948 FXUS63 KFGF 170558 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1258 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low for the next 7 days. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Much of the same continues from previous discussion. Lightning- producing convection has waned since last update, but still could see a rogue strike here or there given lingering weak instability amid weak convection. Front is working its way through Devils Lake basin and Sheyenne River Valley, slowly continuing east through tonight. Breezy winds on either side of the front will continue. UPDATE Issued at 944 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Showers and thunderstorms have developed along a line west of the Sheyenne River Valley. Instability is just enough to produce a few lightning strikes. These are moving very slowly and likely not all the rain drops are making it to the ground, but you could see some flashes in the distance. Impacts will be primarily tied to lightning and should remain fairly minor given the sparse nature of the lightning. UPDATE Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 As of 23z, the front is situated on a line from Minot through Bismarck and is slowly trudging eastward. Wind gusts will diminish, however expect breezy conditions to continue until the front approaches. Precipitation-wise, as expected, the radar returns continue to be virga. Impacts should remain limited this evening as a result. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 ...Synopsis... Split upper trough will move slowly through western North America tonight and tomorrow. One main upper low moving from northern Saskatchewan into Manitoba will help push a cold front into our CWA. A few sprinkles not out of the question in northeastern ND this evening as a lead shortwave passes through, but most of the precipitation will come with the mid level baroclinic zone tomorrow. Some of the ensemble members are rather bullish on precipitation amounts thanks to strong 700-850mb frontogenesis, but probabilities of over a half an inch of liquid are only 10 to 20 percent in spotty areas, and even a quarter of an inch of rain probs are around 40 percent. At this point, some light rain seems most likely. Not out of the question for a few snow flakes to mix in tomorrow morning in the Devils Lake Basin with HREF showing 50 percent probability. However, any impacts are very unlikely with METRo roadcasts keeping our area above freezing. Still some variation in how the models handle the southern branch of the split trough this weekend and into Monday. Some bring its influence and therefore some precipitation into west central MN, while some do not. NBM has 15-30 POPs in that period, and see little reason to make changes at this point. Slightly better agreement on another northern branch shortwave moving through the Northern Plains on Tuesday, but still a lot of spread in ensemble members and no clear signal for any impacts. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Aviation impacts are forecast within TAFs through 06Z Friday. These impacts stem from very strong LLWS and lowered CIGs. A very strong low level jet is being measured by KMVX radar, sampling 60kt winds between 1.5 to 2 kft out of the south- southeast. This will gradually shift east into Minnesota tonight, ending at KBJI last at around 10-12Z. A front moves through tonight into Thursday, bringing gusty winds out of the north behind/west of the front around 20-30kt, highest within southeast ND into west-central MN. As the front moves through, areas of virga will be present, along with eventually rain making it to the surface this afternoon. Cannot rule out an isolated lightning bolt with today`s activity before 12Z. The front will also bring lowering ceilings into the MVFR category, mainly after 18Z within the Red River Valley and Minnesota. Confidence is low in start time of lowered ceilings, however, mainly due to uncertainty regarding low level moisture. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CJ/Perroux DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...CJ