859 FXUS61 KCLE 080538 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 138 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift north towards the area tonight into early Sunday as weak low pressure exits the Mid-Missisippi Valley. The low will move east over the Ohio Valley and lift the warm front across the area during the day Sunday before exiting to the east by Sunday evening. A cold front will cross the region Monday with a trough lingering over the area through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 920 pm update... There are no forecast adjustments for this late evening update. 700 pm update... With this early evening update, there were no adjustments needed to the ongoing forecast through Sunday morning. Previous discussion... High pressure will maintain influence over the region through early this evening before a warm front accompanied by a weak surface low lifts north/northeast from the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys late tonight through Sunday. Showers will begin to lift northeast into the region after 2 AM/6Z tonight before overspreading most of the area by early to mid afternoon. There`s still some uncertainty in the coverage and northward extent of showers, however the majority of high res guidance places the highest rain chances across southern zones Sunday morning and east of I-71 Sunday afternoon. Diurnal destabilization may result in a few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening, however the severe weather risk is slim. Precipitable water values will likely rise to values near the 75th percentile (1-1.25 inches) Sunday and repeated rounds of rain over locations that are already saturated from previous days of rain may result in some minor flooding primarily along and south of U.S. Route 30. QPF values will generally range between a quarter of an inch to half an inch east of the I-75 corridor with locally higher amounts up to an inch possible where moderate rainfall rates persist. The will quickly exit to the east by Sunday evening and most locations will see a period of dry weather (or at least relatively low rain chances) Sunday night before an upper trough and surface cold front begin to move into the area towards the end of the period. Rain chances will begin to increase from the west after midnight Sunday night with precip possibly reaching as far east as the I-75 corridor by the end of the near term period. Low temperatures will by in the mid 50s to lower 60s tonight with highs rising into the low to mid 70s on Sunday. Anticipate lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s Sunday night. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... An upper level low dives south out of Canada on Monday into the Upper Midwest. A ribbon of deep moisture ahead of the advancing upper low will be the focus for showers and scattered thunderstorms moving east across the area on Monday. There are differences among the models with respect to the timing and how much instability may be able to develop across primarily northeast Ohio during the afternoon before storms arrive. The NAM indicates ML CAPE values may exceed 1000 J/kg while the GFS has limited instability. Bulk shear values of 40-50 knots will be sufficient to support organized convection if it can materialize and the Storm Prediction Center is highlighting a marginal risk of severe weather along with a marginal risk of excessive rainfall with storm motion parallel to the flow aloft. The actual cold front wraps in from the west on Monday night but models so showers generally weakening as they approach the area Monday night. A few showers could cross Lake Erie but will only have a low pop for this potential. The upper trough will cross the area on Tuesday with a fairly substantial mid-level dry-slot overhead on Tuesday. An inversion is likely above 10K feet and not expecting more than an isolated shower or two , mainly east of I-71 on Tuesday. Temperatures will tend to be slightly below normal in the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper trough exits to the east on Wednesday with high pressure building north into the Ohio Valley. Dry conditions are expected on Wednesday and likely through Thursday as broad ridging builds in aloft. Temperatures climb back into the 80s during the mid-week period. By the end of next week we will be watching energy and moisture moving out of the southern Plains with a split flow pattern aloft. Chances of showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast for Friday and Saturday but could see this potentially being delayed until the weekend based on the evolution of the Plains upper trough. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... An area of rain across Indiana and southern Ohio is expected to move northeastward across the area this morning before becoming more scattered by this afternoon. Should largely be VFR this morning outside a few heavier showers producing brief visibility in the 3-5 SM range. Periods of MVFR ceilings before clouds scatter out this evening into tonight. There are some indications from model guidance that clouds could hang on late tonight, and if they do, then IFR ceilings may be possible, most likely at KYNG. Light winds of 7 knots or less expected, generally out of the east and southeast, becoming south and southwest late tonight. Outlook...Non-VFR is possible with a line of showers and thunderstorms that is expected to move east across the area on Monday. Non-VFR could linger into Monday night with ceilings. && .MARINE... High pressure over the Central Great Lakes will depart to New England on Sunday. Weak low pressure will move through the Ohio Valley on Sunday with northeasterly winds increasing to 10-15 knots tonight then becoming more easterly on Sunday. This will lead to some choppiness and waves of 1 to 3 feet for portions of the nearshore waters. By Monday winds will develop out of the southwest ahead of an upper level low moving southeast out of Canada. Southwest winds of 10-15 knots on will veer to westerly with the passage of a cold front Monday night and increase to 15-20 knots on Tuesday with 2 to 4 feet waves. High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday with winds decreasing below 10 knots or less. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...15 NEAR TERM...77/15 SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM...10 AVIATION...Saunders MARINE...10