452 FXUS63 KFGF 122347 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 647 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain continues across southeastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota. There is a 90 percent chance for over 1 inch of rain tonight into Friday afternoon south of the I-94 corridor. - Period of strong to severe storms next week in some locations. && .UPDATE... Issued at 646 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 As of 645 PM, a stationary front is draped near I90 in SD. To the north of the front, rain and thunderstorms have developed. The heaviest/steadiest rain has remained in northern SD, where 2 to 4 inches has fallen. Lighter rain extends north of the state line into ND, with NDAWN showing up to a half inch in southeastern ND. Based on current trends, further convective development is likely in northern SD, with the heaviest training thunderstorms remaining just south of this FA. Of course small shifts could push the heaviest precipitation a little further north, so we will continue to monitor it closely through the evening. Otherwise the forecast remains on track, with just a few tweaks to precipitation timing. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 332 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 ...Synopsis... Near zonal flow with several weak shortwaves moving through tonight and tomorrow, with one such shortwave near the SD border this afternoon. We will stay on the cool side of the baroclinic zone and instability will be fairly limited this afternoon and again Friday. The weak shortwaves will continue over the top of a ridge as it starts to build into the Plains for the weekend and into Monday. A stronger trough coming in by Tuesday, with a surface low moving through the southern Red River Valley. A brief break on Wednesday with northwesterly flow and then another ridge rider possible for Thursday. ...Rain tonight and tomorrow in southern counties... Rain that has pushed into the southern CWA from SD so far has ranged from a few hundredths to nearly half an inch. A little bit of a break with rain getting more showery, but then the CAMs bring in another round of showers and even few isolated thunderstorms up from SD. Higher ends of the NBM bring up to 3 to 3.5 inches into our southern counties. Moisture transport is good and there is 1.5 inches of pwats to work with, but instability is pretty weak. Probabilities from the HREF for an inch or more are very high down along the SD border, but drop to around 50 percent for over 2 inches and less than 10 percent for more than 3 inches. Given that the rain is expected over a fairly large time frame from tonight into tomorrow, expect more of a soaking rain than anything that would cause problems from heavy rain. ...More active pattern in the extended... Several shortwaves coming through the zonal flow or over top of ridging. ECMWF EFI as some 50th to 70th percentiles for CAPE above climatology, but mostly to our south and west. Can`t rule out convection this time of year, especially with the stronger shortwaves coming through Monday and Tuesday. Machine learning, both the Pangu and FengWu, have 5 to 15 percent probabilities for severe impacts into our counties Sunday and continuing into the upcoming work week. Details impossible to parse out at the point, but definitely looks more active. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 646 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Rain is pushing into KFAR, with lowering ceilings at all TAF sites. VFR conditions this evening will give way to MVFR at KFAR, KGFK, KTVF and KBJI tonight into Friday morning. As we progress through Friday, rain showers will end, with rising ceilings. MVFR will hang on longest at KFAR and KBJI, as clouds and low level moisture persist longest. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Rafferty DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...Rafferty