457 FXUS63 KBIS 230851 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 351 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cool, breezy, and mostly dry weather pattern to start the workweek, followed by a very gradual warmup with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. - A few showers and thunderstorms may become strong to severe during the middle of the week, but the best chances for the return of severe weather are towards the end of the workweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Surface high pressure will track through much of the state this afternoon and evening. Ahead of the high, breezy westerly winds are expected this morning before diminishing from west to east this afternoon. Dry conditions and relatively cool temperatures are on tap for the day. This translates to highs in the 60s for most of the state, though the southeast may see some readings in the low 70s. Lows tonight will drop into the 40s for most locations. Other than low chances for light showers in the far southwest, mostly dry conditions are expected for tonight as well. Mostly dry conditions will then persist into Tuesday, though a few showers and thunderstorms are possible in the southwest during the afternoon hours. Overall, instability looks pretty limited in the southwest Tuesday afternoon, though shear remains strong with around 40 to 50 kts of 0 to 6 km bulk shear per the latest RAP and GFS. As a result, severe weather is not favored at this time. Although a couple strong storms aren`t entirely out of the question either. A zonal to southwesterly flow pattern aloft is progged Tuesday night through the remainder of the week. Embedded shortwaves will likely result in the return of an active weather pattern. That said, instability remains pretty low Tuesday night through Thursday morning. Still, higher shear in the southwest Wednesday afternoon could result in few strong to severe storms. Thursday afternoon may see the return of higher instability, though shear is favored to be on the lower end potentially limiting the severe threat. As of now, based on deterministic models and supported by CSU Machine learning, Friday looks like the best day for additional severe weather chances. If this winds up becoming the case, and that remains a big if, it will be the result of elevated instability as southerly flow at the surface pumps Gulf of America moisture into the region, while higher shear values return. Beyond temperatures already mentioned for today, expect highs mostly in the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. A warming trend is then expected to finish off the workweek with highs likely in the 80s across the state, perhaps with some 90 degree readings. Lows Tuesday night and Wednesday night will mostly be in the 50s before some lows in the low 60s are progged Thursday night and Friday night. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 MVFR/IFR ceilings are present across most of the eastern half of the state. These will generally improve from west to east through the night tonight, though MVFR ceilings are also expected at times in the far north. A few showers are possible in the vicinity of KXWA and KJMS within the next couple to few hours, although confidence is low in actually seeing precipitation at either site. Once ceilings and any light showers clear out, expect VFR ceilings and visibility through the remainder of the period. Breezy westerly winds are also expected across the state Monday morning before diminishing from west to east during the afternoon hours. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Telken AVIATION...Telken