449 FXUS61 KCLE 120006 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 806 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front drops southward late tonight through Thursday, but dry. This front will stall just south of Lake Erie on Friday and linger into Sunday with low pressure rippling through. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Skies remain mostly clear with just some thin cirrus tonight. A west to east oriented front is located across central lower Michigan and will begin to push south of Lake Erie on Thursday morning. Previous discussion...From a sensible weather standpoint, not too much going on in the near term portion of the forecast. A cold front will slowly sink southward across Lake Erie tonight and through the CWA towards morning in response to high pressure building over Lake Huron and southern Ontario. This will be a dry cold front, but it will serve as a catalyst for a wind direction change through the day Thursday. An onshore/northeast wind will have a direct effect on the high temperature forecast for the lakeshore zones as lake surface water temperatures are still largely in the 60s resulting in max values about 5-10 degrees cooler. Further inland, as there will not be much of an airmass change in the wake of the cold front, expect 80s again, perhaps a couple degrees off the pace from today. Weak low pressure and an upper level wave enter the picture for late Thursday night for POPs to come in for the short term period beginning early Friday. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The cold front will be south of the lakeshore on Friday, remaining nearly stationary somewhere across central Ohio. As moisture increases across the area on Friday, an area of upper level support will advect north, providing support for widespread rain showers to develop with a non-zero potential for thunder. Extent of thunder remains a bit uncertain and will be highly dependent on the positioning of the aforementioned boundary. There is high confidence that these showers/storms will be heavy rain producers as warm cloud layers deepen and modeled sounding suggest a long, skinny CAPE profile. PWAT values are simultaneously expected to increase to 1.75- 2 inches across the area with a weak, although present, LLJ. These rain showers will continue through Saturday night as a shortwave trough aloft pushes east across the Ohio River Valley. Although placement of the stalled boundary remains a bit uncertain, confidence is increasing for widespread showers and thunderstorms and the potential for flooding concerns. The high PWAT values both days approach the max for climatological values. A broad WPC Marginal ERO remains in place for Friday through Saturday night. There should be enough motion in the atmosphere to keep the showers moving, however some guidance does show the potential for training to develop. Generally, flood concerns are currently limited to localized flooding, including along local rivers and streams and in areas with poor drainage. In areas where heavy rain develops and trains, an increased risk of flash flooding will occur. Highs on Friday will climb into the upper 70s to low 80s before cooling on the northern side of the stationary boundary to be in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows will remain steady in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Unfortunately, the wet pattern is looking more likely to continue into at least early next week as a predominately zonal flow aloft allows for the stationary boundary to continue to linger somewhere near the Ohio River Valley. Models continue to diverge quite a bit about where to boundary lingers, but are consistent with it gradually sagging south into early next week. For now, opted to maintain 20-50% PoPs through Tuesday, but will fine tune the potential as models come into better agreement. By mid-week next week, there is the potential for another shortwave to push east so added PoPs for Wednesday as well, but capped them at slight chance. Highs through the long term period should gradually warm from in the 70s on Sunday to in the 80s by midweek. Overnight lows should remain fairly consistent, dropping into the 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Wind gusts should drop off within the hour at all TAF sites with a southwest wind of 10 knots or less overnight. A west to east oriented front is located across central lower Michigan and will begin to push south of Lake Erie on Thursday morning, reaching TOL/CLE/ERI around 11-12Z with a wind shift to the north or northeast at 7-10 knots. Elsewhere winds will shift to more westerly ahead of the front and eventually northeast behind it. The front will continue to push south through the day reaching YNG around 15Z, then slowing and eventually reaching CAK/MFD/FDY towards 21-22Z. The front will lack moisture with sct-bkn clouds near 5K possible at ERI between 15-18Z but otherwise most areas will just see few-sct cloud near 5K feet with sct clouds at 10-15K. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday, becoming more likely on Saturday in widespread showers and thunderstorms, lingering through Sunday. && .MARINE... Southwest winds of 10-15 knots this afternoon will persist into the early overnight hours as high pressure gradually shifts off the east coast. A cold front will slowly sag south tonight into Thursday, settling along the southern lakeshore by Thursday afternoon. Winds behind the boundary will become north-northeast at 10-15 knots. This boundary will continue to sag south into Friday and become nearly stationary across the Ohio River Valley through the weekend. During this entire time, winds will persist from the north-northeast generally between 5-15 knots. Exact positioning of the front remains a bit uncertain, so any further shift north may briefly change the winds to be from the south-southwest. On Tuesday into Wednesday, models suggest this boundary finally lifting north as a warm front, allowing for winds to consistently gain a more southerly component by midweek. At this time, not expecting any marine headlines through the period, but given the lingering front, will have to monitor the gradients across the lake for any enhancement and the potential need for headlines. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...10 MARINE...04