548 FXUS61 KILN 131849 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 249 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Stalled frontal boundary and slow moving upper level energy will result in several days with episodic showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures trend near or just below normal this weekend, with a warming trend expected through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Coverage in showers beginning to increase this afternoon with the quasi-stationary front draped across central OH and a shortwave trough positioned across the Midwest. SPC mesoanalysis does show SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon and evening, so thunderstorm potential certainly exists. However, best coverage of thunder is with a complex of storms in central KY nudging up into the Tristate. With the increasing coverage of showers out ahead of this complex, the environment is becoming modified and may decrease any thunder potential for portions of our CWA. However, there have been a few isolated cells ahead of this complex that are producing frequent lightning. Severe potential remains very low given the lack of shear, poor lapse rates and marginal DCAPE values (~400-600 J/kg). Some storms however may produce locally gusty winds and perhaps small hail. Additional rounds of showers continue into the overnight hours, with slightly better thunder potential near/south of the OH River. As the showers push northeast, intensity and coverage is expected to wane. However, the proximity of the upper level trough and some resemblance of an upper low will keep some energy around to initiate these showers. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Similar synoptic setup is anticipated for Saturday with a nearby H5 trough and stalled frontal boundary across our CWA. An upper low tries to pinch off from the flow pattern, but sort of washes out, indicating that the forcing will generally be weak. Thus, CAMs are less impressive with coverage of showers and storms on Saturday, likely becoming more isolated in nature. Additionally, we are expected to have similar mesoscale parameters as we observed on Friday. This means that severe potential remains little to none, and flood potential should remain very isolated. Any flooding concerns will be limited to areas that get repeated rounds of storms, and/or if they live in flood-prone areas such as near creeks/rivers. Given the increased cloud coverage and episodic showers/storms Saturday, daytime highs will trend near or just below seasonal normals in the middle 70s to near 80. Continued chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms are forecast for Saturday night. Muggy conditions and mild overnight lows persist given the stagnant flow pattern. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... On Sunday, a very weak, lingering, upper level trough will be meandering east throughout the day. Thermodynamic profiles on Sunday show very poor lapse rates, but an unstable airmass. This tropical- like thermodynamic profile will allow for an increase in PoPs and clouds on Sunday. The pop-ups that do form on Sunday will be very limited in terms of severe weather, however with recent rain, and given the tropical like environment that will be setting up, a flooding risk could present itself with any cells that train. As the upper level trough fully moves off to the east, Pops and clouds will decrease into Sunday night into Monday morning. Highs on Sunday will be around 80 degrees for the area and low to mid 60s for the overnight low into Monday morning. For the work week, heat and humidity both ramp up. A tropical airmass will almost park itself over the Mid-Atlantic region allowing for a near continuous hose of moisture to stream northward from the Gulf. On average, this time of year, overnight lows are normally in the low 60s with daytime highs in the low 80s. Keeping that in mind, Monday expect temps to rebound into the low to mid 80s, with feel like temps in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows Monday night into Tuesday morning will be above average at or just below 70 degrees. Tuesday we will be around average for our day time highs in the low to mid 80s, but with that tropical airmass in place, feel like temps on Tuesday could creep up into the upper 80s and approaching 90 degrees around the Ohio River and in urban heat islands. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will see lows at or just above 70 degrees. As of right now, Wednesday looks to be the hottest day of the week, as we find ourselves in an open warm sector of a passing system in the northern Great Lakes region. We will see relative humidity values in the upper 60s to maybe low 70s and highs in the upper 80s (maybe approaching 90 along the Ohio river), creating a surface environment with a feel like temps in the low 90s and possibly mid 90s along the Ohio River into Northern Kentucky. We will continue to monitor this trend, as this is creeping toward Advisory criteria. Either way with temps this warm, heat exhaustion and heat stroke start to become a concern for higher risk persons like the elderly, infants, and those taking certain medications. As with any tropical air mass, pop up showers and storms are always a chance with a 50-60 percent chance of pop ups wednesday. With our very moist airmass, some slight steepening of lapse rates, and maybe some broad forcing from that system to our northwest, some storms that do form in this warm sector could have the potential for gusty winds, but we`re still several days out so specifics are scarce. The cold front associated with the parent system will move through the region sometime Wednesday into Thursday, though timing details are still vague. Some machine learning (CSU/CIPS) lights up over the Mid- Atlantic region during this time frame for severe, so we will be keeping an eye on this system as CAMs begin to resolve. ll in all, if you are outdoors this week make sure you are drinking plenty of water and taking frequent breaks, especially given this is our first heat wave of the season. We are also approaching the summer solstice so UV indicies will be on the high side so make sure to apply sunscreen and reapply consistently as burn times at the peak of the day could very well reach 15 minutes or less. Additionally, with weakly forced pop-up thunderstorms, its always a good idea to have a radar app! && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Scattered SHRA beginning to move in from the southwest this afternoon. A period of showers with embedded thunder is possible for all terminals this afternoon and evening. However, given that thunder coverage isn`t overly impressive thus far, just kept any TSRA mention in a TEMPO group. There is expected to be a lull in pcpn this evening, with a return of showers overnight. However, these showers are expected to weaken in coverage and intensity as they progress northeast, decreasing the potential impacts at KCMH/KLCK. Additionally, thunder will likely be more limited during the overnight, so only have a mention at KCVG/KLUK due to the earlier arrival. MVFR CIGs likely build in overnight. Reasonably high probability for CIGs <2000 ft AGL, with the potential for a brief window of IFR during the early morning hours. Kept out IFR mention for now until confidence increases. Additional rounds of showers expected to develop on Saturday, but coverage will be more isolated. Thus, don`t have any pcpn mention in the extended KCVG taf for now, but this may be added in later. OUTLOOK...Several rounds of storms will be possible Saturday through Tuesday, causing periods of MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings and visibilities. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clark NEAR TERM...Clark SHORT TERM...Clark LONG TERM...Hurd AVIATION...Clark