306
FXUS63 KBIS 220914
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
414 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms will push across
  the state from west to east later today through tonight. An
  isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is possible, especially
  in the west.

- Showers and thunderstorms may again be found on Tuesday,
  mainly in the north and east. An isolated strong thunderstorm
  is possible. Expected breezy northwest winds elsewhere.

- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms will be found mid
  week, with increasing chances later this week into this
  weekend.

- Temperatures will remain below average through the middle of
  this week, with a slight warm up favored for the end of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A weak warm front will lift across the state this morning. This
will bring some showers to mainly central and a few eastern
areas. Meanwhile, some increasing low level moisture will bring
some areas of fog across the southwest this morning. Later today
through tonight, an upper level wave and weak cold front will
push across the state from west to east. This will bring the
next round of showers and thunderstorms to the area. Low to
modest instability combined with high shear could bring some
strong to severe thunderstorms during this time period, mainly
to western and some central portions. SPC has maintained a
Marginal Risk for severe weather in the southwest today. This
area sees the higher shear values overlap with the mentioned
modest CAPE. Main threat still looks to be hail to the size of
quarters given the high amounts of shear, although CAPE profiles
look somewhat skinny. DCAPE is low, yet 0 to 3 KM shear is
high. Perhaps some wind gusts in excess of 50 mph are possible
as a result. Pwat values are forecast near to slightly above an
inch, which could indicate some localized heavy rain possible.
WPC currently has northern and some central portions in a
Marginal Risk for excessive rain as well today through tonight.
Otherwise look for slightly warmer temperatures today, with
highs generally in the 70s. A steady south wind will also be
found today, switching to the west tonight with passage of the
cold front. Lows tonight will generally be near 50 degrees. Post
frontal day is expected for Tuesday, with breezy northwest
winds and slightly cooler temperatures in the mid 60s to mid
70s. Showers and thunderstorms could be found across the north
and some eastern areas for Tuesday. SPC has a Marginal Risk for
severe weather in eastern ND on Tuesday, and will greatly depend
on timing of the eastward progression of the cold front. Most
of this Marginal Risk is east of the CWA, although an isolated
strong to severe storm is possible, mainly in the James River
Valley. Precipitation diminishes Tuesday night, with cooler lows
in the 40s west to near 50 degrees east.

Broad upper low could remain across southern Canada mid week,
bringing northwest flow to the area. Slight to chance PoPs
remain in the north for Wednesday to account for this stalled
upper low, while generally dry conditions are expected elsewhere.
Slightly below normal temperatures may linger for Wednesday,
with some breezy northwest winds in the east. Weak ridging is
forecast to move through for Thursday and should bring a mainly
dry forecast except for some slight chances in the northeast and
southwest. Warming temperatures in the 70s will also be found
for Thursday, with light winds becoming east southeast.

Friday through the upcoming weekend a return to active weather
could be in store as the weak ridging gives way to a large
trough pattern from a broad upper low in the west. The southwest
flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface should at least
provide for warming temperatures Friday through the weekend.
However, this southerly flow could be breezy to windy with the
ECMWF EFI values starting to get elevated for Saturday and
Sunday. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will also
return with this pattern. SPC discussion for days 4-8 still
makes mention of this unsettled pattern bringing severe weather
to the plains, however, timing and location remain uncertain.
NSSL and CSU machine learning guidance still indicating severe
weather may return each day, especially Saturday and Sunday.
Something to continue to monitor for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Showers will move across the forecast area tonight, although
confidence was only high enough to include PROB30 groups at
KMOT. Some lower clouds may move into the southwest bringing
some MVFR ceilings and perhaps patchy fog. These MVFR ceilings
could impact the KDIK area, with confidence too low to include
fog mention in any TAFs. Mainly VFR conditions are expected
through the day on Monday. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms may move through from west to east later Monday
through Monday night. Most sites have PROB30 groups to account
for this potential. This shower activity could bring some MVFR
conditions at times.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin