629
FXUS61 KILN 080230
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1030 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front this evening will provide much colder temperatures
tonight into Tuesday as high pressure builds in behind it. The high
will move east Tuesday night. The next weather system will affect the
area by mid week, bringing an increasing chance for precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Mid level digging across the Great Lakes with associated surface low
tracking thru the eastern Great LAkes. Surface cold front extending
south from the low has pushed south thru ILN/s area late this
aftn/erly evening. A band of post frontal clouds and a few mixed rain
and snow showers are being observed across the southern half of the
FA. The clouds and pcpn will continue shifting south of the area with
pcpn ending around midnight and clouds scattering out from the
northwest. In the wake of the front winds have shifted to the
northwest-north and increased with gusts to around 30 mph. The winds
will decrease some but still remain a bit gusty up to around 20 mph
at times.

Under good CAA cold temperatures drop to lows in the lower and
middle 20s. Therefore...have continued the freeze warning overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build into the middle Ohio Valley on Tuesday, then
move off to the east Tuesday night. Mostly clear skies will be offset
by a cold airmass on Tuesday, so highs will only reach into the 40s.
Radiational cooling will bring another night to near or below
freezing temperatures Tuesday night. There could be some increase in
high clouds late ahead of the next shortwave.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure over eastern Ohio will drift eastward during the day
as a low pressure system approaches from Missouri. A warm front will
develop over northern OH/IN, with rain overspreading the northern
half of the CWA Wed afternoon/evening as the low moves towards the
IL/IN border. Overnight, showers will continue in the north and
overspread the south with the low situated between Muncie and Ft.
Wayne at daybreak.

Showers and thunderstorms from this system will end from west-east
later overnight or early Thursday morning. This low will pass
through northwest Ohio, and a trailing cold front will cross the CWA
sometime in the afternoon. Some cold pool showers will be possible
behind the front as a digging upper trough introduces a broad source
of lift to a reasonably saturated lower atmosphere. From Thursday
night through Friday, some shower chances need to remain in the
forecast, with a higher possibility located in southern/eastern CWA.
This is due to the axis of the upper trough remaining over the
region through Friday.

In the wake of the low, high pressure will build over the Midwest
Friday night, working into the Ohio a bit later on Saturday night.
Along and behind the surface high is upper level ridging that will
keep dry air over the Ohio Valley through Sunday night. On Monday,
the ridge moves east/breaks down as a strong stacked low pressure
system over western Lake Superior could bring warm sector showers
ahead of a pressure trough.

Temperatures 45-55 on Wed will warm to 55-65 Thurs. Thurs temps
could be a bit warmer given the possibility of an earlier frontal
passage and/or cooling effects from shower activity that is possible
through the day. North flow on Friday with continued cloud cover
will see temperatures only reach the mid 50s, warm to the upper 50s
on Saturday with the building surface high and some breaks in the
cloud cover. Building high pressure through a deep layer on Sunday
will make it the warmest of the period with readings in the mid 60s
under dry and generally cloud-free conditions.

Overnight lows will drop from the low-mid 40s Wed night, upper 30s
to near 40 Thurs night, and mid 30s Fri/Sat nights. Sun night will
be warmer and in the upper 40s as flow turns southerly.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cold front is moving through ILN/s FA with a narrow band of rain
showers. Winds have shifted to the northwest-north and increased to
16-18 kts with gusts approaching 30 kts this evening. Expect clouds
to remain VFR generally between 4000-5000 feet. Clouds scatter out
after 06Z and winds remain gusty up to 20 kts overnight.

Surface high pressure builds into the region from the northwest
Tuesday. Expect few to scattered VFR clouds Tuesday with northwest
winds around 10 kts.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions possible Wednesday into Thursday.
MVFR ceilings possible Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...AR