463
FXUS61 KILN 130144
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
944 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Influence of surface high pressure begins to weaken heading into
Friday. A nearly stationary boundary will align itself across the
upper Ohio Valley throughout the weekend. The combination of this
boundary and upper level energy will result in several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A few returns are starting to show up on radar in Indiana. With most
of this falling from a mid deck do not expect much in the way of
precipitation reaching the ground during the first half of the night.
Expect a few light showers and isolated thunderstorms around during
the second half of the night, however still limited precipitation
chances to a slight chance. Winds will be light overnight. There will
be quite a bit of cloud cover which will keep temperatures from
dropping off too much with lows only in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Quasi-stationary front will sink southward from the Great Lakes on
Friday, which will now be draped across northern OH. A shortwave
trough will eject from the southern Plains on Friday, which combined
with the stalled boundary, will aid in shower/storm development
throughout the day. Best coverage appears to be in the afternoon and
evening as diurnal enhancement occurs. Given the weak shear profiles
and weak to marginal DCAPE values (near 500 J/kg), severe threat
will be little to none in our CWA. A few stronger cells could produce
small hail and gusty winds, mainly during the afternoon and evening.
Flooding concern should be little to none as well given the drier
weather the past several days. However, hydro issues could crop up
later into the weekend with the repeated rounds of storms.

Shower and storm activity will continue into the overnight hours as
the shortwave trough remains in close proximity. Coverage will be
expected to wane as we progress through the night, but there will
likely be some cells on the scope through the entire period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mid level trough axis and an associated weak surface wave will
progress slowly east across the Ohio Valley through the weekend and
into early next week. This will lead to occasional chances for
showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Monday. With weak
afternoon instabilities, we will likely see some diurnal enhancement
in the pops during the afternoons and early evenings. Any severe
threat should remain minimal with locally heavy rain being the main
concern. Daytime highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s through
the weekend.

We will transition to a bit more of zonal flow pattern through mid
next week as a series of weak embedded short waves move east across
the region within the flow. Temperatures will gradually moderate
with highs by mid week in the mid to possibly upper 80s. This will
combine with increasing moisture to allow for some better
instabilities to develop through the later part of the period. As a
result, we will have a continued chance for showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. A lower end severe threat
may also develop as we head into mid week given the potential for
better instability and a somewhat stronger flow pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will start out the TAF period. If there are some
breaks in the clouds overnight cannot rule out some brief river
valley fog at KLUK. Shower activity in the morning should be pretty
isolated and therefore left out of the TAFs until the afternoon
hours. Thunderstorms will move into the region during the late
afternoon and into the evening hours. Vsbys will be reduced with some
of the thunderstorm activity.

OUTLOOK...Storms will be possible Friday night through Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ070-071-077-078.
     Air Quality Alert until 10 PM EDT this evening for OHZ046-055-056-
     065.
KY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ091>093.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for INZ050-058-059-066-
     074.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Clark
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...