811
FXUS61 KCLE 080136
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
936 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front swings southeast across the region through this
evening before high pressure builds overhead Tuesday into
Wednesday. Low pressure moves into the Ohio Valley region
Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Not too many changes after the hefty earlier forecast update.
The cold front is through the forecast area and much of the
synoptic snow is exiting. Upstream satellite and radar show lake
effect snow developing off Lakes Huron, Michigan, and Superior
and some clouds are starting to develop over Lake Erie. Lake
effect snow will develop overnight and mostly be a problem for
NW PA with some more scattered snow showers in far NE OH.

630 PM Update...
Large changes to the forecast this evening. A potent cold front
is moving through the forecast area with a band of rain that is
quickly changing over to snow. Have the precipitation type
transitioning to all snow over the next hour or two and
accumulations up to a quick inch are possible. Winds are
substantially picking up with the frontal passage with gusts to
40 kt over the next hour or so. For overnight, there will be a
brief reprieve, but the new air mass across the region should
allow for lake effect snow to generate and move into NW PA and
extreme NE OH and have bumped up PoPs substantially with some
categorical PoPs into interior NW PA. Snowfall totals by late
tomorrow morning with be in the 1-3+" range for NW PA with
Trace-1" for NE OH. Accumulations will favor grassy areas and
elevated surfaces over the roadways, although roads in NW PA
could see some accumulations if rates overnight can overcome the
warm start to road temperatures. Slippery conditions could
redevelop in this area for the Tuesday morning commute.

Original Discussion...
A strong cold front currently draped across Northwest Ohio will
continue to push southeast across the local area through this
evening. Rain showers this afternoon and early evening will
transition to light/moderate snow showers this evening as 850mb
temperatures drop to the -10 to -15C range. Total accumulations
across much of the eastern half of the forecast area should
remain below an inch. Higher amounts between 1-2 inches are
possible across Northwest Pennsylvania where lake effect snow
and a Lake Huron connection may stick around through Tuesday
morning. Otherwise, snow showers will largely exit the region
overnight tonight as a ridge of high pressure begins to build
overhead from the west.

Chilly overnight lows dip into the mid 20s areawide tonight and
Tuesday night. Highs on Wednesday will vary with mid to upper
30s across Central and Northwest Ohio and low to mid 30s across
Northeast Ohio where lake effect cloud cover lingers through the
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The mid and upper level weather pattern will be a broad west-
northwest flow during the middle of this week. A shortwave will
track along in this west-northwest flow across the Upper Midwest on
Wednesday. At this surface, a low pressure system will develop near
the Cornbelt of the Midwest Wednesday. Rain showers will develop
across the Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes region Wednesday
into Wednesday night. The track of this low will move right over
northern Ohio before it pivots towards the eastern Great Lakes
region on Thursday. Rain showers will be likely late Wednesday
through Thursday with average QPF of 0.50 to 0.75 on an inch of
rainfall expected. POPs will tapering off from west to east Thursday
night. High temperatures will only be in the middle to upper 40s on
Wednesday. Overnight low temperatures will be in the middle to upper
30s Wednesday night. High temperatures will in the lower to middle
50s on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level trough will be over Great Lakes region down towards
the Tennessee River Valley on Friday. Underneath this trough, it
will be overcast and cool on Friday with a few lingering rain
showers. High temperatures will only be in the middle to upper 40s.
The upper level trough begins to pull away on Saturday with
conditions slowly improving. Upper level ridging moves in by Sunday
with sunshine returning by the end of the weekend. High temperatures
on Sunday will climb into the middle 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
A strong cold front moving through the region has allowed for
non-VFR in snow and low ceilings and strong northwest winds with
gusts to 40 kts. The gusts are trending down and the amount of
IFR/LIFR in snow is also trending down over the next couple of
hours. However, MVFR conditions will be persistent with low
clouds off Lake Erie and some residual lake effect snow showers.
Some IFR conditions remain possible for KERI overnight and into
Tuesday with a lake effect snow connection extending from Lake
Huron. High pressure building in from the west for Tuesday will
eventually kick out the lake effect snow and the lower clouds
across the region and the trend everywhere will be to VFR. A
cold air mass over the lakes with some moisture should still
keep some clouds around for Tuesday, but there should settle
around the 5 kft range. Winds will continue to favor a northwest
direction across the region, but could back somewhat more
westerly on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible Wednesday night through Saturday with
a pair of systems moving through the region bringing lower
ceilings and visibility with rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds this afternoon will quickly shift from the northwest
15 to 30 knots behind a strong cold front. Small Craft Advisories
have been issued for these gusty northwest winds and higher waves
late this afternoon through Tuesday. Northwest winds 15 to 30 knots
will continue tonight and decrease to 10 to 20 knots during the
Tuesday. High pressure builds in over the lake Tuesday night with
lighter winds. A light southeast winds 5 to 10 knots will return on
Wednesday. Winds will increase Wednesday night 15 to 20 knots from
the east-southeast. An additional Small Craft Advisory will likely
be needed Wednesday night through Thursday if not into Friday. East
winds 15 to 20 knots will continue on Thursday becoming northwest 15
knots late in the day. Northerly winds 10 to 20 knots will continue
Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ145>147.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ148-149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...77