782 FXUS61 KILN 140146 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 946 PM EDT Sun Apr 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift across the area tonight followed by a cold front on Monday afternoon. A secondary trough of low pressure will move through on Tuesday with high pressure building in midweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... A strengtening 850 mb low level jet will shift east into the mid Ohio Valley through the early morning hours. Along the nose of this jet, some weak isentopic lift will develop and this will lead to a chance for some light rains showers. The best chance for this appears to be across about the northeast half of our area where we will include some lower end pops. Outside of this area, it will still be tough to rule out a few sprinkles. Lows will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will move across the area Monday afternoon. Main upper level forcing will be well north of the area but a weak short wave will move through around the time of frontal passage. Low level moisture will increase ahead of the front but with veered winds in the warm sector, convergence will be limited. Scattered showers and storms will develop, most likely east and south of I-71 and could be delayed enough that storms do not really get going until starting to exit the southeast counties of the forecast area. If a robust updraft gets going, it will be in a well sheared environment so there will be the potential for a strong to severe storm. The front will clear the area by evening and clouds will decrease until later in the night when another short wave approaches from the northwest. Winds will be persistent through the night. Temperatures will rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s with readings dropping back into the 40s Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Positively tilted H5 trough will sweep through the region on Tuesday. Temperatures may trend cooler on Tuesday as a result of the cyclonic flow and associated CAA. The cyclonic flow will usher in moisture from the Great Lakes and keep skies mostly cloudy throughout the day. Scattered showers may also develop during the daytime hours, but intensity/coverage will be fairly light. Coldest temperatures of the period will be on Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Decreasing clouds are expected Tuesday night from the west, but surface winds will remain around 5-10 mph overnight throughout most the CWA, which might be just enough to inhibit frost development. Wednesday night, surface winds die down and skies trend mostly clear with the exception of cirrus building in, so frost potential will be greater that night. H5 trough will be eventually be replaced with upper level ridging, promoting a warming trend through the end of the work week. Highs back into the 60s are expected Thursday, climbing into the middle 70s by Friday. Next best chance for rain will be Friday night into Saturday as the H5 ridge dampens. An elongated cold front will stretch across portions of the northeastern CONUS down through the Midwest, which will help initiate showers and perhaps some thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mid level clouds will continue across the area tonight as a warm front lifts north into the Ohio Valley. This will result in a few light rain showers or sprinkles at times tonight. Some models are hinting at the development of some MVFR clouds through the morning hours ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Cigs will lift back into VFR as we destabilize through late morning and into the afternoon. Meanwhile, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front through mid afternoon, with the best chance for pcpn mainly along and southeast of I-71, and will cover this with a few hour prob30 group at all of the TAF sites except KDAY. Pcpn chances will taper off through late afternoon as the front moves through. Some LLWS will also be possible tonight as a low level jet overspreads the region. Ahead of the front, surface winds will become southwest through the day on Monday with gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Clark AVIATION...JGL