160
FXUS61 KCLE 200455
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1155 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and windy conditions continue this afternoon and evening,
with a brief warmup Saturday. A pair of weak cold fronts move
through Saturday night into Sunday morning, with chillier
conditions again Sunday. Milder temperatures are expected
through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A surface/850 mb trough will pass through the southern Great
Lakes this afternoon and evening, with associated bands of
moderate snow pushing east across the forecast area. A robust
lake effect band along the northeast OH/northwest PA lakeshore
will intensify and move inland in the wake of this trough,
bringing three to five inches of snow to higher elevations of
Erie County in PA. Locally higher amounts up to six or seven
inches are possible in inland Erie Co. Elsewhere across the
snowbelt, a general 1 to 3 inches of snow is possible. Wind
gusts up to 50 mph are possible along the lakeshore through this
evening, which will result in areas of blowing snow in the lake
effect band. Winds will gust to 30 mph elsewhere across the
remainder of the forecast area, but will diminish this evening
with near shore winds subsiding overnight. Wind chills today
will remain in the single digits. Low level warm air advection
moves in after 03Z Saturday, ending the lake effect event around
06Z, and pushing temperatures back above freezing for the day
on Saturday. Dry and breezy conditions area expected through the
day Saturday as well, with no advisories expected at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A couplet of weak/dry cold fronts will move through the region
on Sunday with no significant weather expected. The first
passes through prior to sunrise, and the second by late morning,
which will result in a steady drop in temperatures through the
morning. Temperatures eventually level out in the mid to upper
20s area-wide, but will rebound back above freezing again on
Monday as high pressure moves eastward across the southern Great
Lakes and into the Mid Atlantic. There is potential for
overrunning rain overnight Monday as a surface trough/warm
front begins to lift north out of the Tennessee Valley into the
Ohio Valley. Eastern counties may see a brief period of snow
overnight Monday before changing entirely to rain by Tuesday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will remain in place across the eastern seaboard
on Tuesday, with warm southerly flow bringing mild conditions
to the region. This ridge will break down a bit on Wednesday as
this system exits the New England coast, allowing for a period
of overrunning precipitation associated with a warm front
lifting across the area. Periods of rain are possible through
Friday, though precipitation amounts will be fairly minor as
these systems remain transitory. Expectations of a White
Christmas are sure to be dashed, as unseasonably warm
temperatures in the mid to upper 50s are possible with the warm
front lifting north across the Great Lakes. Temperatures the
remainder of the week will stabilize back to the mid-upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Moderate lake effect snowfall has diminished this evening with
some light flurries persisting across lakeshore terminals. A
ridge of high pressure and drier air will continue to move into
the region allowing for any remaining MVFR ceilings across Northeast
Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania to return to VFR by early
Saturday morning.

Ongoing southerly winds 8-12 knots will increase to 10-15 knots
sustained with gusts 20-28 knots by 15Z/Sat. Winds turn
westerly Saturday evening while gradually diminishing to 10
knots or less.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in low ceilings behind a cold front
on Sunday. Non-VFR possible in rain and/or snow showers on
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale Warnings remain in effect through this evening before winds
start to decrease as high pressure expands north across Ohio. Small
Craft Advisories will be needed east of Cleveland once the Gale
Warning expires through the remainder of the night. Low water
conditions continue on the western basin and the Low Water Advisory
has been extended until 10 PM. The lowest water level has likely
been achieved and expect water levels to rise above the critical
mark through the evening.

A very brief break in windy conditions can be expected late tonight
into Saturday morning as southerly winds increase to 20-30 knots by
Saturday afternoon. Small Craft Advisories will be needed again as
southwesterly winds veer to westerly Saturday night and northwesterly
on Sunday. Conditions will be close to Gale Force and a Gale Watch
has been issued towards New York from 4 PM Saturday to 10 AM
Sunday.

Conditions improve Monday with brisk winds Monday night into
Tuesday. Conditions become more stable on the lake Wednesday and
Thursday as temperatures trend above normal. Disruption to the ice
on the western basin of Lake Erie is likely.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for PAZ001.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for PAZ001-002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LEZ144>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...27
NEAR TERM...27
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM...27
AVIATION...13
MARINE...10