542 FXUS61 KCLE 060824 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 424 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move through the Central Great Lakes today with a cold front settling south behind it late tonight through Monday. The front will stall south of the area on Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the north. The above mentioned front will waver north and south through the end of the week and result in an active weather pattern. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Above normal temperatures continue for one more day as we remain in the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. Most areas will see highs in the low 90s today as the upper ridge continues to shift east. While dewpoints in the east will mix out some, locations in the west and near Lake Erie will hold steady or creep up into the upper 60s to near 70s degrees and push heat indices into the upper 90s, extending as far east as Cleveland. In additions skies will tend to be mostly sunny until cloud cover and chances of precipitation arrive from the west later in the afternoon. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving through the Upper Midwest with a surface trough extending from northern Lake Huron to west of Chicago this morning. A capping inversion along with dry air in the mid-levels will limit thunderstorms potential until deeper moisture along a prefrontal trough moves into NW Ohio during the late afternoon and early evening. Depending on cloud cover, ML CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg are likely in NW Ohio. NW Ohio will also reside on the southern periphery of stronger mid- level winds over lower Michigan and can not rule out a storm or two with 50-60 mph wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted areas from the I-75 corridor east to about Port Clinton with a marginal risk of Severe Weather today. Activity is expected to dwindle overnight with the loss of heating and an overall weakening of the shortwave aloft. The front stalls out across NW Ohio until the next shortwave trough arrives and pushes the front through the local area on Monday. Showers will develop on Monday as both daytime heating and convergence along the surface boundary increase again. By midday expect to see good coverage of showers and thunderstorms towards the I-71 corridor which will move east through the afternoon. The airmass will be moist with dewpoints at or above 70 degrees and PW values that look to exceed 2 inches. Some training is also possible with storm motion aligned parallel to the front. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be a concern with thunderstorms on Monday afternoon. In addition, will need to monitor any stronger thunderstorms for damaging winds with wet microbursts. Localized pockets of 1-2" of rain are certainly possible. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The front and associated precipitation will push south of the area on Monday night with high pressure building in for Tuesday. Temperatures will be back to near normal values for highs with dewpoints at least settling back into the low to mid 60s. This will not entirely relieve the humidity but will feel noticeably cooler than the Holiday weekend. The forecast is dry through Tuesday night and lows in the low to mid 60s will be well received. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... An active weather pattern is setting up for the remainder of the long term forecast. The upper air pattern transitions from a ridge over the western United States and a broad trough over eastern Canada to a quasi-zonal flow aloft to end the week. Chances of showers and thunderstorms return to the local area on Wednesday as a shortwave moves through the Ohio Valley and moisture spreads back north into the forecast area. Timing and placement of precipitation is unclear but scattered thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon. Typical summer heat and humidity will allow for additional thunderstorms on Thursday but may be located more inland as the trough axis to the north pivots through the eastern Great Lakes. This is followed on Friday and Saturday with a series of shortwaves aloft. Any details will be hard to resolve at this time scale but will need pops through the end of the forecast. Temperatures through the long term will tend to be near normal values for mid July. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... Conditions are VFR across the airspace this morning with high cirrus filtering through the terminals and south to southwest flow across the region. Winds remain elevated this morning and surface temperature/dew point spreads remain significant where fog development this morning remains unlikely and have a VFR forecast through the morning and into the afternoon. During the afternoon, a cold front will approach from the west and the increased pressure gradient should allow for southwest winds to increase and some gusts over 20 kt will be possible across the board. Later on, some showers and storms should develop ahead of the front during the peak daytime heating. These should extend into Northwest Ohio in some capacity with TS and MVFR chances for KTOL and KFDY; however, there are coverage concerns. A stabilizing atmosphere later in the evening will limit how far east any rain or TS may get. There is a chance that some marginal MVFR TS could get to KCLE with convection becoming elevated over nearby Lake Erie. Other than that, have kept the TAFs dry and VFR. Clouds will overspread the area late in the TAF period with ceilings for most by 06z Monday. Outlook...Non-VFR likely with showers and thunderstorms on Monday. Additional non-VFR possible on Wednesday and Thursday with primarily afternoon and evening convection chances. && .MARINE... South to southwest flow remains over the lake and will increase to 10 to 15 kts this afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west. The front will cross the lake tonight into Monday and winds will shift to the west then northwest. There should be a push of 10 to 15 kt northwest winds during the daytime on Monday that will allow for waves to build to at least 2 ft and there could be some isolated 3 ft conditions for the central basin. With the front, there will be the potential for some showers and storms, but overall, the severe threat appears low. For Tuesday, the front will stall well south of the lake and high pressure will meander north of the basin, which should allow for flow to weaken and become variable. The front will advance north on Wednesday and winds should become offshore again. The front will then push back south for Thursday and flow will become north to northeast on the lake. Overall, there are no marine headline concerns at this time through Thursday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...10 NEAR TERM...10 SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM...10 AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...Sefcovic