838 FXUS61 KCLE 260531 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 131 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A front will meander across the eastern Great Lakes region through early next week. The front will push south across the Ohio Valley as a cold front on Tuesday with high pressure building across the region by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Unsettled weather will continue to impact the local area through the weekend as a stationary front remains draped across the region. Periods of increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the near term along the stationary front and as multiple shortwaves move overhead. Main periods to watch for increased coverage will be late tonight/early Saturday morning and Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Forecast wise, kept chance PoPs (30-50%) in place with PoPs increasing to likely (50-70%) during higher confidence windows of increased convective coverage. Can`t rule out instances of strong to severe wind gusts in convection on Saturday as MLCAPE may approach 2000-2500 J/kg with 30-35 knots of deep layer shear in place close to the wavering surface boundary Saturday afternoon. To highlight the risk, SPC has placed the entire forecast area in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather on Saturday. Additionally, heavy rainfall remains possible as PWATs will approach 2.00 inches. WPC continues to highlight the forecast area in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall. Given the moist airmass in place and light winds overnight tonight, patchy dense fog is possible along and east of I-71 before daybreak Saturday morning. Overnight lows will remain warm as they settle in the lower 70s tonight and Saturday night. High temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80s by Saturday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Showers and thunderstorms will exit on Sunday as the front pushes out of the local area. Maintained some higher higher PoPs across southern zones (south of US-30) Sunday afternoon and evening before precipitation exits Sunday night. High temperatures rise into the upper 80s on Sunday with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. We`ll see another brief window of very warm and humid weather early next week as high temperatures in upper 80s to lower 90s combine with dew points in the mid 70s to produce maximum heat index values in the mid to upper 90s on Monday. Low temperatures settle in the low 70s Monday night. Scattered showers are possible on Monday as the front from this weekend will lift back northeast. Higher coverage in showers and thunderstorms on Monday would reduce the threat of extreme heat early next week. Will need to keep any eye on how the front evolves to determine if heat headlines will be necessary on Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tuesday will bring one final day of heat and humidity with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s. A cold front will sink south across the area on Wednesday which will usher in a cooler airmass as Canadian high pressure begins to build south across the Great Lakes region. Can`t rule out periods of showers through mid-week along the aforementioned cold front. High temperatures in the mid 80s on Wednesday will fall into the upper 70s by Thursday and Friday. Milder overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s are expected beginning Wednesday night and continuing through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Continuing to use rapid updating convective models to time the best chances for SHRA/TSRA to impact individual terminals in another day where off and on convective activity across the region is expected. The showers in northwest Ohio will carry across the lakeshore over the next 3-6 hours this morning with TSRA at CLE for a couple of hours. This activity tracks eastward, but keeping the other terminals at SHRA or VCSH. After this exits, focus turns to convective activity that will move in after 19Z this afternoon to the western zones, and with upper level disturbances initiating more thunderstorm activity further eastward. Felt the best way to cover this was with PROB30 groups when the best windows for formation are occurring. This is where some of the lower confidence comes into play with the forecast. Outlook...Non-VFR possible through Sunday in scattered showers and thunderstorms with a frontal boundary lingering in the area. VFR possible briefly on Monday ahead of a cold frontal passage Tuesday, when non-VFR is possible again. && .MARINE... Winds will continue to be out of the west at around 10 knots with waves less than 2 feet across the central and eastern basin, and lower in the western basin. Overnight tonight, winds will become light and variable before being predominately out of the south-southwest by mid-morning tomorrow at less than 10 knots. Waves of less than 2 feet are expected through Saturday. Winds will increase again between 10-15 knots out of the west come Sunday morning and waves building to around 2 feet. Winds and waves will begin to subside Sunday evening into Monday morning and will be southwesterly as a weak frontal boundary lifts north across the lake through Monday. A cold front will sweep across the region through the day Tuesday with winds increasing briefly to 10-15 knots out of the northwest and waves building to around 2 feet. Onshore winds of 10 knots or less are expected afterwards and through the rest of the week && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...13 NEAR TERM...13 SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM...13 AVIATION...26 MARINE...23