719
FXUS63 KFGF 081959
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
259 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated lightning expected through this evening.

- Several rounds of thunderstorms possible next week, with up to
  a 10 percent probability of severe convection.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

...Synopsis...

Upper low will continue to dig into the Upper Midwest tonight
before shifting off into the Great Lakes tomorrow. Showers and
cool conditions will remain into the start of the work week.
Northwesterly flow aloft sets up behind the upper low, with some
signal in the ensemble for a few weak embedded shortwaves. Many
of the ensemble members bring a strong shortwave through late
Thursday into Friday, although there is a lot of variation in
exact track and timing. Some ridging starts to build in by next
weekend, but several of the ensemble members have some weak
ridge riders so more active weather continues.

...Isolated thunderstorms this evening...

Scattered showers continue across the much of the forecast area,
with northwest winds that are just shy of wind advisory
criteria in some spots. With showers and cold air advection
still helping with momentum transfer, can`t completely rule out
some winds getting to advisory criteria so will keep the
headline going. Of greater impact could be a few isolated
thunderstorms that are developing in northwestern MN thanks to
some CAPE between 250 and 500 J/kg. Some of the ensemble members
have MU CAPE rising to just above 1000 J/kg this afternoon, but
the HREF calibrated probability of thunder tops out at 30 to 40
percent along our eastern border, where most lightning has been
detected so far. So far the lightning activity has been mostly
over sparsely populated areas of MN lakes country but will
continue to monitor.

...More active pattern into next week...

Better low level moisture sets up next week with several weak
shortwaves coming through the northwesterly flow or over the top
of a ridge. Naturally, predictability is pretty low at this
point, but machine learning has some 10 percent probabilities
for severe convection in some of our counties for several days.
There isn`t enough certainty to start messaging severe chances
on any particular day, but it does look like a period of more
active weather coming up.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Showers and MVFR to lower VFR ceilings continue to rotate across
the forecast area. Some of the showers could intensify,
especially further east so have KFAR and the MN airports with a
VCTS mention for a time this afternoon. Showers and any
thunderstorms will taper off by late evening, but MVFR and
eventually IFR ceilings will linger into the overnight. Winds
that are gusting above 25 kts from the northwest will remain
fairly breezy through the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006-014-015-
     024-026-028-038-049-052.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...JR