988
FXUS63 KFGF 200955
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
355 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Blowing snow will impact travel conditions into the morning
  hours across portions of the Devils Lake basin and far western
  Red River Valley in northeast North Dakota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

...Synopsis...

A cold FROPA last evening into the overnight is bringing gusty
winds, colder temperatures and areas of blowing early this morning.
This front is associated with a low located over southern Manitoba.
Zonal flow will whisk this system east, with persistent zonal flow
thereafter into early next week. With zonal flow comes waves
riding the jet, with one such wave arriving Monday. PoPs are
fairly low with this system, as its track would favor most of
the QPF to fall up in Canada. Of course we will continue to
monitor this over the next couple of days, as there are a
handful of ensemble members with a bit more southern track that
would increase QPF over at least portions of our FA.

Behind the early week wave, cooler air will filter in, keeping
temperatures much colder for Tuesday. The upper level pattern begins
to shift though by the middle of the week, with broad ridging taking
hold over the central US. This will lead to much warmer temperatures
going into the Christmas holiday. As ridging breaks down late in the
forecast period, southwest flow develops. Ensembles diverge in their
solutions by this point in the forecast, with the only real themes
to take away at this point being 1) temperatures will cool back down
and 2) precipitation chances are hard to pinpoint until ensembles
can determine the placement of synoptic features better.

...Blowing Snow this Morning...

A cold front has worked through the FA early this morning, with
temperatures dropping below zero near the International Border.
Winds were a little gustier then anticipated, with a 57 mph gust
reported near Langdon, and a spattering of 50 to 55 mph gusts
from Devils Lake through the western edge of the Red River
Valley. Now that the main surge of CAA has worked through, winds
have leveled off, and should continue to slowly dwindle through
the morning hours. Obviously winds of this magnitude have
resulted in more blowing snow overnight, something we have
become all too familiar with this week. Visibilities dropped as
low as a quarter mile during the initial period of higher winds,
but have now improved some, with most sites under one mile.
Therefore, the winter weather advisory for just west of the Red
River Valley still seems reasonable, with an expiration time of
9 AM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1159 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Aviation impacts are forecast at TAF sites due to reduced
visibility, lowered ceilings, and gusty winds leading to blowing
snow.

Cold front sweeps through the area tonight, turning winds west-
northwest between 20-30 mph, gusting 35-50 mph, highest in
northeast North Dakota. These gusty winds will create blowing
snow, reducing visibility generally between 2-5SM. The exception
to this will be within northeast North Dakota (including KDVL),
where visibilities may dip 1SM or less before 15Z.

MVFR ceilings are also forecast at several TAF sites throughout
the TAF period. Confidence is this, however, is low to medium.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for NDZ007-
     015-026-028-029-054.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...CJ