859 FXUS61 KCLE 260009 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 809 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A front will meander across the eastern Great Lakes region through early next week. The front will push south across the Ohio Valley as a cold front on Tuesday with high pressure building across the region by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Unsettled weather will continue to impact the local area through the weekend as a stationary front remains draped across the region. Periods of increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the near term along the stationary front and as multiple shortwaves move overhead. Main periods to watch for increased coverage will be late tonight/early Saturday morning and Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Forecast wise, kept chance PoPs (30-50%) in place with PoPs increasing to likely (50-70%) during higher confidence windows of increased convective coverage. Can`t rule out instances of strong to severe wind gusts in convection on Saturday as MLCAPE may approach 2000-2500 J/kg with 30-35 knots of deep layer shear in place close to the wavering surface boundary Saturday afternoon. To highlight the risk, SPC has placed the entire forecast area in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather on Saturday. Additionally, heavy rainfall remains possible as PWATs will approach 2.00 inches. WPC continues to highlight the forecast area in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall. Given the moist airmass in place and light winds overnight tonight, patchy dense fog is possible along and east of I-71 before daybreak Saturday morning. Overnight lows will remain warm as they settle in the lower 70s tonight and Saturday night. High temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80s by Saturday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Showers and thunderstorms will exit on Sunday as the front pushes out of the local area. Maintained some higher higher PoPs across southern zones (south of US-30) Sunday afternoon and evening before precipitation exits Sunday night. High temperatures rise into the upper 80s on Sunday with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. We`ll see another brief window of very warm and humid weather early next week as high temperatures in upper 80s to lower 90s combine with dew points in the mid 70s to produce maximum heat index values in the mid to upper 90s on Monday. Low temperatures settle in the low 70s Monday night. Scattered showers are possible on Monday as the front from this weekend will lift back northeast. Higher coverage in showers and thunderstorms on Monday would reduce the threat of extreme heat early next week. Will need to keep any eye on how the front evolves to determine if heat headlines will be necessary on Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tuesday will bring one final day of heat and humidity with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s. A cold front will sink south across the area on Wednesday which will usher in a cooler airmass as Canadian high pressure begins to build south across the Great Lakes region. Can`t rule out periods of showers through mid-week along the aforementioned cold front. High temperatures in the mid 80s on Wednesday will fall into the upper 70s by Thursday and Friday. Milder overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s are expected beginning Wednesday night and continuing through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Confidence in the timing and coverage of showers and thunderstorms is low over the next 24 hours at all terminals. There will be some in and out mist late tonight resulting in some MVFR visibilities, but in general, conditions will mainly stay VFR outside of showers and thunderstorms. A batch of showers and thunderstorms currently over Indiana may move into the KTOL and KFDY areas in the 02 to 04Z timeframe this evening, with resultant periods of MVFR or lower conditions. It is uncertain if this activity will reach KMFD, KCLE, KCAK, and KYNG, but generally expect showers to expand in these areas late tonight and early Saturday morning as the frontal boundary starts to lift back northward as a warm front, so have periods of showers and MVFR in the 05-12Z time period at those terminals. Most of it will stay south of KERI, so kept the precip mention to VCSH there late tonight and Saturday morning. After a lull Saturday morning, another round of showers and thunderstorms should develop overhead or move in from the west for the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave and associated weak surface low traverse the warm front that retreats northward. The timing and evolution of this midday through the afternoon round is the most uncertain part of this forecast package, but the potential is there for one or more clusters of thunderstorms containing heavy rain, lightning, and possibly severe winds in some areas. Kept PROB30 groups to try and time the best windows of these storms from west to east Saturday afternoon and evening, with some slower timing compared to the 18Z TAF package. Winds will turn light S to SE tonight before veering to SW and increasing to 5-10 knots Saturday morning. Winds may eventually veer more W to NW behind the thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and evening. Outlook...Non-VFR possible through Sunday in scattered showers and thunderstorms with a frontal boundary lingering in the area. VFR possible briefly on Monday ahead of a cold frontal passage Tuesday, when non-VFR is possible again. && .MARINE... Winds will continue to be out of the west at around 10 knots with waves less than 2 feet across the central and eastern basin, and lower in the western basin. Overnight tonight, winds will become light and variable before being predominately out of the south-southwest by mid-morning tomorrow at less than 10 knots. Waves of less than 2 feet are expected through Saturday. Winds will increase again between 10-15 knots out of the west come Sunday morning and waves building to around 2 feet. Winds and waves will begin to subside Sunday evening into Monday morning and will be southwesterly as a weak frontal boundary lifts north across the lake through Monday. A cold front will sweep across the region through the day Tuesday with winds increasing briefly to 10-15 knots out of the northwest and waves building to around 2 feet. Onshore winds of 10 knots or less are expected afterwards and through the rest of the week && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...13 NEAR TERM...13 SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM...13 AVIATION...Garuckas MARINE...23