059 FXUS61 KCLE 030124 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 924 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Ohio Valley will gradually build east towards the Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday. A slow moving cold front will approach from the west on Wednesday before sweeping east Thursday night into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure remains over the Ohio Valley region leading to quiet, dry, and gradually warming conditions. Biggest concern with the near term forecast continues to be the transport of Canadian wildfire smoke aloft into the region. Based on HRRR vertically integrated smoke, hazy conditions will persist through the near term with near- surface smoke concentration amounts on the rise Tuesday afternoon through the evening. Air quality may become reduced given the increase in near surface smoke on Tuesday. Overnight lows tonight settle in the low to mid 50s before broad southerly flow and WAA bring higher temperatures and increased moisture. Dew points rise into the mid 50s coupled with afternoon highs on Tuesday in the lower 80s east of I-71 and mid to upper 80s across Northwest Ohio. Warm overnight lows expected Tuesday night as they settle in the low 60s across eastern zones with upper 60s to near 70 degrees across western zones. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Broad upper low over Hudson Bay in Canada will be guiding a surface low pressure system through northern Ontario and northern Quebec with an attendant cold front through the Great Lakes. The issue here is the main energy being so far north and largely moving away from the CWA that the cold front will lose forward momentum as the steering flow becomes parallel to the boundary. The resultant set up is a several day event where the cold front is really going to have a difficult time sweeping through the CWA, making for a period of unsettled weather for our area. Definitely going to have transitioned into a summer time tropical type atmosphere with layer RH and PWATs in the 1.50-1.75 inch range beginning late Wednesday. So the concerns for periodic heavier precipitation come into play with training and sometimes even backbuilding type scenarios with a fairly constant feed of low level moisture into the area ahead of the boundary while it provides a strong point of convergence/forcing. There should still be a little bit of a diurnal component to the forcing and could see some lulls in there Wednesday night and Thursday night, so will be hoping for breaks in between rounds of thunderstorms to allow the hydrologic aspect on the ground catch a break. Also in the short term forecast period, a low level jet with 30-35kts 0-6km bulk shear does not allow the severe threat to be zero, but potential column water loading will work against it a bit. SPC keeps the area in marginal for severe on the front end of this event. Figure this will be a highly variable QPF event across the CWA through the end of the week. Prior to the cold front arriving, Wednesday figures to be the warmest day of the 7 day forecast, with mainly mid to upper 80s expected, and possibly 90F here and there. Convective activity and some frontal progression knocks temperatures down Thursday into the 70s and again for Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The last of the surface low pressure waves with this system struggling to clear the CWA tracks through Friday night, driven by a 500mb trough axis, with high pressure finally moving in for a drier weekend period. Remaining largely in the 70s for highs in the extended with another cold front knocking on the door for early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... VFR across the TAF sites this evening with VFR to persist through the TAF period. The main aviation concern will be smoke in the upper levels of the atmosphere that will present a high ceiling at times with smoke providing some amount of obscuration. Winds are generally out of the southwest this evening, 5 to 10 knots. Winds will favor a southerly direction overnight, around 5 knots, increasing to 10 to 12 knots by late Tuesday morning and afternoon with gusts up to 20 knots possible. Outlook...VFR expected into Wednesday. Non-VFR possible in periodic scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening through Friday night. && .MARINE... Offshore flow for today and tonight 5-15kts will increase late Tuesday through late Wednesday ahead of a cold front to 15-20kts, with immediate nearshore waters less than 1ft, but increasing rapidly away from shore to 1-3ft 5NM out. The slow moving cold front will come through, but winds will not shift to onshore, and should stay mainly southwesterly 10-15kts into early Thursday. Waves of low pressure move through Thursday through Friday with highly variable wind directions 10-15kts with 1-2ft waves until it turns northerly Saturday at around 10-15kts. Periodic thunderstorm activity should be expected from late Wednesday through Friday night. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...13 NEAR TERM...13 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...Kahn MARINE...26