795 FXUS61 KCLE 081141 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 741 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into the Great Lakes today as a cold front becomes stationary over the Ohio Valley region. This front lifts back north as a warm front Wednesday as a trough of low pressure crosses the Great Lakes before settling back south as a cold front Wednesday night as high pressure returns to the Great Lakes. The front will continue to waver north and south through the weekend as weak waves of low pressure ripple along it. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The cold front continues to settle south early this morning, with dew points slowly falling into the low to mid 60s. Stubborn light showers and areas of mist/drizzle are continuing in response to the weak mid-level trough axis passing overhead and lingering low-level moisture, so increased PoPs slightly before sunrise. After 10 or 11Z, the drier air will finally win out to allow for leftover drizzle/mist to end. This will set up a very nice day today as surface high pressure builds down into the Great Lakes. Lingering clouds this morning will scatter out this afternoon as the high takes control, and expect cooler highs in the low 80s with dew points staying in the more tolerable low to mid 60s. The quieter weather does not last long as the surface high weakens tonight in response to a rather strong mid/upper trough dropping into the northern Great Lakes. This will cause the old frontal boundary over the Ohio Valley to start to lift back north as a warm front. The boundary looks to make it as far north as the lakeshore or over Lake Erie Wednesday, and as the mid/upper trough axis progresses into the eastern Great Lakes by Wednesday night, it will push the boundary back southward. Increasing warm/moist/theta e advection and isentropic ascent as the boundary lifts north late tonight will likely trigger some scattered showers and thunderstorms, so increased PoPs slightly above NBM in NW and north central Ohio before sunrise. The bulk of the convection will occur Wednesday afternoon and evening as diurnal instability interacts with increasing synoptic support as the mid/upper trough axis slides just north of the region. A belt of seasonably strong 50-55 knot westerly mid-level flow rounding the base of the trough axis will lead to near 30 knots of deep layer bulk shear Wednesday afternoon and evening, especially near Lake Erie, and this combined with MLCAPE increasing to at least 1000 J/Kg will support loosely organized multicell clusters. We are not currently outlooked for any severe weather at this time, but would not be surprised to see a few severe storms with damaging winds to 60 mph, especially given what looks to be fairly dry mid-levels to boost DCAPE. Additionally, the frontal boundary aligned mostly parallel to the mid-level flow and juicy airmass (PWATS back over 1.50 inches and deep warm cloud layers) will support locally heavy rainfall rates and training convection. High temperatures Wednesday will warm back into the low to mid 80s as dew points increase back to around 70 after lows Tuesday night in the low/mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The front will settle back south as a cold front Wednesday night behind the departing mid/upper trough axis. Weak high pressure will attempt to return to the Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday, but the front will likely not make it much past the US 30 corridor. This will keep a warm and humid airmass in place, with chances for convection continuing, especially in southern areas. Allowed PoPs to gradually dry out Wednesday night, but kept chances for Thursday given diurnal heating and the boundary nearby. Lakeshore areas will probably stay dry Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated strong winds will again accompany any convection in southern areas Thursday. By Friday and Friday night, the boundary will slowly lift back north again in response to a strong mid/upper trough moving into the northern Plains. This will keep scattered convection in place, with max coverage during daytime heating Friday. Overall, exact coverage of convection is low confidence in this weakly forced pattern, so kept broad brushed NBM PoPs Wednesday night through Friday night, which gives mainly dry conditions at night and slight chance to chance PoPs in the afternoons and evenings. Highs in the low to mid 80s Thursday will warm into the mid to upper 80s Friday. Lows in the mid to upper 60s Wednesday night will be slightly cooler Thursday night when low to mid 60s are expected. Much milder lows in the mid 60s to low 70s are expected Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The movement of the stubborn frontal boundary is uncertain this weekend into the start of next week since deterministic and ensemble guidance differs with how the aforementioned northern Plains shortwave trough ejects. The boundary will likely remain somewhere close to the region through Saturday, so NBM PoPs for convection look reasonable. These PoPs may end up higher or lower depending on how the upstream trough potentially interacts with the boundary. By Sunday and Monday, confidence is starting to increase that broad and flat mid/upper ridging will start to build over the central and eastern CONUS as a Bermuda High strengthens near the Southeast U.S. coast. This could eventually support an even warmer and drier forecast than current NBM guidance, but for now, expect temperatures to mainly continue in the mid to upper 80s with periodic convection, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. && .AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... A mix of clouds MVFR and IFR clouds remain across all but far NW Ohio. Where skies have cleared in NW Ohio patchy fog remains early this morning, including half mile or less visibility at FDY at 12Z. Visibilities are expected to improve quickly with a gradual lifting of ceilings into the MVFR range this morning. Skies will scatter out from the north between 17-19Z at most terminals. Clouds will start to work back into NW Ohio late tonight ahead of the next system but will remain VFR through the TAF period. Light west to northwest winds are expected today. Winds will go calm or develop out of the southeast after 00Z Wednesday. Outlook...Non-VFR will be possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday, with the best chance during the afternoon. && .MARINE... Generally good marine conditions with light winds and waves expected this week. Winds will decrease this morning as high pressure builds over the region. Waves near 2 feet early will drop to a foot or less this afternoon. Winds develop out of the south at 10 knots or less Wednesday, then veer to northwesterly behind a weak cold front Thursday morning. High pressure returns Thursday night into Friday. A system does look to cross the Central Great Lakes over the weekend but there is uncertainty in the track and strength and the resultant winds with this system. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Garuckas NEAR TERM...Garuckas SHORT TERM...Garuckas LONG TERM...Garuckas AVIATION...10 MARINE...10