899 FXUS61 KCLE 131119 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 719 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move south across the area today followed by high pressure building in behind it on Thursday. High pressure will influence the local area through Saturday. A weak frontal boundary will settle south towards the Eastern Great Lakes on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Water vapor imagery shows a trough moving into the Central Great Lakes Region this morning. Low pressure extends from James Bay to southeast Michigan. Moisture has been advecting north within the deep southwest flow ahead of the trough overnight with widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across central and eastern portions of the forecast area. While lightning will be on the down trend over the next several hours as the better shortwave energy heads towards Buffalo, expect to see rain linger across eastern portions of the forecast area through the early morning hours. A break in precipitation is likely by late morning into early afternoon before showers and thunderstorms fill in along the southeastward moving front this afternoon. Despite some lingering cloud cover, ML CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg are likely by 18Z and the front should support initiation somewhere along a line from Tiffin to Cleveland before moving southeast through the afternoon. PW values will still be above 1.75 inches this afternoon and storm motion will only be on the order of 10-20 mph. Training along the front is possible and heavy rain is expected with thunderstorms. All but NW Ohio remains highlighted in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall and will need to monitor the potential for localized flooding. The main window of concern will be from 1 PM to 7 PM with activity ending from north to south. The potential for an isolated shower or thunderstorm may linger across western Lake Erie and into NW Ohio where the low level flow is weaker and some surface convergence may persist into this evening. Weak instability looks to hold over the western basin into the evening. High pressure strengthens over the Great Lakes on Thursday with cooler and drier air pushing south into the local area. High temperatures will drop back into the low 80s with a light north wind. Dewpoints falling into the low to mid 60s will also provide a break from the high humidity. Will hold onto a slight chance of a thunderstorm closer to central Ohio but that should be isolated in nature. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Thursday night is on track to be the coolest night of the week with lows ranging from the mid 50s in NW Pennsylvania to near 60 degrees in Ohio. While some shortwave energy crosses the Central Great Lakes on Friday, the overall trend is for the ridge to build aloft. The trend through the short term will be for dry conditions and warming temperatures. A warm front lifts back north of the area on Friday night with temperatures on Saturday ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s again. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The long term starts with a ridge extending north to the Upper Midwest with 500mb heights of 591 dm over southern Lake Michigan. A fairly strong shortwave trough looks to round the ridge and cross the eastern Great Lakes which may push a frontal boundary south into the area on Sunday. Models are starting to come into better agreement with this feature and have lowered highs across the northeastern portion of the forecast area. If the frontal boundary is in the vicinity on Sunday then there could be a chance of thunderstorms but coverage may be limited by the warm air already in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. The ridge will tend to expand eastward on Monday before another shortwave rounds the ridge again on Tuesday. This may result in an oscillating front in the vicinity and placement will influence temperatures. Timing and evolution of these features will need to be monitored in the later periods and will hold onto a low 20-30 pop in the forecast. && .AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... A lull in showers/storms is expected this morning before additional showers and thunderstorms develop along a cold front that will begin to move southeast across the area this afternoon into early this evening. The best chance of showers and storms will be at KMFD/KCAK/KYNG and have showers with VCTS in addition to TEMPOs for non-VFR conditions in thunderstorms for a few hours. Confidence is lower at KFDY/KCLE/ERI so have only included a PROB30 group for the same general timeframe. Currently thinking that showers and storms will fire to the southeast of KTOL. There`s still quite a bit of uncertainty in the coverage of showers/storms so amendments will likely be needed as confidence increase over the next several hours. VFR is largely expected outside of thunderstorms through at least this evening and patchy fog may develop at inland terminals late tonight/early Thursday morning. The best chance of non-VFR conditions in fog is at KYNG, however fog may be added to other terminals in subsequent updates. Light south/southwest winds this morning will become northwesterly and increase to 5 to 10 knots this afternoon into this evening. Light northeast winds are expected by late tonight with sustained winds of 5 to 10 knots more likely along the lakeshore overnight. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. && .MARINE... A cold front will cross the lake today through tonight. Winds ahead of the front will be out of the southwest at around 5 to 10 knots before becoming northwesterly behind the front this evening and northeasterly early Thursday morning. Winds will likely increase to 10 to 15 knots for a period Thursday morning. Northeast winds 10 knots or less are expected Thursday afternoon through Friday before shifting to the southeast Friday night through Saturday. A lake breeze is likely during the afternoon Friday and Saturday which will result in a period of onshore flow in nearshore zones. Flow will become southwesterly and then northwesterly as a cold front moves across the lake late Saturday into Sunday. Winds and waves may be higher in showers/thunderstorms that develop over the lake through this afternoon. Conditions are favorable for waterspouts with the cold front today into tonight. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...10 NEAR TERM...10 SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM...10 AVIATION...15 MARINE...15