062 FXUS61 KILN 091419 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1019 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Showers with isolated storms are expected through late afternoon before drier conditions return through midweek. Near normal temperatures are expected through midweek before warmer and more humid air returns to the region by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. This return to a warmer and more humid pattern will bring renewed daily chances for showers and storms Friday through Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Stacked deep low pressure will track east-southeast across Great Lakes thru tonight. In response to a lead shortwave a low level southerly jet will increases to 35 to 40 kts. As moisture/clouds and forcing increase - A narrow band of showers with embedded thunderstorms to move across the area today. Diurnally driven destabilization to take place east of the I-71 corridor. This instability combined with strengthening mid level flow may lead to a few stronger updrafts. Strong to severe storms will be mainly east of ILN/s area but an isold strong to severe storm with damaging winds will be possible across the far east this afternoon. The main axis of precipitation will shift east with chances decreasing from west to east by late afternoon. A few additional showers will be possible across west central Ohio late in the day into the evening as another shortwave rotates around the mid level low and a secondary front moves into the area. Highs today influenced by clouds and pcpn will top out in the mid and upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... While conditions will trend dry/sunny late in the daytime, a narrow axis of clouds/ISO SHRA coincident with the actual front will drift to the SE into the local area after sunset this evening. Do think there will be a few ISO SHRA lingering about near/W of I-71 through midnight before activity wanes altogether late into the night. Temps tonight dip into the lower to mid 50s as /much/ drier air filters in from the W. We will be firmly in the post-frontal environment Tuesday as the large mid/upper level trof axis swings through early in the day. Highs on Tuesday will top out in the mid/upper 70s with a mix of sun and clouds. A light westerly breeze will be maintained through the daytime amidst a well-mixed BL and steep LL lapse rates. PWats will dip to about ~50-60% of seasonal norms through the short term period. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Wnw flow aloft will prevail through Sunday. An upper trough will extends along the Ohio River to the Mississippi, then south towards ARKLATX. This trough will cross the CWA early Mon with nw flow found in its wake. A dry forecast is in store through Friday morning with surface high pressure residing over the CWA and then orienting along the Appalachians Wed night and Thurs. A warm front develops w-e north of the CWA early Thurs and becomes more pronounced as a surface low tracks east along it on Saturday. The front becomes more diffuse, moves s, and orients itself more sw-ne from Sun-Mon. A surface low crosses the CWA on Mon as the front moves east ahead of the upper level trough. As Friday progresses, rain chances increase and linger through Monday, with a cold frontal passage marking the end of that particular wetter pattern. The weekend won`t see prevailing precip as breaks in the rain are more than likely. There just doesn`t seem to be a signal from Fri through early Mon that breaks through as a dry period. Models offer widely varying solutions for the coming weekend, so confidence could be better. Temperatures rise and max out in the mid-upper 80s on Thurs, then drop slowly to finish with Sun-Mon closer to 80 across the CWA. Low temps in the upper 50s Tues night rise to the mid-upper 60s Fri and Sat and level off to the mid 60s Sun night. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Widespread SHRA, with ISO embedded TSRA, will overspread the region from the WSW through 15z. This activity will impact KDAY earliest before spreading to the E rather quickly into early afternoon. Steady SHRA will promote a moistening of the BL, allowing for CIGs to lower from VFR to MVFR by late morning into mid afternoon. Some MVFR VSBYs are also expected during the heavier pockets of pcpn. The back edge of the steady SHRA shield will shift E by 21z, but there are some indications for ISO activity to develop /behind/ the primary band between about 19z-22z, so have kept the SHRA potential going in the fcst a bit longer to account for this potential, particularly for ern sites. A rapid clearing is expected area-wide by/past 22z, with skies going mostly clear by early evening. This being said, clouds will be on the increase once again around 06z as the front approaches from the NW. With this, there is also a signal for a very narrow/thin line of SHRA along the boundary to move in from the NW leading up to 06z Tuesday, so have included a PROB30 at KDAY for now to account for this potential, too. However, this activity should dwindle past 06z as the front continues to drift to the SE through the remainder of the local area. Light SW wind around 5kts is expected through 15z. WSW winds will increase to 10-12kts, with gusts 15-20kts, between 18z and 00z before subsiding again by/past sunset. Winds will go out of the WNW following the FROPA by 12z Tuesday. OUTLOOK...Storms will be possible again Friday night into Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...KC