108 FXUS61 KCLE 031920 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 320 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moving northeast through the Great Lakes on Wednesday will slowly drag a cold front east across the local area through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Upper level ridge and surface high pressure continue to build east over the Mid-Atlantic as a broad upper level trough approaches the eastern Great Lakes from the west. Warm overnight lows tonight settle in the low 60s east of I-71 and upper 60s to low 70s west of I-71. By Wednesday, the slow moving upper level trough and accompanying surface cold front will approach western zones. Any lingering Canadian wildfire smoke aloft should diminish as the front approaches on Wednesday. High temperatures Wednesday will rise into the mid 80s with upper 50/lower 60 degree dewpoints. This will support a few hundred Joules of MLCAPE across the region in addition to 20-30 knots of deep layer shear. SPC SWODY2 includes a portion of the forecast area, mainly along and west of I-71, in a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for severe weather. Overall forcing remains weak ahead of the surface cold front, but can`t rule out an isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorm late Wednesday afternoon/early evening. Additionally, a warm and moist environment ahead of the slow moving front with bulk layer shear parallel to the cold front will support heavy rainfall, training storms, and isolated flash flooding beginning Wednesday and continuing into the short term period. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The main message for the short term period will be a stalled front stalled out across the area with scattered rain chances. A cold front will slowly slide across the area on Thursday. This frontal boundary will eventually become parallel to the mid level steering flow on Thursday into Friday. POPs will be likely to categorical on Thursday as the front moves through. Some thunderstorms will be possible but organized convection is not anticipated at this time. The front will stall out Thursday night near or south of the Highway 30 corridor. We will keep chance POPs around Thursday night. A shortwave will move from the Central Plains into the Upper Ohio Valley late on Friday. This mid level wave will develop a weak area of low pressure along the stalled front and help pull it northward into the area Friday evening. POPs will increase once again Friday afternoon into the evening with this wave of low pressure. Given the abundant low level moisture and stalled front in the area, localized heavy rainfall may be possible. High temperatures both days will be in the middle to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An upper level trough will dig across the Great Lakes region on Saturday with a slightly cooler weather pattern. A few rain showers will be possible early on Saturday with variable clouds throughout the day. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the lower to middle 70s. Sunday will be the pick day of the weekend with high pressure in control and highs in the middle to upper 70s. The next upper level trough will dig down across the Great Lakes region on Monday with the next chance of rain and slightly cooler weather. && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/... VFR conditions persist through the TAF period with hazy conditions continuing. Wildfire smoke should remain mostly elevated with no reductions to visibility expected. Southerly winds 12-15 knots with gusts 20-22 knots at times will be possible this afternoon and early evening. Wind gusts should diminish around 23Z this evening. Southwesterly winds will increase again late Wednesday morning and afternoon with occasional gusts of 25-28 knots possible. Continued to include a period of LLWS across western TAF sites (TOL/FDY) from ~06Z to ~12Z as a LLJ of 40-50 knots moves overhead. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in periodic scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening through Friday night. && .MARINE... Overall conditions on Lake Erie will be fair to good with no headlines expected through Friday. Southerly flow 10 to 20 knots will continue tonight and Wednesday with 1 to 3 feet waves. The higher waves will be out in the open water with the offshore flow. A slow moving cold front will slide across the lake Wednesday night. Winds will become variable with the frontal passage and eventually a light northerly flow 5 to 10 knots on Thursday. The light northeasterly flow 5 to 10 knots will continue Thursday night into Friday. A wave of low pressure will move across the lake Friday night with variable or shifting winds around 10 knots. Westerly winds will return on Saturday 10 to 15 knots and 1 to 3 feet wave. The next potential for SCA may be on Saturday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...13 NEAR TERM...13 SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM...77 AVIATION...13 MARINE...77