939 FXUS61 KCLE 091315 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 915 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move east through the area tonight, followed by high pressure on Tuesday through Thursday. Another cold front will move south through the area by late Thursday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 915 AM Update... Showers continue to expand east across the area. A few embedded rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out this morning, but the better chance of thunderstorms will occur with peak diurnal instability this afternoon. There`s still some uncertainty in how much destabilization occurs through this afternoon; shear will be optimal, but widespread coverage and rain may hinder destabilization and could limit the severe weather threat. Will continue to monitor radar, satellite, and mesoanalysis trends in the upcoming hours, but in the meantime the forecast remains unchanged. Previous Discussion... The primary concern for the near term period will be the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, mainly east of the I-77 corridor and roughly between 1 and 5 PM. Hazards with any stronger thunderstorms include damaging wind gusts, large hail, torrential rain, and a tornado or two. This environment will be characterized by high- shear, low CAPE and thus, the degree of instability in the warm sector will be the main uncertainty with this event. Current water vapor imagery depicts several shortwaves embedded within a broad, closed upper-level low across northern Minnesota this morning. The first of these shortwaves can be seen in the Lake Michigan vicinity which is driving an area of rain and embedded thunderstorms across portions of central Indiana this morning. Anticipate this area of showers and storms to arrive across the I-75/71 corridors near or shortly after sunrise. A second and more potent shortwave, currently visualized across southern Iowa and northern Missouri, is expected to arrive by early to mid- afternoon. The latest HREF instability parameters indicate a ~50% chance of SBCAPE > 1000 J/kg combined with 40 to 50 knots of bulk shear in our easternmost tier of counties adjacent to the OH/PA border. This will be the main area to watch for any strong to severe storms this afternoon, though will be largely contingent upon how much surface destabilization occurs prior to convection. In terms of hazards, damaging wind gusts appear most likely, although an embedded tornado or two within any line segments is also possible. Outside of any isolated or stand-alone cells, large hail appears the least likely. Will also need to watch rainfall rates and for any areas of training convection as southwest boundary layer flow will parallel storm orientation. The latest HREF PMM 3-hour rainfall amounts aren`t particularly concerning, though could see a few narrow swaths of up to 2 inches, particularly near the OH/PA border or across inland Northwest Pennsylvania. The cold front will sweep east through the area late this evening and overnight, ushering in a drier airmass for Tuesday. Lingering surface troughing will battle with building surface high pressure on Tuesday, leading to a diurnal cloud deck in the afternoon as temperatures rise into the lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... High pressure builds into the Ohio Valley Tuesday night through Wednesday before drifting off to the mid-Atlantic region on Thursday. Persistent flow out of the southwest should result in temperatures reaching the 80s on Wednesday and Thursday, with minor moisture advection allowing for isolated showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A weak front moves into the region Friday, lingering across the area through the weekend as a weak low moves across it Saturday and Sunday. As such, have PoPs through the whole weekend, with the better chance of more persistent rain showers on Saturday and Sunday. And showers and storms on Friday may be a bit more isolated/scattered. Temperatures depend on the placement of the front, but should generally be at least in the mid to upper 70s, with low 80s possible in our southern forecast area. There is a low probability for stronger storms and heavy rain. && .AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Mainly VFR across the TAF sites this morning, though MVFR vsbys should become more common over the next several hours as an area of steady rain moves northeast into the area. Occasional lightning strikes have been noted with this area of rain, though recent satellite imagery suggests that lightning should become less likely as the complex continues northeast into northern Ohio. Following this area of rain, thunderstorms are most likely to impact CAK/YNG this afternoon with IFR vsbys, gusty winds, and perhaps large hail. Direct tsra impacts at CLE/MFD remain uncertain at this time, although IFR vsby probs are increasing. Winds are generally out of the south to southwest this morning, 5 to 10 knots. Winds will increase out of the south to southwest through this morning and into the afternoon, 10 to 12 knots with periodic gusts up to 20 knots possible. Winds will begin to shift towards the west behind a cold front overnight. Outlook...Mainly VFR expected Tuesday through Thursday. Non-VFR may return in scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday. && .MARINE... Southwest flow of 10-15 knots persists through at least Wednesday night. A cold frontal passage may result in brief, localized enhancements to around 20 knots tonight. Winds flip around to out of the northeast on Thursday and Friday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kahn NEAR TERM...Kahn/15 SHORT TERM...Saunders LONG TERM...Saunders AVIATION...Kahn MARINE...Saunders