769 FXUS61 KCLE 251859 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 259 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A front will meander across the eastern Great Lakes region through early next week. The front will push south across the Ohio Valley as a cold front on Tuesday with high pressure building across the region by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Unsettled weather will continue to impact the local area through the weekend as a stationary front remains draped across the region. Periods of increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the near term along the stationary front and as multiple shortwaves move overhead. Main periods to watch for increased coverage will be late tonight/early Saturday morning and Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Forecast wise, kept chance PoPs (30-50%) in place with PoPs increasing to likely (50-70%) during higher confidence windows of increased convective coverage. Can`t rule out instances of strong to severe wind gusts in convection on Saturday as MLCAPE may approach 2000-2500 J/kg with 30-35 knots of deep layer shear in place close to the wavering surface boundary Saturday afternoon. To highlight the risk, SPC has placed the entire forecast area in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather on Saturday. Additionally, heavy rainfall remains possible as PWATs will approach 2.00 inches. WPC continues to highlight the forecast area in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall. Given the moist airmass in place and light winds overnight tonight, patchy dense fog is possible along and east of I-71 before daybreak Saturday morning. Overnight lows will remain warm as they settle in the lower 70s tonight and Saturday night. High temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80s by Saturday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Showers and thunderstorms will exit on Sunday as the front pushes out of the local area. Maintained some higher higher PoPs across southern zones (south of US-30) Sunday afternoon and evening before precipitation exits Sunday night. High temperatures rise into the upper 80s on Sunday with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. We`ll see another brief window of very warm and humid weather early next week as high temperatures in upper 80s to lower 90s combine with dew points in the mid 70s to produce maximum heat index values in the mid to upper 90s on Monday. Low temperatures settle in the low 70s Monday night. Scattered showers are possible on Monday as the front from this weekend will lift back northeast. Higher coverage in showers and thunderstorms on Monday would reduce the threat of extreme heat early next week. Will need to keep any eye on how the front evolves to determine if heat headlines will be necessary on Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tuesday will bring one final day of heat and humidity with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s. A cold front will sink south across the area on Wednesday which will usher in a cooler airmass as Canadian high pressure begins to build south across the Great Lakes region. Can`t rule out periods of showers through mid-week along the aforementioned cold front. High temperatures in the mid 80s on Wednesday will fall into the upper 70s by Thursday and Friday. Milder overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s are expected beginning Wednesday night and continuing through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/... Showers and thunderstorms have wained down for the time being and terminals have become VFR and will continue so for the first part of the TAF period. KFDY could see thunderstorms this evening between 21-24Z and winds gusting up to 20 knots and MVFR ceilings. The next round of unsettled weather will be tonight after 01Z as showers will move in across the northern portions of Ohio and dissipating before reaching PA. Ceilings will drop to MVFR during this time. For all terminals besides KCLE, there is the potential for BR tomorrow morning as winds will be fairly light and with the precipitation received today will allow for a moist lower levels dropping visibility down to MVFR. The BR should clear out by the morning and terminals should return to VFR conditions. Another round of thunderstorms are expected tomorrow mid-day through the afternoon, though timing in uncertain so kept a PROB30 group at the end of the period. The storms will be moving from west to east, so those terminals east of KCLE-KMFD line will see the potential after this TAF period. Winds are less than 10 knots, predominately out of the west but varying a little northwesterly to southwesterly at times. Can expect light winds for the majority of the period, and becoming variable overnight tonight. By tomorrow, winds will be out of the south-southwest at 5-10 knots. Outlook...Non-VFR possible each day through the weekend in scattered showers and thunderstorms with a frontal boundary lingering in the area. VFR possible briefly on Monday ahead of a cold front passage Tuesday where non-VFR is possible. && .MARINE... Winds will continue to be out of the west at around 10 knots with waves less than 2 feet across the central and eastern basin, and lower in the western basin. Overnight tonight, winds will become light and variable before being predominately out of the south-southwest by mid-morning tomorrow at less than 10 knots. Waves of less than 2 feet are expected through Saturday. Winds will increase again between 10-15 knots out of the west come Sunday morning and waves building to around 2 feet. Winds and waves will begin to subside Sunday evening into Monday morning and will be southwesterly as a weak frontal boundary lifts north across the lake through Monday. A cold front will sweep across the region through the day Tuesday with winds increasing briefly to 10-15 knots out of the northwest and waves building to around 2 feet. Onshore winds of 10 knots or less are expected afterwards and through the rest of the week && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...13 NEAR TERM...13 SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM...13 AVIATION...23 MARINE...23