489 FXUS61 KCLE 260141 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 941 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front over the area will lift north as a warm front on Thursday. Low pressure will track northeast across the Central Great Lakes Thursday night through Friday night, pulling this boundary back south as a cold front. The frontal boundary will stall over Central Ohio over the weekend with a stronger cold front pushing south across the area Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 930 pm update... We added patchy fog wording in the zone forecast for most of NEOH and NWPA. Areas that had rainfall today will have better potential of having some patchy fog after midnight through sunrise tomorrow morning. 745 pm update... With this evening near term forecast update, we freshened up the the hourly POPs through the overnight. Basically kept slight POPs, 20 percent or less for the rest of tonight with the weak frontal boundary stalled out over the region. The rest of the forecast through tomorrow looks good with no other adjustments needed at this time. Previous discussion... Showers and thunderstorms have filled in this afternoon generally along and south of Route 30 where the boundary resides and along the northern periphery of a broad upper level ridge. This surface boundary extends northwest to Toledo while northerly flow downwind of Lake Erie is evident on satellite imagery little with cumulus in the lake shadow farther east. Have lowered pops from North Central Ohio to Northwest Pennsylvania this evening while thunderstorms are still expected to fill in westwards towards Findlay and Bowling Green over the next few hours. Thunderstorms that have developed this afternoon and are producing heavy rainfall with freezing levels around 13.5kft and rainfall rates of 2-4" per hour. Observed rainfall looks to range from 0.5-1.25 inch across portions of Morrow and Knox Counties. A localized severe weather threat remains across mainly northwest and central Ohio given ML CAPE values over 2000 J/kg and DCAPE around 900 J/kg and steep low level lapse rates. With limited flow, the severe weather threat is mainly in the form of wet microbursts. Will also need to monitor for any training or back building that could result in localized flooding. Expecting a considerable downtrend to convection after sunset with few if any storms left by midnight. Low pressure is expected to move into southern Wisconsin by morning and expecting to see the stalled boundary overhead start to lift back north. Can not rule out a stray thunderstorm Thursday morning in NW Ohio or towards Lake Erie, or possibly in the eastern fringes of the forecast area where better mid-level moisture looks to be present. Although forcing will be weak again, the expectation is for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to expand during the mid to late afternoon with ML CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg developing again. High resolution models indicate better coverage across NW Ohio and inland areas extending eastward. The nature of the convection will be similar to today with moderate instability, weak shear, and locally heavy rain. Temperatures will range from upper 80s in PA to near 90 in NW Ohio with heat index back into the upper 90s in NW Ohio. It is possible a portion of the area may need at Heat Advisory but with uncertainty given this area will also see the greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Overnight lows remain warm with several areas not dropping below 70 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... We start the day on Friday in the warm sector as low pressure tracks across northern lower Michigan into southern Ontario. The heat continues with most of the area experiencing heat index values in the upper 90s again. The associated cold front will settle south into the area and provide a focus for good coverage of showers and thunderstorms late afternoon into the evening. There is a bit more shear but also the potential for training of storms along this boundary into the overnight. Precipitable water values are near 2 inches along that front and will need to monitor the potential for locally heavy rainfall into Friday night. This boundary settles south to Central Ohio on Saturday and the higher pops shift southward with time. Northern areas start to see some relief from the heat with temperatures dropping back into the low to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Sunday is expected to be the drier day of the weekend as the boundary moves south with high pressure building in from the north. Will hold onto some low chance pops with uncertainty in the placement of the boundary but these will likely trend downward. Warm front lifts back north again Sunday night with a stronger front finally pushing south across the area late Monday. We finally have a more substantial trough push through the eastern Great Lakes, ushering in high pressure for late Tuesday into Wednesday. Humidity values finally drop off behind this front with dewpoints into the low 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... The overall aviation weather message for this evening TAF update is that VFR conditions will continue tonight through Thursday evening. There is a couple isolated, small showers or storm out there this evening along a weak stalled front that is located from west to east across northern Ohio. This stalled surface front will meander over the region through tomorrow and be the focus for widely scattered convection to develop again over the during midday and afternoon Thursday. Tonight will be mostly quiet and no impactful weather is expected through early Thursday morning. There could be some patchy light fog at a few of our TAF sites after 06z to 12z with 5sm visibility possible. Otherwise, we did not put in any potential impacts due to scattered convection in the TAF for Thursday afternoon due to uncertainty on timing and coverage. That may be something that could be added or fine tuned with future TAF updates if needed. Winds will be somewhat light and variable tonight into early Thursday morning. Winds will become northerly 5 to 8 knots on Thursday depending on where that stalled front is located. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through this weekend. && .MARINE... Winds will continue to be light and variable, under 10 kts, as a frontal boundary moves slowly to south of Lake Erie through Thursday night. Friday, a weak low pressure system will move across the Great Lakes and winds will become more predominately south and easterly around 5-10 kts. As the low pressure system moves across Lake Erie throughout the day Friday, winds will shift to be out of the southwest around 10-15 kts. Waves will be generally 2 ft or less through the weekend. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...10 NEAR TERM...10/77 SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM...10 AVIATION...77 MARINE...23