be possible into early afternoon, particularly near/N
of I-70 where the best moisture will reside downstream of the lakes.

Quieter conditions will then evolve for the remainder of the long
term period as sfc high pressure settles in by Saturday with quasi-
zonal flow aloft becoming established this weekend into early next
week. A weak cold front will bring slightly cooler air into the area
by Sunday, but otherwise near normal to above normal temperatures
are expected into early next week with dry conditions prevailing
during this time. Suppose that brief stretches of light pcpn cannot
be ruled out either Monday or Tuesday as several very weak
disturbance progress through the region. However, the pcpn should be
light and sporadic in nature given the meager forcing and there is
not yet a clear or consistent signal for specific timing or favored
locations for more robust pcpn during this time. Much above normal
temperatures are expected to evolve toward midweek and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weather system approaches from the west and a strong low level jet
will set up over the region during the overnight hours; this
introduces a prolonged period of low level wind shear out of the
southwest around 50 knots. LLWS lasts from the overnight hours
tonight through 00Z or so tomorrow evening.

Closer to the surface,winds out of the south will pick up during the
overnight tonight, becoming southwesterly by Thursday morning,
sustained around 15 knots, gusting to 30+ knots during the afternoon
and evening hours. Tried to time the strongest winds with the
afternoon/evening passage of the cold front, but these times will
likely need tweaked.

VFR conditions are in place at the start of the TAF period and will
persist into Thursday late afternoon hours, when CIGs begin to lower
ahead of the approaching cold front/ rain. Take all sites down to
MVFR and took DAY down to IFR by the evening hours Thursday. CMH and
LCK may also need to be lowered to IFR by the next TAF set.

Anticipate scattered rain showers to overspread from west to east
Thursday afternoon, becoming widespread by evening hours. There is a
possibility for rumbles of thunder at CVG and LUK, but confidence is
low so did not include a thunder element in TAFs at this time.
Evening rain may be heavy at times, especially with the passage of
the frontal boundary.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions possible Thursday into Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CA