427 FXUS61 KCLE 082356 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 756 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front will gradually lift north on Wednesday as low pressure moves northeast through the Great Lakes, extending a cold front through the area on Thursday. This cold front will stall and linger near the Lower Great Lakes into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Main concern for the near term period will be the potential for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening, particularly across Northwest Ohio where a couple of stronger storms are possible. For the rest of today, weak high pressure is resulting in mostly sunny and seasonable temperatures. No precipitation is expected through this evening, though some pockets of dense fog are possible across far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania overnight. Otherwise, a weak mid- level shortwave is currently located across southern IA/northern MO. This feature will gradually move east towards the Lower Great Lakes into Wednesday, providing mesoscale enhancement, in addition to weak upper- level forcing from a passing trough. The latest HREF indicates mostly scattered coverage of showers and storms across portions of Southeast MI and Northwest OH Wednesday afternoon and evening. The environment is suggestive of modest downburst potential across Northwest Ohio, with values behind the DCAPE gradient around 800 to 900 J/kg and low-level lapse rates between 7 to 8 C/km. Bulk shear values around 20 to 25 knots could also support a few organized thunderstorm clusters. This potential is reflected in the most recent SPC SWODY2 marginal risk. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Periods of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will remain possible for the short term period, with the highest coverage found along a cold front across the southeast portion of the area on Thursday. Shower and storm chances appear less likely, or at least more isolated, on Friday in the wake of the cold front and as weak high pressure attempts to build south through the Great Lakes. Mainly seasonable to slightly above- average temperatures are expected for Thursday and Friday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Heat indices may begin to approach the lower 90s by Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Active weather appears to continue for the weekend and perhaps even into early next week as a stronger upper-level trough moves east through the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday into Sunday, extending a cold front across the area. The latest guidance suggests the potential for perhaps some organized convection on Saturday with the trough passage, although uncertainty remains on the timing of the cold front. Depending on the timing of the cold front, Sunday could either feature additional chances for showers and storms, particularly across the southeast portion of the area, or favor dry weather as high pressure attempts to build behind the front. However, the brief respite in the active pattern does not appear to remain as modest westerly flow returns across the Great Lakes region, on the northern periphery of a building ridge to the south. The hottest day of the long term period is expected to be Saturday with heat indices approaching the mid to upper 90s prior to any shower and storm development later in the day. Slightly above-average temperatures are then expected to persist for Sunday and beyond with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Heat indices may approach the lower 90s each afternoon. && .AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... With a front stalled over the Ohio River Valley and high pressure meandering to the north, the airspace is VFR this evening with just some minor cumulus clouds. Flow is mainly light and northerly to start, but winds will shift around to the south overnight for all terminals. The front will lift back north on Wednesday and mid- and high-level clouds will start streaming in overnight into Wednesday. With the front back over the area on Wednesday afternoon and evening and a shortwave trough moving through the region aloft, a round of showers and storms will develop and try to enter the airspace. Have some confidence that storms will get into the KTOL area late in the TAF period and have introduced a TEMPO for some MVFR and TS there. Otherwise, lower confidence on TS elsewhere and have some PROB30 groups for KFDY, KMFD, and KCLE where there should be some thunderstorms about but unsure on possible terminal impacts. Outlook...Non-VFR will be possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through Saturday with the best chance during the afternoon each day. && .MARINE... Overall, good marine conditions are anticipated over the next several days. Winds will generally be southerly at around 10 knots or less through Wednesday before briefly shifting to the northwest behind a cold front Thursday. A period of onshore flow due to a lake breeze is likely on Wednesday afternoon. Variable and relatively light winds in addition to periods of onshore flow due to daily lake breezes are favored Thursday afternoon through Friday with winds becoming more south/southwesterly and increasing to around 10 knots on Saturday. Periodic showers and thunderstorms are possible on the lake Wednesday through the weekend, best chance during the afternoon and early evening each day. Winds and waves could be higher in thunderstorms. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kahn NEAR TERM...Kahn SHORT TERM...Kahn LONG TERM...Kahn AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...15