831
FXUS61 KCLE 150243
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
943 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure finally exits late Friday into Friday night. High
pressure returns late Friday night into the early part of the
weekend. Weak cold front Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
9:30 PM Update...

The forecast remains on track overnight with no changes. The
steadier showers will gradually end by 06Z in NE Ohio and NW PA
leaving behind widely scattered showers but widespread drizzle
and mist will continue overnight as abundant low-level moisture
remains. This will limit the fall in temperatures, with mainly
mid to upper 40s expected for lows.

6:30 PM Update...

Increased PoPs across the northern tier of counties through
about 06Z since regional radar shows showers filling back in as
the axis of the closed low passes over southern Ontario, driving
an area of enhanced PVA. Besides the showers, drizzle will be
widespread through at least the first half of tonight before
drier air gradually works in late.

Original Discussion...

The track of the upper level closed low to the east southeast will
generate a new area of low pressure near the Carolina coast, leaving
the low pressure in northern Ohio to gradually fill and become an
inverted surface trough. With the bulk of the forcing headed out of
the region, POPs will be on the wane, however the combination of low
level cold air advection, onshore low level flow, and the
aforementioned trough, rain chances will continue for portions of
the central/eastern CWA through Friday. By this time, upper level
pattern favors ridging moving into the southern Great Lakes, but
this subsidence aloft will create a low level inversion trapping the
moisture in the column beneath it. Have extended the overcast
conditions through much of the near term forecast period as a
result. Temperatures on the lower side of guidance as well given the
lack of insolation, but should still be a few degrees warmer than
today. POPs generally gone by 12Z Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Mid to upper level ridging and surface high pressure builds over
much of the eastern CONUS on Saturday. Anticipating for lingering
low level moisture to keep some cloud cover in place for much of the
forecast area Saturday morning and afternoon before dissipating
Saturday evening. A warm front will lift across the area Saturday
night into Sunday which will increase cloud cover from west to east.
Aloft, an upper level trough will dig southward by the end of the
short term period increasing precipitation chances from north to
south late Sunday.

Highs on Saturday remain in the mid 50s before increasing behind the
warm front to near 60 degrees by Sunday. Overnight lows Saturday
night settle in the lower 40s west of I-71 with low to mid 30s
across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Warmer overnight
lows Sunday night as they settle in the mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
We`ll remain dry for most of Monday as the aforementioned upper
trough exits south and east. By Tuesday, shower chances increase as
a warm front lifts across the region. There remains some model
spread by the middle of next week, but the general consensus shows
an upper level low ejecting out of the Southern Plains before
gradually working its way towards the Ohio Valley. For now, have
mainly 40-60% PoPs in the forecast Tuesday afternoon onward.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Showers are filling back in this evening, especially over the
northern tier of counties as the upper level closed low passes
across southern Ontario Province. Extended the duration of
prevailing showers at KTOL, KCLE, KCAK, KYNG, and KERI through
06Z tonight before the showers finally begin to end. However,
even outside of the pronounced showers, drizzle/mist and low
clouds will be widespread this evening and overnight. This will
maintain mainly IFR to LIFR conditions much of the night. Drier
air gradually working east Friday morning will gradually improve
conditions to MVFR at KTOL and KFDY, but IFR cigs will continue
through the day farther east despite the drizzle and mist
ending. Typical November cloud cover lingering well behind a
system.

S to SE winds will continue to quickly diminish this evening,
turning WNW to NW at 5-10 knots tonight and Friday.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected in low ceilings Friday night. Non-
VFR possible in fog Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds 10-20 knots will gradually decrease below 15 knots
through the evening as a weak low pressure system works its way
across the lake. Winds turn northwesterly behind the system by
Friday morning as an area of high pressure builds east over the
Great Lakes region. Winds 10-15 knots will favor a northerly
component leading to wave heights to build to 2-3 feet across the
central and eastern basins Friday into Saturday.

High pressure builds to the east Saturday night into Sunday a low
pressure system across the Upper Midwest lifts a warm front eastward
across Lake Erie. Increasing southwesterly winds 15-25 knots as the
front lifts across the area may necessitate a small craft advisory
Sunday evening into early Monday morning. The low pressure system
will drag a cold front across the lake Sunday night into Monday
which will turn winds northwesterly while decreasing below 15 knots
by Monday morning.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/26
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Iverson