027 FXUS63 KBIS 092343 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 643 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - High temperatures warm into the 70s and mid 80s for Tuesday, then will trend cooler into the mid 60s to mid 70s Wednesday through Friday. - Near surface smoke may return tonight through Tuesday. - Daily chances for showers and a few thunderstorms will increase mid to late this week, with the greatest chances for precipitation on Thursday (40 to 70 percent). - Heading into the weekend, temperatures are favored to trend a bit warmer (highs in the 70s to around 80), along with continued decent chances (30 to 60 percent) for showers and thunderstorms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Mostly clear skies are present, although elevated smoke persists across the area resulting in a hazy horizon and a milky sky. Otherwise, quiet conditions are expected this evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Currently, large upper level low over the Great Lakes region with a broad upper level ridge across the western CONUS this afternoon. Ridge of surface high pressure in place across the Great Plains. Extensive low clouds continue to erode west to east as dry air associated with the sfc ridge moves into the region. Temperatures have warmed into the 70s where the sky has cleared and more hours of sunshine have occurred, while my east remains cooler, still in the mid 50s where clouds have been slower to clear out. Quiet night ahead with northwest flow aloft and a sfc trough/frontal boundary approaching from the north. Will maintain some low chances for showers with this feature across the Turtle Mountains. Smoke is once again forecast to move into the region from north to south tonight along and behind the FROPA, spreading south through the day Tuesday. Warmer as will for tomorrow, with highs in the mid 80s south ahead of the CAA and in the 70s north behind the front. The broad upper level ridge flattens through mid-week, with flow aloft transitioning to more zonal. Embedded waves will bring some precipitation chances to our region Wednesday/Wed night, along with temperatures trending cooler. A more robust embedded S/WV will cross the Rockies Wed night, and then across the Dakotas Thu/Thu night. Strong easterly upslope flow north of a sfc low/trough in South Dakota, coupled with forcing ahead of the wave, will result in widespread showers during much of the day and evening Thursday across western and central North Dakota, with a few thunderstorms across the south possible near a warm frontal zone across northern SD. Farther north, shower chances will be less with little if any moisture expected. A west/southwest flow pattern is then projected for the upcoming weekend into early next week. This pattern will support temperatures trending a bit warmer along with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms for the region. CSU prob predictions suggest an increased threat for strong to severe storms, which is in line with this flow pattern forecast. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 VFR ceilings and visibility, along with light winds, are present. Winds will become variable this evening and remain variable into Tuesday morning. Areas of smoke are expected to return tonight. Initially smoke will enter in the northwest before expanding across all of western through central ND Tuesday morning. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Telken DISCUSSION...NH AVIATION...Telken