053
FXUS61 KCLE 022010
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
410 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move through the area this evening before a
cold front approaches from the west tonight into Thursday. This
front will settle near the Ohio River for Thursday into Friday
before a low pressure system forms and lifts this feature north
as a warm front Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The first round of showers and thunderstorms has exited stage
right this afternoon after a round of rain spanning 0.50-1.50",
some nuisance flooding, and some small and isolated large hail.
The main warm front to help trigger these storms is into central
Ohio and will continue to extend north across the forecast area
this evening. The advancement of this warm front will be key to
the severe weather threat across the area tonight. Temperatures
in Mount Vernon have crossed the 70 degree mark and Marion has
exceeded 60 degrees, but the gradient is tight with Findlay
still below 50 degrees and closer to the 40s near Lake Erie. The
front should advance to near Lake Erie by 8-9 PM and the western
two-thirds of the forecast area should reach at least 60 degrees
and some instability should build with 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE,
where 70s could still be achieved. This will be plenty of
instability to work with, as a strongly sheared air mass
continues to develop across the Ohio Valley with a 70 kt low
level jet at 850 mb entering tonight and mean 0-3 SRH values
exceeding 400 m2/s2. A line of convective development continues
to blossom across Illinois and Missouri and it will continue to
expand north and east with time this afternoon. This will
organize and be the main show that will enter a favorable
atmosphere for severe weather. Therefore, the Enhanced Risk
remains for the western forecast area with the Slight Risk
expanding to the east from there. All severe weather hazards
remain on the table with a few tornadoes embedded within a line
of convection, damaging wind gusts, including some significant
severe over 65 kts, and large hail. The timing will be into
Northwest Ohio around 8 PM and extending east through the night
around I-71 by Midnight and into the overnight. The trend in the
forecast is that these storms are more likely to move through
faster than previously anticipated and the flash flood threat
may be more conditional and slightly lessened. However, will
keep the flood watch with the overall wet pattern through the
weekend and will monitor for hydrological hazards tonight.

The cold front will be into the area Thursday morning and will
move southeast. The bulk of the storms will be southeast of the
area during the daytime hours and the Day 2 Severe Risk has been
removed from the area with the forecast trending dry. Highs in
the 60s may be achieved early in the day. The front will be to
the south of the forecast area on Thursday night but will be a
focus area for new rain development that may push north through
the night. Some efficient rainfall should enter the southern
forecast area and there could be some conditional flooding for
Central Ohio, as highlighted by a Day 2 Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday will be a lull to the active weather for most of Northern
Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania as the boundary stalls out to the
south in Southern Ohio. There maybe some scattered precipitation
throughout the day in Central Ohio, through most will stay dry. A
surface low and boundary will start to move northeastward from the
lower Mississippi Valley as a strong LLJ moves into the region. This
will bring back ample moisture from the south back into Northern
Ohio. Heavy rainfall will return to the region with the strong
moisture advection for starting late Friday night and early Saturday
morning. In turn, most of the CWA will continue to be in a MRGL risk
for excessive rainfall on Friday and a SLGT risk on Saturday. There
will be a flash flood and river flooding threat across much of the
region, with the highest probability across areas west of Interstate
71. Total rainfall forecast for Friday through Saturday night will
be from 2-4" across the region. There does lie a small, isolated
risk for severe weather across the far southwestern counties of the
CWA which warranted a MRGL risk from SPC, though it will be largely
overshadowed by the heavy rain threat. The best opportunity for any
sort of severe weather will be during the afternoon timeframe on
Saturday as temperatures start to climb with the southerly flow. An
approaching cold front from the northwest will start to push
everything out to the east late Saturday night.

Temperatures on Friday will fall a bit from earlier in the week as
we will be on the northern side of the boundary with highs in the
50s across the region. On Saturday, temperatures will rebound with
the southerly flow and high will reach into the mid to upper 60s.
Parts of Northwest Ohio may not hit the 60s as the approaching cold
front could keep the high temperatures down some.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The aforementioned cold front from the short term will be entering
the region from the northwest driven by a much larger upper level
trough that will be digging down into the Great Lakes region Sunday
night into Monday. A couple weaker low pressure systems and
associated cold fronts will move through the region with the upper
level trough through the beginning of the week. The initial cold
front on Sunday will drive out most of the precipitation in the
region throughout the day. There may be some lingering showers on
the back end in Eastern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania. A
secondary, weak low pressure system will move into the region on
Monday with a more widespread, though low probability, chance for
precipitation across the region. The northerly flow behind the
system and with a high pressure building to the west, will bring
down much colder air leading to the opportunity for a rain/snow mix
during the morning and overnight hours Monday and Tuesday. Rain/snow
showers will persist in the snowbelt through Tuesday night as the
high builds eastward across the region. Temperatures will be below
average to start next week with the the cold air advection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Showers and storms are moving through Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania this afternoon ahead of a warm front.
This complex does not have extravagantly low ceilings but
briefly heavy rainfall has allowed for a mix of MVFR to IFR
visibility that will persist over the next couple of hours
before the current TS threat ends. East winds off Lake Erie has
allowed for some IFR stratus to develop and persist into KTOL
and have the TAF starting with IFR, but any veering of the winds
should allow for these clouds to exit this terminal. VFR
ceilings around 5 kft will exist through the rest of the
afternoon into the early evening with southeast to south winds
strengthening in the warm sector of a warm front. Gusts to 30 kt
are possible in this warm sector with 40 kt in NW PA with
downsloping into KERI. Areas of showers and storms with severe
potential will develop ahead of a cold front in Indiana this
evening and move east through the airspace. These storms will
bring additional MVFR and VFR conditions with convective wind
gusts of 40 kts or greater. Have timed in a broader window of
VCTS and rain with polished windows for higher impact IFR and
stronger winds with TS in TEMPO groups, as timing confidence
continues to increase. The cold front will move through the area
late in the TAF period with rain coverage decreasing and winds
veering while remaining with elevated gusts. MVFR ceilings
should still remain after the bulk of the thunderstorms for the
first part of Thursday, but conditions will try to improve to
VFR toward the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings may continue across the region
Thursday night into Friday with some non-VFR visibility possible
in showers and storms south. Non-VFR more likely areawide in
showers and thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday. Non-VFR
ceilings are expected to continue into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is still active for the entirety of the
nearshore zones through Thursday morning when the western half will
fall off and Thursday night for the eastern half. Winds will be
predominantly out of the south this evening at 15 to 25 before
increasing to 20 to 30 knots ahead of an approaching cold front.
Behind the cold front, winds will shift out of the west and subside
to 10 to 15 knots throughout the day on Thursday. Winds will
continue to decrease into the overnight hours and Friday morning and
veer to out of the north at 5 to 10 knots. Winds will stay light
through Friday before increasing Saturday morning to 10 to 15 knots.
There will be another shift in the winds Sunday morning with a
passing cold front bringing the winds out of the north at 10 to 15
knots which will continue through Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Sunday morning
     for OHZ003-006>011-017>021-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for PAZ001-002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ142>145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...23