418
FXUS63 KBIS 240750
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
150 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of freezing drizzle can be expected this morning south
  central, with patchy freezing drizzle possible elsewhere.

- Below normal temperatures are expected this weekend and
  through next week. The coldest period is forecast over the
  Thanksgiving Holiday weekend.

- While no major storms are forecast for next week, weather
  disturbances moving through the region will bring chances for
  light snow at times.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 137 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Earlier we added freezing drizzle to the forecast through early
this morning, along with putting out a Special Weather
Statement for slick road surfaces south central. Will continue
to monitor and adjust as needed. Embedded impulse lifting east-
northeast providing the lifting mechanism, with a low level
stratus deck in place, coupled with an easterly upslope flow and
a mid level dry layer. May need to further expand.

The remainder of the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 1006 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Snow has been reluctant to develop over much of the area, as
a look at observations and webcams has been unimpressive.
Therefore, have trimmed back some on precipitation chances. As
for fog, models are quite hit and miss on some developing, so
will continue with patchy fog across much of the area late
tonight into Sunday morning.

UPDATE
Issued at 629 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Snow has been slow to develop over the area, but expect
development to commence over the next couple of hours, primarily
over northern locations. Otherwise, besides increasing cloud
cover, forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

An upper level ridge continues to move across the state this
afternoon. Ahead of the ridge is an upper level short wave with
some snow showers. The wave continues to weaken, therefore PoPs
were reduced to match the current trends. Upper level troughing
out over the Northern Rockies will push eastward today into the
Northern Plains. The upper low will remain in Canada with
majority of the lift staying north. Snow is only really forecast
north of highway 200 with majority of the accumulations being
along the International Border. The 25th to 75th total snow
accumulations remain around 1 to 2 inches along the
International Border while the remainder of the state could be
trace to one inch. This system will exit the region by tomorrow.
Overnight lows are forecast to drop down into the teens north
to the lower 20s southeast. Tomorrow`s high temperatures are
forecast to be a lot like today as low clouds linger across the
region. Low stratus if forecast to move in from eastern Montana
today. Low stratus tonight could lead to patchy fog and freezing
drizzle in the James River Valley through tomorrow morning.
This could lead to light rime ice accumulations on trees and
walk ways.

The upper low over Canada will move out of the region with a
cold front following behind. This cold front will bring colder
temperatures across the state. Monday high temperatures may only
climb out into the lower teens north to 20s south. The upper
level pattern will lock into northwesterly flow as high pressure
builds out west and low pressure stalls in Great Lakes region.
This will keep our pattern relatively dry through the week with
cold air remaining lock in place. There could be a few weak
waves that come through the region resulting in light snow
throughout the week. Temperatures are forecast to remain in the
teens up north and the 20s down south. These below normal
temperatures will linger through weekend as another burst of
cold air move trough the region. This will lead to cold
temperatures persisting through Thanksgiving. Low temperatures
are forecast to drop down to 15 below north to 0 south by Friday
morning with possible wind chills down to 30 below.

The pattern begins to become more uncertain through next
weekend. If the upper level ridge shifts further east that
would result in "warmer" temperatures or if the ridge remains
locked in colder temperatures will persist. The warmer solution
has about 60 percent chance while the colder solution is around
40 percent chance. This is reflected in the NBM 25th-75th which
has over a 30 degree spreed for high temperatures early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 137 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings remain over most locations,
along with pockets of LIFR. This will continue into Sunday
morning, with some improvement through the morning and into the
afternoon west to east. Areas of freezing drizzle south central
this morning, with patchy freezing drizzle possible elsewhere.
Patchy to areas of fog as well through Sunday morning. The FZDZ
and fog will lead to periods of reduced visibility.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...NH