540
FXUS61 KCLE 251750
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
150 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will waiver across the southern Great Lakes
and near the local area through Monday, before pushing south as
a cold front on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Unsettled mid-summer weather continues to end the work week
with warm, humid conditions to go along with occasional chances
for showers and thunderstorms. In this weakly-forced, weakly-
sheared environment confidence in the POP/QPF forecast is on
the lower side, with a Marginal Risk for both locally damaging
winds and excessive rainfall across parts of the area today.

A couple of very weak shortwaves/ripples in the mid-upper level
flow will work across the area through this evening. One is
moving into Northwest Ohio early this morning and will slowly
work east across the area through early-mid afternoon. A
slightly stronger shortwave will approach from the west late
this afternoon and cross the area this evening into tonight.
Another shortwave will begin approaching from the west late
tonight towards early Saturday. In general, shower and storm
potential will increase along and just ahead of each shortwave
with relative mins behind each shortwave. A weak cold front is
expected to push southeast off of Lake Erie into Northeast OH
and Northwest PA late this morning into this afternoon. This
front, along with any outflow boundaries from overnight or early
morning showers/storms, will help focus re-development this
afternoon into this evening, especially when favorably aligned
with weak synoptic lift from the shortwaves.

The long story short is that anyone along or south of the front
will have at least some potential for showers and storms today
and tonight. However, it will not be an all day rain by any
stretch. A few showers/storms are ongoing across interior
Northeast OH early this morning and should exit east through 7
AM. Showers/storms are ongoing from northern IL east-northeast
towards Lake Erie early this morning. Have higher POPs across
Northwest OH into this morning given the ongoing activity. This
activity may weaken while pushing east across the area this
morning, before perking up late morning or early afternoon
across far eastern OH and interior northwestern PA before
exiting. Have a window of relatively lower POPs behind this
activity in subsidence behind the shortwave. Lift returns as
the next shortwave approaches from the west late today into this
evening. POPs again ramp up along and southwest of the frontal
boundary in response, bringing a window of higher POPs back
into most of Northwest and North Central OH, east-southeast
towards the Canton area into the evening hours. Lowered POPs
across Northeast OH and Northwest PA late this afternoon into
this evening as the front should be south of that area.

Am looking for a relative lull in activity after sunset this
evening into early tonight as we lose heating and briefly lose
some synoptic support. Low-level warm air advection ramps up
tonight ahead of the next shortwave as the front starts lifting
back north, so have POPs increasing again from the west-
southwest overnight tonight towards early Saturday. Confidence
is relatively low given significant model spread in the
placement of convection tonight towards early Saturday, so
mainly stuck with "chance POPs" (30-50%) for later tonight.

Given a front pushing into the area along with more clouds/rain,
temperatures will be several degrees cooler than Thursday
locally. Highs will generally be in the mid 80s, with some
upper 80s possible farther south. With dew points still near or
a bit higher than 70, peak heat index values will reach the low
to mid 90s (a bit cooler in far Northeast OH/Northwest PA). Lows
tonight will range from the upper 60s to low 70s.

Locations south of the front that receive some sunshine today
should build 1000-1500 J/KG (perhaps locally up to 2000 J/KG per
some hi-res models) of MLCAPE this afternoon into this evening,
along with modest to moderate DCAPE of 700-1000 J/KG. Low-level
lapse rates should be fairly steep, though with warm mid-levels
and poor mid-level lapse rates. Shear will be weak, with just
enough upper-level flow for 20-25kt of effective deep-layer
shear. This environment may support a few stronger pulse cells
or loosely organized clusters capable of isolated wind damage,
reflected by the SPC Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
weather across most of the area for this afternoon and evening.
The greatest confidence in any isolated severe threat is south
and west of a Toledo-Canton line. Precipitable water values in
the range of 1.70-2.00", along with flow aloft somewhat
paralleling the sagging front, will support impressive rain
rates with convection and perhaps a bit of transient training.
Locally heavy rainfall (2-3"+) is possible, though coverage
should be low and most of the area isn`t currently saturated.
Will need to watch for isolated flash flooding, though believe
the WPC Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4)
covers the rather isolated/low-confidence potential well. Any
severe threat will wane tonight, though locally heavy rainfall
could remain possible with any lingering storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Active weather continues into the weekend, though with some
relative improvement on Sunday, at least across our northern
counties. The potential for isolated severe weather and heavy
rain will remain with storms on the warm side of a front that
will lift north of the area on Saturday and then return south as
a cold front that pushes through on Sunday.

Saturday may start somewhat unsettled with the front still
lifting across far Northeast OH and Northwest PA in the morning.
A relative dry break (with warm and humid conditions) is likely
later Saturday morning into the afternoon. There`s decent
agreement in a shortwave pushing in from the west Saturday
afternoon and evening. This coincides well with peak heating,
and expect scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop just
to our west/northwest and spread east-southeast into the area
Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered convection
may also develop overhead Saturday afternoon along any weak
boundaries (such as a lake breeze or old outflow boundaries from
any morning convection). Have likely to categorical (60-80%)
POPs for the entire area at some point Saturday afternoon or
evening. Utilized 1-hour POP grids through early Saturday
evening to attempt to show some timing resolution. There will be
some limitations to an organized severe weather threat on
Saturday (such as continued very weak mid-level lapse
rates)...however, flow aloft will be somewhat stronger, with
25-35kt of deep-layer shear expected. Moderate to strong
instability (1500-2500 J/KG of MLCAPE) should also develop,
assuming some heating. Conditions appear conducive to organized
convection with primarily a wind damage potential Saturday
afternoon and evening, with locally heavy rainfall remaining
possible with PWATs still nearing 2.00" across the area. SPC and
WPC Marginal Risks cover parts of the area for both severe
weather and excessive rainfall. Do think there`s some potential
for the severe outlook to trend upwards a bit more.

Occasional shower and storm chances continue Saturday night into
Sunday ahead of the front that will finally push across the area
on Sunday. A trend to drier weather is likely from the north on
Sunday. Maintain a shower/storm mention all areas on Sunday,
though could see POPs trending towards at least across northern
counties depending on the speed of the front. An isolated severe
weather/heavy rain risk may again play out Sunday afternoon
ahead of the front, though the overall setup seems more
questionable than Saturday and may focus to our south anyways.

Highs will generally climb into the mid to upper 80s on Saturday
assuming a window of heating, with dew points near or better
than 70 pushing peak heat index values into the low to mid 90s.
There will be little airmass change on Sunday despite the front
moving through, leading to another warm and humid day but with
values remaining well shy of any heat headline criteria.
Overnight lows both Saturday and Sunday nights will generally
range from the upper 60s to lower 70s, with mid 70s near
downtown Cleveland and up against the Lake Erie shoreline.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
We get one more push of a very warm air and unpleasant humidity
on Monday as this weekend`s front lifts back northeast. A
stronger cold front crosses Tuesday into Wednesday as troughing
digs into the Northeast and sets up northwest flow across the
region. High pressure attempts to build in Wednesday and
Thursday as the front settles towards the Ohio Valley, though
there is some spread in terms of how effectively that high
builds in and how far south the front can push. Expect hot/humid
conditions early in the week to give way to much more pleasant,
even cooler than normal conditions by Wednesday and Thursday.
Heat headlines may be needed for Monday. Shower and storm
chances are in the forecast Monday into Monday night, though
coverage may not be high as upper ridge to our southwest flexes,
pushing better jet support just to our northeast. Some POPs
linger into Tuesday, mainly in our southern zones. The forecast
reads as dry for Wednesday and Thursday, though will need to
watch how far the front ends up pushing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Showers and thunderstorms have wained down for the time being
and terminals have become VFR and will continue so for the
first part of the TAF period. KFDY could see thunderstorms this
evening between 21-24Z and winds gusting up to 20 knots and
MVFR ceilings. The next round of unsettled weather will be
tonight after 01Z as showers will move in across the northern
portions of Ohio and dissipating before reaching PA. Ceilings
will drop to MVFR during this time. For all terminals besides
KCLE, there is the potential for BR tomorrow morning as winds
will be fairly light and with the precipitation received today
will allow for a moist lower levels dropping visibility down to
MVFR. The BR should clear out by the morning and terminals
should return to VFR conditions. Another round of thunderstorms
are expected tomorrow mid-day through the afternoon, though
timing in uncertain so kept a PROB30 group at the end of the
period. The storms will be moving from west to east, so those
terminals east of KCLE-KMFD line will see the potential after
this TAF period.

Winds are less than 10 knots, predominately out of the west but
varying a little northwesterly to southwesterly at times. Can
expect light winds for the majority of the period, and becoming
variable overnight tonight. By tomorrow, winds will be out of
the south-southwest at 5-10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible each day through the weekend in
scattered showers and thunderstorms with a frontal boundary
lingering in the area. VFR possible briefly on Monday ahead of
a cold front passage Tuesday where non-VFR is possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will continue to be out of the west at around 10 knots
with waves less than 2 feet across the central and eastern
basin, and lower in the western basin. Overnight tonight, winds
will become light and variable before being predominately out of
the south-southwest by mid-morning tomorrow at less than 10
knots. Waves of less than 2 feet are expected through Saturday.
Winds will increase again between 10-15 knots out of the west
come Sunday morning and waves building to around 2 feet. Winds
and waves will begin to subside Sunday evening into Monday
morning and will be southwesterly as a weak frontal boundary
lifts north across the lake through Monday. A cold front will
sweep across the region through the day Tuesday with winds
increasing briefly to 10-15 knots out of the northwest and waves
building to around 2 feet. Onshore winds of 10 knots or less
are expected afterwards and through the rest of the week

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23