708 FXUS61 KILN 050509 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 109 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving front will approach from the west overnight and then stall out across the area Thursday. Shower and storm chances increase late tonight, with episodic showers and thunderstorms continuing through Friday, before the cold front pushes south of the Ohio River. Precipitation chances decrease for a period this weekend, before another frontal system approaches the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Mid and upper level ridge axis to remain centered along the Eastern Seaboard with a broad southwesterly flow across our region. Embedded shortwave pivots thru the Great Lakes into southern Canada today. Slow moving surface front that is draped across Lower MI, IL, and MO nudges a little east into far northwest Ohio this evening. Conditions continue to favor a dry forecast through the evening but can not rule out an isolated shower/storm across our far northwest counties this evening. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase late tonight as an embedded shortwave approaches the area. Instability will be elevated an marginal - so do not expect a severe weather threat. Pressure gradient tightened today which led to breezy conditions. These winds will drop off to 10 mph or less after sunset. Mild overnight lows expected as a warm air mass remains intact with lows in the mid and upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Southwest flow aloft becomes more westerly Thursday. At the surface a weak cold front drops into the area and stall out Thursday night. Ongoing morning showers and thunderstorms move across the area early. Expect moderate instability to develop with MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/KG. Effective shear is marginal, so organized convection is not expected. Primary severe threat looks to be isolated downburst potential. High temperatures to range from the upper 70s northwest to the mid 80s southeast. Showers and thunderstorms coverage decreases Thursday evening into diurnal minimum but with a moist airmass in places and a front draped across the area will continue chance pops thru the night. Low temperatures to range from the lower 60s northwest to the mid and upper 60s along and south of the Ohio River. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An active weather pattern is expected for the long term time period. A boundary will be in place near the region Friday through Saturday. Multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms are expected during this time. With multiple waves expected, there will be the potential for localized flooding and therefore continued this mention in the HWO. In addition, an area of low pressure will move across the region on Friday. South of where this area of low pressure is expected to move, generally south of Interstate 70, there will be the potential for severe weather on Friday and into Friday night. Have mention of severe weather in the HWO already and will continue this mention as well. The main threat is expected to be damaging winds, however isolated large hail cannot be ruled out. The frontal boundary works through the region on Saturday. There is now more model variability for Saturday for whether this front works through the region and brings dry conditions or if another wave works up into the region bringing additional precipitation chances to the area. Due to this uncertainty, followed the NBM with lingering precipitation chances into Saturday night. There are also now signals that Sunday may not be completely dry. Confidence is not overly high with precipitation on Sunday and therefore precipitation chances are limited to the slight chance and chance categories. On Monday there continues to be a signal for a system moving through during this time. Confidence in at least scattered precipitation is on the higher end, however there are some differences in the strength and the timing of this system. Due to timing differences, linger precipitation chances into Tuesday before dry weather on Wednesday. For temperatures, high temperatures are expected to be in the 70s and 80s. Low temperatures are expected to be in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Some river valley BR/FG will impact KLUK with MVFR, or even brief IFR, VSBYs until the arrival of some thicker/lower cloud cover around daybreak. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected elsewhere as cloud cover thickens and overspreads from the W around sunrise and beyond. The arrival of widespread cloud cover will be accompanied by a weakening complex of SHRA/TSRA, which will move from W to E through the local area between about 11z and 17z. There are uncertainties about how long the organized band of SHRA/TSRA will persist with eastward extent, but do think that wrn sites of KDAY/KCVG/KLUK/KILN will see at least some brief pcpn during a several hour period this morning. There may be a brief lull in the activity late morning into early afternoon before some diurnally-driven SCT and disorganized SHRA/TSRA develop by mid afternoon and beyond. Right now, there is not a clear signal regarding a favored location or time period for any one site, so have maintained the PROB30 for each site through the evening to convey the expectation for at least some SHRA/TSRA potential at any/each site. There may be a better organized band of SHRA/TSRA that develops and moves near KCVG/KLUK/KILN after about 03z, so have added a TEMPO for these sites to account for this potential. CIGs should predominantly remain VFR, although suppose a brief MVFR CIG cannot be completely ruled out in a heavier SHRA/TSRA. Of course, brief but abrupt changes in VSBYs will be possible with any TSRA activity. Light southerly flow will become more out of the WSW around 5-10kts during the daytime before going light/VRB toward the end of the period once again. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible through Friday. MVFR/IFR ceilings are possible early Friday morning and again Friday night into Saturday. Some storms may again be possible early Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...CA/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM... AVIATION...KC