629 FXUS61 KILN 080230 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1030 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front this evening will provide much colder temperatures tonight into Tuesday as high pressure builds in behind it. The high will move east Tuesday night. The next weather system will affect the area by mid week, bringing an increasing chance for precipitation. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Mid level digging across the Great Lakes with associated surface low tracking thru the eastern Great LAkes. Surface cold front extending south from the low has pushed south thru ILN/s area late this aftn/erly evening. A band of post frontal clouds and a few mixed rain and snow showers are being observed across the southern half of the FA. The clouds and pcpn will continue shifting south of the area with pcpn ending around midnight and clouds scattering out from the northwest. In the wake of the front winds have shifted to the northwest-north and increased with gusts to around 30 mph. The winds will decrease some but still remain a bit gusty up to around 20 mph at times. Under good CAA cold temperatures drop to lows in the lower and middle 20s. Therefore...have continued the freeze warning overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will build into the middle Ohio Valley on Tuesday, then move off to the east Tuesday night. Mostly clear skies will be offset by a cold airmass on Tuesday, so highs will only reach into the 40s. Radiational cooling will bring another night to near or below freezing temperatures Tuesday night. There could be some increase in high clouds late ahead of the next shortwave. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure over eastern Ohio will drift eastward during the day as a low pressure system approaches from Missouri. A warm front will develop over northern OH/IN, with rain overspreading the northern half of the CWA Wed afternoon/evening as the low moves towards the IL/IN border. Overnight, showers will continue in the north and overspread the south with the low situated between Muncie and Ft. Wayne at daybreak. Showers and thunderstorms from this system will end from west-east later overnight or early Thursday morning. This low will pass through northwest Ohio, and a trailing cold front will cross the CWA sometime in the afternoon. Some cold pool showers will be possible behind the front as a digging upper trough introduces a broad source of lift to a reasonably saturated lower atmosphere. From Thursday night through Friday, some shower chances need to remain in the forecast, with a higher possibility located in southern/eastern CWA. This is due to the axis of the upper trough remaining over the region through Friday. In the wake of the low, high pressure will build over the Midwest Friday night, working into the Ohio a bit later on Saturday night. Along and behind the surface high is upper level ridging that will keep dry air over the Ohio Valley through Sunday night. On Monday, the ridge moves east/breaks down as a strong stacked low pressure system over western Lake Superior could bring warm sector showers ahead of a pressure trough. Temperatures 45-55 on Wed will warm to 55-65 Thurs. Thurs temps could be a bit warmer given the possibility of an earlier frontal passage and/or cooling effects from shower activity that is possible through the day. North flow on Friday with continued cloud cover will see temperatures only reach the mid 50s, warm to the upper 50s on Saturday with the building surface high and some breaks in the cloud cover. Building high pressure through a deep layer on Sunday will make it the warmest of the period with readings in the mid 60s under dry and generally cloud-free conditions. Overnight lows will drop from the low-mid 40s Wed night, upper 30s to near 40 Thurs night, and mid 30s Fri/Sat nights. Sun night will be warmer and in the upper 40s as flow turns southerly. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Cold front is moving through ILN/s FA with a narrow band of rain showers. Winds have shifted to the northwest-north and increased to 16-18 kts with gusts approaching 30 kts this evening. Expect clouds to remain VFR generally between 4000-5000 feet. Clouds scatter out after 06Z and winds remain gusty up to 20 kts overnight. Surface high pressure builds into the region from the northwest Tuesday. Expect few to scattered VFR clouds Tuesday with northwest winds around 10 kts. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions possible Wednesday into Thursday. MVFR ceilings possible Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for KYZ089>100. IN...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for INZ050-058-059- 066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...AR