882 FXUS63 KBIS 220853 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 353 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today. A few storms may become severe with quarter size hail and 60 mph winds being the primary threats. - A cooler weather pattern will be found to start this week, followed by a very gradual warmup, with near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Two surface low center circulations are present. One over southern Saskatchewan and one over western Nebraska. Through the morning hours and into the early afternoon, the northwesterly low will merge with the one initially over western Nebraska that will be simultaneously propagating to the northeast through eastern South Dakota. These circulations will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms and much cooler temperatures to northern and western ND. Southeastern ND will remain hot and muggy today. At this time, showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop and expand into western and south central ND. A small cluster that has recently entered from South Dakota near the Missouri River produced a severe thunderstorm earlier on the South Dakota side that has since weakened. 0 to 6 km bulk shear is around 40 kts in that area with elevated instability in excess of 2000 J/kg. These high instabilities should be contracting from north to south through the morning hours, though remain elevated in central ND near the ND/SD border and the James River Valley. Bottom line is that the cluster is gradually moving into a bit less favorable environment, but still remains favorable enough to potentially produce a few strong to severe storms this morning. Further west near the ND/MT border, there is limited instability available, though plenty of shear. This too could result in a few strong to severe thunderstorms in the far southwest this morning. In either case, the primary threats at this time are quarter size hail and 60 mph winds. These showers and thunderstorms should continue expanding in coverage this morning before ending from south to north in the afternoon and evening. A few isolated showers could wrap into the south central this evening and tonight, however. For Monday, mostly dry conditions are expected, though a few additional wrap-around showers are possible. Beyond that, periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through the remainder of the week. CSU machine learning hints at a few low end severe weather chances towards the end of the week. Will monitor over the next few days to see if those chances increase or decrease. Overall temperatures for this week are expected to be much cooler. Highs today will range from the 60s north and west to the low 90s far southeast. Highs Monday should then range from the low 60s to low 70s before temperatures return to the 70s across the state on Tuesday. NBM highs are progged to return to the 80s across most of the forecast area by the end of the week. However, these are closer to the 25th percentile. As a result, it`s very possible a day or two towards the end of the week will see a return into the 90s for at least some of the area. Cooler overnight temperatures are also expected with lows in the 40s and 50s for the first half of the week, and the 50s and 60s to end the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 114 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through the period. A few of these storms may become strong to severe, mainly in central and eastern North Dakota. Overall though, pinpointing the exact location and timing of any impacts at any terminal will be difficult. Therefore, used PROB30 groups for all terminals at times during the period. With these showers and thunderstorms, MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected to develop across most of the state tonight and through the day Sunday. The KJMS ASOS appears to have returned to service, therefore no longer using AMD NOT SKED. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Telken AVIATION...Telken