397
FXUS61 KILN 220731
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
331 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Issued a flood watch across the southeast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms continue today.

2) Below normal temperatures are expected this week. Next chance for
rain will arrive mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)

A progressive mid level shortwave in the zonal flow will track thru
the region today. Surface low is forecast to move east ahead of the
wave, with an associated warm front pushing into ILN/s southern
counties this morning. The airmass has moistened up with an axis of
PWATs of 1.6 to 1.8 inches over the southwest. Widespread rain across
the south will become more scattered in coverage by sunrise.
Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms (especially over the
southeast where low end moderate instability will develop) with
persist until the surface low and associated cold front push thru the
area later this afternoon.

Given the continued favorable wind shear, cannot rule out a strong
to severe storm across the far southeast until the front clears the
area late this afternoon. Strong to damaging winds will be the
primary threat across portions of Northeast Kentucky and South
Central Ohio. The most favored timing for strong to severe storms
is 1 PM to 7 PM.


Given the high PWAT airmass, the expected development of convection,
and collaboration - have issued a flood watch across ILN/s southeast
counties thru 7 PM.


KEY MESSAGE 2)

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are generally in
the mid 80s. For the majority of this upcoming week, daytime highs
are expected to remain below normal. A slight warming trend develops
from the middle through the end of the work week, brining highs back
into the 80s.

There is a chance for showers/storms Wednesday night into Thursday
as a shortwave tracks through the Midwest region.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface low pressure over IL to track east across the region today.
Widespread showers will become more scattered in coverage by
sunrise. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms (especially
over the eastern TAF sites where instability develops) with persist
until the surface low and associated cold front push thru the area
later this afternoon.

Expect ceilings to lower to MVFR across all terminals late tonight,
and then to IFR this morning. IFR ceilings to slowly improve to MVFR
but much of the day looks to hold onto these MVFR ceilings. Expect
slow improvement to VFR late in the day into the evening as the
surface low pushes off to the east.

A wind shift from southwest to the west/northwest to occur today as
low pressure moves to the east and a cold front pushes thru the TAF
sites.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible again on Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through this evening for OHZ079-081-082-088.
KY...Flood Watch through this evening for KYZ094>100.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR