401 FXUS61 KCLE 121734 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 134 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move south through the area today and stall across the Upper Ohio Valley. This front will linger into Sunday. Weak high pressure may briefly build south across the Great Lakes by early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 915 AM Update... No changes this morning. Previous Discussion... The main concern for the near term period will be scattered showers and thunderstorms developing along a stalled frontal boundary across the Upper Ohio Valley on Friday. Although heavy rain will accompany these storms, the overall flooding threat should remain minimal. Current radar and surface observations reveal a weak cold moving south across Lake Erie this morning. For the most part, at least initially, this front appears mainly dry as the low-level moisture remains minimal. However, there could be enough lift and moisture this afternoon to produce an isolated shower and/or thunderstorm as the front begins to stall just south of Lake Erie. Above-average temperatures are expected today ahead of the front with highs generally in the mid-80s. Otherwise, attention turns towards late tonight into Friday as a low pressure system near the ArkLaTex region moves northeast into the Missouri Valley, advecting rich low and mid- level moisture, depicted by the Advected Layer Precipitable Water satellite product, into the area. Surface dew points are expected to rise into the mid to perhaps upper 60s with convection initiating along a theta-e gradient across Northeast Ohio Friday afternoon and evening. There remains some uncertainty in terms of coverage so kept scattered mention at this time, though could certainly see PoPs increasing in future updates, particularly closer to the OH/PA border. Convection will have little mid and upper-level forcing to work with, resulting in efficient and slow- moving rain-makers with PWATs greater than 1.50 inches and daytime warm cloud depths exceeding 10kft. Will need to keep tabs on QPF trends over the next few model cycles, but as this time, rainfall totals with even the heaviest and most persistent thunderstorms should remain below 2 inches. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The overall mid to upper level weather pattern will be zonal to a slight west-northwest flow by this weekend. A weak stationary frontal boundary will be draped from west to east across the area Friday night into Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be around Friday night with chance to likely POPs. The rain chances will increase to likely to widespread showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. At this time, organized strong or severe storms are not expected. There could be a localized heavy rainfall threat due to the slow nature of this weather system and stationary front. The stationary front will drift southward Saturday. Rain chances will decrease from north to south as the frontal boundary temporarily moves southward. The frontal boundary may waffle back northward on Sunday with an increase in rain chances from south to north. The highest POPs on Sunday will be along and south of the highway 30 corridor. High temperatures will be in the middle to upper 70s on Saturday and Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The weather pattern will continue to favor westerly to west- northwest flow for early and middle next week. Scattered rain chances will be around Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures on Monday will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Some upper level ridging tries to build in from the south by the middle of next week. Temperatures will warm up into the lower to middle 80s. There could be some upper 80s by the middle of next week if the summer ridge becomes stronger into our region. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/... VFR for the region. Wind directions vary with a cold front now stationary just south of the lakeshore, but most reports are under 10kts this afternoon. Cirrus clouds moving through from the west. Veil of cirrus to thicken overnight. Isolated showers possible after 09Z Friday, not too few in number for mention in the TAF. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms later in the day Friday, becoming more likely on Saturday in widespread showers and thunderstorms, lingering through Sunday. Non-VFR possible again in scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday afternoon and evening. && .MARINE... A frontal boundary will slow down and become nearly stationary along the southern lakeshore of Lake Erie today. Winds behind the boundary will become north-northeast at 10-15 knots today and tonight. This boundary will continue to sag south Friday and become nearly stationary across the Ohio River Valley through the weekend. During this entire time, winds will persist from the north-northeast generally between 5-15 knots. By Monday or Tuesday, model guidance indicate this boundary will finally lift northward as a warm front. This will allow for winds to consistently gain a more southerly component by early to middle next week. At this time, not expecting any marine headlines through the period. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kahn NEAR TERM...Kahn/26 SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM...77 AVIATION...26 MARINE...77