558 FXUS61 KCLE 070751 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 351 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will slowly push south across the region today before stalling in the Ohio Valley tonight and Tuesday as high pressure briefly builds southward into the Great Lakes. The front will lift back into the region Wednesday and will then oscillate slightly through the weekend. A stronger system may finally push the front out by Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... The focus of the near term will be the cold frontal passage expected today and the associated showers and thunderstorms. The main message is that confidence has increased for higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms late this morning through the afternoon, especially for inland portions of NE Ohio and NW PA in the 15-19Z time range, but exact locations remain somewhat uncertain. Early this morning, the cold front was oriented over Lake Erie and extended southwest through southern parts of Indiana and Illinois in a quasi-zonal mid/upper flow pattern. A few showers were lingering near the front over Lake Erie and the adjacent lakeshore areas, but these have struggled to hold together given the diurnal minimum and synoptic support still well to the north and west. A weak mid/upper shortwave trough seen on Infrared satellite and water vapor imagery was progressing across the corn belt. This shortwave will help to slowly push the front southeastward through the region later this morning through the afternoon as it lifts through the central Great Lakes, but the strongest mid-level flow and associated synoptic support will be displaced to the north with the deamplifying shortwave. This points to convection developing along and ahead of the cold front (and any outflow boundaries) today where low- level convergence interacts with building instability, but there will not be a lot of mid- level flow for convection to tap into, so slow moving convection with locally heavy rainfall will be the main impact late this morning through the afternoon. After collaboration with WPC, a slight risk ERO was introduced for portions of eastern Ohio and NW PA surrounded by the ongoing marginal risk given the growing confidence for slow moving convection with efficient rainfall rates. The sparse coverage of showers early this morning will allow for fairly strong heating through the morning. Forecast soundings suggest MLCAPE reaching 1000-1500 J/Kg by 16Z with little to no capping, so expect convection to start to fire after 15Z as stated above. PWATs of 1.75 to 1.95 inches will be in the 90th percentile of daily climatology, and this along with the overall weak mid-level flow, deep warm cloud layers, and deep layer flow mostly parallel to the front will support slowly moving convection with locally very heavy rainfall, as well as potential training. As stated above, exact locations remain uncertain, but consensus among CAMS is for a lot of coverage in inland portions of NE Ohio and NW PA between 15 and 19Z, so increased PoPs to likely and categorical in these areas. The rest of the area will see passing showers and thunderstorms too, but a lower risk compared to inland NE Ohio and NW PA since the front should clear NW Ohio and the lakeshore areas fairly early this morning (before the new convection fires). Localized severe weather remains a secondary concern. NE Ohio and NW PA remain in a marginal risk in the SWODY1 from the SPC, and this is reasonable with the aforementioned instability and the frontal passage. The biggest limiting factor will be the weak mid-level flow which results in deep layer shear under 30 knots and low-level shear under 10 knots, so organized severe weather is not expected. However, localized downburst winds are possible from precip loading, especially where higher daytime heating maximizes low-level lapse rates. Convection will gradually exit to the south and east of the region this evening and early tonight as the front settles to the south. Weak surface high pressure sliding south into the Great Lakes behind the front late tonight and Tuesday will keep most of the area dry, however, kept some slight chance PoPs from the NBM near US 30 and points south through Tuesday given the front nearby. Temperatures will remain very warm and humid today, with highs in the low/mid 80s expected. Slightly cooler Tuesday, with mainly low 80s. Lows tonight will be more comfortable, with low/mid 60s expected. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The frontal boundary from earlier in the week will be the main driver to the weather through late week as it slowly lifts back north Tuesday night and Wednesday in response to a distinct mid/upper shortwave trough progressing through the northern and central Great Lakes. The best forcing looks to again be displaced to the north, but NBM slight chance to chance PoPs look good for Wednesday as higher low-level moisture and instability begin to shift back northward coincident with daytime heating. This should yield widely scattered convection. Confidence in the placement of the front decreases Wednesday night through Thursday night. In one respect, the front should sink back southward behind the shortwave Wednesday night, but even if it does, it may creep back northward Thursday and Thursday night ahead of another upstream mid/upper shortwave approaching the northern Plains. Kept NBM slight chance to chance PoPs through Thursday night, which places the highest coverage with daytime heating Thursday, but confidence is low given the uncertainty on frontal placement. High temperatures will generally stay in the mid 80s Wednesday and Thursday, with lows in the low/mid 60s Tuesday night gradually climbing into mostly mid/upper 60s Wednesday and Thursday nights. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Quasi-zonal flow will persist for the end of the week and through the weekend, which will essentially keep the frontal boundary quasi-stationary over or near the region. This will maintain difficult to time showers and thunderstorms at times as weak shortwaves ripple through the flow and interact with the boundary, but there will be plenty of dry time and no wash outs. Kept NBM temperatures and PoPs given uncertainty with the placement of the boundary, so the main message is seasonably warm and humid conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms at times through the weekend. The aforementioned shortwave trough in the northern Plains may finally kick the front out of the region by Monday, and this could bring the next potential for more of an organized round of convection depending on timing. && .AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Coverage of showers across NW Ohio in the vicinity of a front continue to decrease with VFR conditions with scattered clouds in place across the area. A cold front extends from southern Ontario, to near Detroit, and southwest to Fort Wayne at 06Z. This front will slowly move southeast across northern Ohio and NW Pennsylvania today, reaching CLE towards 14Z and CAK towards 20Z before exiting to the southeast. Warm and moist conditions both ahead of and along the front will support showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall this afternoon. Have showers returning to FDY/ERI towards 15Z, and CLE around 17Z. Thunderstorms today will likely have IFR visibilities, possibly dropping to below a mile at times. Rain will increase along the SW to NE oriented front around 16Z with generally widespread showers and thunderstorms likely to impact MFD/CAK/YNG. Included winds gusting to 20 knots with thunderstorms but there is a low potential for thunderstorms to produce winds as high as 40-50 knots. Will need to update TAFs as thunderstorms start to fill in this afternoon to reflect better timing. Otherwise winds will shift from southwesterly ahead of the front to northerly behind it. Most locations will experience an MVFR deck behind the front but could start to see some IFR developing towards 06Z given lingering moist conditions, especially where heavy rain falls today. Outlook...Non-VFR with low ceilings and possibly fog may linger into Monday night. Non-VFR will be possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday, especially during the afternoon. && .MARINE... A cold front will settle south across Lake Erie this morning. Winds will go from southwesterly at 5-10 knots to northerly at 5-15 knots behind the front. The northerly flow will result in some choppiness in the nearshore waters as waves increase to around 2 feet this afternoon and possibly as high as 3 feet tonight. High pressure will build over Lake Erie on Tuesday with light onshore winds by afternoon. Generally expecting good marine conditions through the remainder of the week although scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from Wednesday through Saturday. Winds will tend to be 10 knots or less with waves of 2 feet or less. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Garuckas NEAR TERM...Garuckas SHORT TERM...Garuckas LONG TERM...Garuckas AVIATION...10 MARINE...10