600 FXUS63 KBIS 050245 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 945 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near-daily isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. The probability for severe weather is low. - Near to slightly below average temperatures favored through Monday. - Breezy to windy conditions this weekend, especially on Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 944 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Convection from earlier today continues to diminish as it moves through northeast to south central North Dakota this evening. The lingering showers over south central North Dakota have been sustained by an outflow boundary associated with a cluster of storms that had propagated between Highway 200 and Interstate 94. As recently as 9 PM CDT, that dying cluster of convection was still producing wind gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range from near Carrington to Jamestown. But in the half hour since, a significant downward trend in maximum gusts has been observed. A few light showers could continue to percolate across south central North Dakota into the overnight hours, but thunderstorms are no longer expected. UPDATE Issued at 649 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 At 630 PM CDT, the main corridor of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms was located from near Harvey to Fort Yates, moving east at about 30 mph. A 48 mph wind gust was reported as this cluster of storms passed around Bismarck. Otherwise, maximum gusts around 40 mph have been more common. Erratic wind gusts will remain the primary hazard with this line, but the strongest embedded updrafts could also produce some small hail. Both coverage and intensity of convection should diminish later this evening with the loss of diurnal heating. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Currently a upper level trough, around a big low pressure system way up in Canada, is present over the Northern Plains. At the surface, a trough is over eastern Montana and western North Dakota. Diurnal and cyclonically driven cumulus clouds are popcorning all over the state. With these, showers and isolated thunderstorms are forming, and moving east. There is forecast to be less than 1000 J/kg of CAPE today so severe weather is not expected. The wildfire smoke is still present high in the atmosphere and not expected to mix down. Thursday will be more of the same with chances of showers and maybe a thunderstorm. This time mainly just central and south. A shortwave embedded in the cyclonic flow will push through South Dakota. Again, severe weather is not expected. During this time a ridge will be building in the Western CONUS. Friday another small shortwave in the flow will move through, leading to chances of showers and thunderstorms in the southeast half of the state. Saturday and Sunday will be windy as a low pressure system dives out of Canada. Between a cold front and the pressure gradient forces, strong winds will occur. Saturday will mostly be windy in the northwest and north, Sunday will be widespread and possibly needing a Wind Advisory. Temperatures this weekend will be near 80. Next week, a flat ridge sets up with multiple shortwaves embedded off the Montana mountains. More chances for showers and thunderstorms with these, especially Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures could warm to the mid 80s by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 944 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Showers and storms from earlier in the day are dissipating over south central into eastern North Dakota late this evening. Still seeing occasional observations of erratic wind gusts as high as around 30-35 kts as of 02Z, but the frequency of gusts this strong should quickly diminish over the next hour or two. A few light showers could linger across south central North Dakota overnight, with no impacts to aviation expected. On Thursday, afternoon development of showers and thunderstorms will primarily be focused across southern North Dakota, with a few isolated showers possible across the north. Aside from any thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, VFR conditions and light winds are expected through the forecast period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...Hollan