004 FXUS61 KCLE 101308 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 908 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will persist across the region into Thursday. A cold front will move south through the area by late Thursday into Friday. This front will stall just south of Lake Erie on Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 930 AM Update... Slight adjustments were made to temperatures to match current observations, but no other changes were needed with this update. Previous Discussion... Mainly quiet weather is expected for the near term period as high pressure builds across the the Ohio Valley today. Hazy skies from wildfire smoke may return to the area this afternoon and evening. Recent water vapor imagery reveals an upper-level low slowly meandering northwards towards Hudson Bay this morning, with primarily northwest flow aloft in its wake across portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Unfortunately, this means that wildfire smoke and hazy skies will likely make a return across the area later this afternoon and evening. With high pressure in place today, deep mixing this afternoon around 5 to 6kft and a nocturnal inversion overnight could trap some of this smoke closer to the surface. This will be something to monitor as upstream surface observations across portions of the eastern Dakotas and MN reveal some lower visibilites. Anticipate the hazy skies should clear the area through Wednesday morning as the better mid and upper-level jet energy lifts further to the north and as surface high pressure becomes more established across the Ohio Valley. In terms of temperatures, seasonable highs in the mid-70s are expected today, increasing to above-average in the low to mid-80s by Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure over the Ohio Valley departs to the mid-Atlantic region Wednesday night into Thursday. Meanwhile, a cold front approaches from the north, sagging southward into the forecast area Thursday night into Friday. Persistent southwest flow ahead of an approaching upper-level trough will gradually lead to rising moisture content and increasing precipitation chances, generally around 20% on Thursday with isolated showers and thunderstorms, increasing to the 30-40% range Friday and Friday night with scattered showers and thunderstorms as that upper-level trough approaches and provided slightly better forcing. Temperatures on Thursday should solidly be in the 80s areawide (except closer to lakeshore and in Northwest Pennsylvania). With the frontal passage Thursday night, should see a bit a temperature gradient with temperatures in the 70s in the northern half of the forecast area, and in the low 80s in the southern half. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The front remains over the area on Saturday and Sunday, likely shifting just south of our forecast area by Monday. Best forcing and moisture content will be on Saturday as the upper-level trough moves across the region. Confidence in precipitation is increasing, with the current PoP forecast in the 60-70% range. PWAT values are expected to be around 1.7 inches, which will support efficient rainfall. There is some uncertainty with amount of mid-level flow, with some models with weak flow (further supporting a heavy rain/flood threat), with others having somewhat modest flow (supporting a marginal severe weather threat). While the ensemble mean has precipitation chances gradually diminishing through Sunday/Monday as the front sags south, the operational ECMWF keeps the front over the forecast area on Sunday and Monday, with showers and storms continuing to pose a heavy rainfall threat, especially the southern half of our forecast area. && .AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Mainly VFR across the TAF sites this morning with the exception of brief pockets of IFR br/fog at CAK/YNG. Anticipate rapid improvement to VFR shortly following sunrise. Otherwise, VFR will persist across the TAF sites today with sct to perhaps bkn ceilings around 5kft developing this afternoon. Upper-level smoke may begin to arrive into the area by later this afternoon and evening. Winds are generally light and favoring a southwest direction this morning, around 5 knots. Winds will gradually shift towards the west later this morning and afternoon, increasing to 10 to 12 knots with gusts up to 20 knots possible. Outlook...Mainly VFR expected Tuesday through Thursday. Non-VFR may return in scattered showers and thunderstorms by late Friday into Saturday with a weak frontal boundary. && .MARINE... Southwest flow is expected to continue through Thursday. There is a low chance (~20%) for winds of around 20 knots in the eastern basin of Lake Erie Wednesday afternoon. A cold front moves south across Lake Erie on Thursday, with winds becoming northeast thereafter. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kahn NEAR TERM...04/Kahn SHORT TERM...Saunders LONG TERM...Saunders AVIATION...Kahn MARINE...Saunders