948
FXUS63 KFGF 170558
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1258 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low for
  the next 7 days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Much of the same continues from previous discussion. Lightning-
producing convection has waned since last update, but still
could see a rogue strike here or there given lingering weak
instability amid weak convection.

Front is working its way through Devils Lake basin and Sheyenne
River Valley, slowly continuing east through tonight. Breezy
winds on either side of the front will continue.

UPDATE
Issued at 944 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Showers and thunderstorms have developed along a line west of
the Sheyenne River Valley. Instability is just enough to produce
a few lightning strikes. These are moving very slowly and likely
not all the rain drops are making it to the ground, but you
could see some flashes in the distance. Impacts will be
primarily tied to lightning and should remain fairly minor given
the sparse nature of the lightning.

UPDATE
Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

As of 23z, the front is situated on a line from Minot through
Bismarck and is slowly trudging eastward. Wind gusts will
diminish, however expect breezy conditions to continue until the
front approaches. Precipitation-wise, as expected, the radar
returns continue to be virga. Impacts should remain limited this
evening as a result.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...Synopsis...

Split upper trough will move slowly through western North
America tonight and tomorrow. One main upper low moving from
northern Saskatchewan into Manitoba will help push a cold front
into our CWA. A few sprinkles not out of the question in
northeastern ND this evening as a lead shortwave passes through,
but most of the precipitation will come with the mid level
baroclinic zone tomorrow. Some of the ensemble members are
rather bullish on precipitation amounts thanks to strong
700-850mb frontogenesis, but probabilities of over a half an
inch of liquid are only 10 to 20 percent in spotty areas, and
even a quarter of an inch of rain probs are around 40 percent.
At this point, some light rain seems most likely. Not out of the
question for a few snow flakes to mix in tomorrow morning in the
Devils Lake Basin with HREF showing 50 percent probability.
However, any impacts are very unlikely with METRo roadcasts
keeping our area above freezing.

Still some variation in how the models handle the southern
branch of the split trough this weekend and into Monday. Some
bring its influence and therefore some precipitation into west
central MN, while some do not. NBM has 15-30 POPs in that
period, and see little reason to make changes at this point.
Slightly better agreement on another northern branch shortwave
moving through the Northern Plains on Tuesday, but still a lot
of spread in ensemble members and no clear signal for any
impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Aviation impacts are forecast within TAFs through 06Z Friday.
These impacts stem from very strong LLWS and lowered CIGs.

A very strong low level jet is being measured by KMVX radar,
sampling 60kt winds between 1.5 to 2 kft out of the south-
southeast. This will gradually shift east into Minnesota
tonight, ending at KBJI last at around 10-12Z.

A front moves through tonight into Thursday, bringing gusty
winds out of the north behind/west of the front around 20-30kt,
highest within southeast ND into west-central MN.

As the front moves through, areas of virga will be present,
along with eventually rain making it to the surface this
afternoon. Cannot rule out an isolated lightning bolt with
today`s activity before 12Z.

The front will also bring lowering ceilings into the MVFR
category, mainly after 18Z within the Red River Valley and
Minnesota. Confidence is low in start time of lowered ceilings,
however, mainly due to uncertainty regarding low level moisture.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ/Perroux
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...CJ