874 FXUS61 KILN 061847 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 247 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will approach the region this evening, and move across the area Monday into Monday evening. This till bring a renewed chance of showers and some thunderstorms. The front will stall near the Ohio River and then dissipate into midweek, keeping periodic chances of showers/storms through the first part of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As mentioned in previous discussions, seeing some widely scattered showers/storms in the narrow plume of a southern origin moisture stream and mid level forcing. Keeping slight chance of showers/storms generally east of I-70 and south of I-70 with a diurnal focus. Winds getting a little gusty to 20kts ahead of the approaching frontal boundary across the northwest forecast area, with expectation that prefrontal convection to diminish a bit as it enters the forecast area through the late afternoon and into the early evening. As the frontal boundary will extend from northern Ohio into central Indiana overnight, continue to keep mention of widely scattered showers with a possible rumble of thunder overnight closer to the boundary across the north. Overnight lows again in the lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... With the weakening mid level shortwave and associated frontal boundary sagging south into the area on Monday, expecting diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms to develop near and south of the boundary, with the greatest coverage generally along and south of the I-70 corridor. Deepening moisture will pool ahead of the frontal boundary, with PW values approaching 1.9, or above the 90th percentile for early June. This combined with relatively slow storm motion and 0-6km shear at less than 15 kts will warrant a mention of heavy rain and a potential for isolated localized flooding across especially the south. As with the shear, other severe parameters remain weak, but can`t rule out strong winds associated with a downdraft or outflow boundary interaction. The greater concern will be pockets of heavy rain in slow moving storms. Expect diminished shower/storm coverage Monday night, but still a slight change across the southern forecast area. Overnight lows in the upper 60s. With increasing clouds at peak heating, not overly confident in heat index values reaching 100, though will still mention this potential across the south as well. Highs in the mid 80s north of the boundary, with near 90 to lower 90s across the south. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... After the cold front moves across much of the area on Monday, confidence is fairly high that the better moisture will placed over the southern most locations (northern Kentucky & southern Ohio) of the area. These areas should expect scattered downpours and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, more isolated showers/downpours are forecast. Given the high moisture (PWATs >1.8") content across the south, locally heavy rainfall leading to isolated flash flooding remains possible. There is the possibility of a reprieve from the more rich moisture on Wednesday due to the lingering air mass behind the front, however, the area will not see dry conditions. Another weak shortwave is expected to move into the region, driving downpours and thunderstorms once again. Depending on the strength of the shortwave, there is some potential that the more rich moisture will make a faster return, especially for Wednesday evening. So while WPC currently doesn`t have a mention for locally heavy rainfall in the DAY 4 outlook (WED) for the local area, this could change depending on how the pattern trends. For Thursday, uncertainty increases as the GEFS/ECMWF ENS diverge on the pattern evolution. Since the ECMWF ENS are weaker with the trough, the dryness on Wednesday leads to a wetter solution on Thursday when compared to the GEFS. Overall, the big picture remains the same as far as the forecast goes. There will likely be more downpours/thunderstorms on Thursday, with the details on locally heavy rainfall risks likely delayed until the day gets closer. While there will still be a weak system that lingers in the area Friday, the primary feature to watch will be a stronger trough moving into the northern Plains Friday and eventually into the Great Lakes Saturday. This would present the opportunity for a more strongly forced system for next weekend. Given the clouds and rainfall in the forecast, temperatures are expected to be near to slightly above normal throughout the entire extended. Some days may be a few degrees cooler than currently forecast depending on the amount of lingering cloud cover from the previous day`s convective activity. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Scattered VFR cu across the area, with isolated showers and thunderstorms across the south, so have kept a prob30 through about 21z for KILN/KCVG/KLUK as it`ll be close enough to these locations. The approaching frontal boundary sinking down from the Great Lakes will be weakening and entering the region with the loss of daytime instability, so not expecting precip until after 15z. South winds will become SW and increase to near 10kts for Monday. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible, mainly in the afternoon and evening, Tuesday through Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...McGinnis AVIATION...JDR