676
FXUS63 KFGF 170537
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1137 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong winter storm will impact the region Wednesday night
  through Thursday. There is a high chance of blizzard
  conditions in the northern half of the Red River Valley and
  northeastern North Dakota and a medium chance for blizzard
  conditions in southeastern North Dakota and southern Red River
  Valley. The probability of blizzard conditions will be driven
  by coverage of falling snow.

- High winds are expected to develop regardless of snowfall.
  Gusts as high as 70 mph are possible from Wednesday night
  through Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Low clouds continue to linger over parts of eastern ND and
remain widespread across northwest MN where there have also
been a few reports of flurries over the last few hours. CAA is
bringing much colder air in to the region and where skies are
clearing temperatures are dropping to the lower teens.
Adjustments were made to reflect these trend

UPDATE
Issued at 652 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Winds have generally trended down with only period gusts being
reported around 40 mph over parts of northwest/west central MN
where the 925MB CAA max is transitioning east. Gradient is
relaxing and the stronger LLJ is moving to the southeast, so
with the threat for 45 mph+ gusts ending the High Wind Warning
and Wind Advisories were allowed to expire. Stratus is lingering
across much of eastern ND and northwest MN, with some clearing
trends upstream in southwest Manitoba.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

...Synopsis...

Strong shortwave moving into Ontario has helped bring the
surface trough axis and cold front into the CWA this afternoon.
This shortwave will move quickly off to the east tonight, with
an even stronger system digging into southern Saskatchewan and
eastern MT. South winds will return by daybreak Wednesday and
continue for much of the day as the surface low moves into the
western Plains. The upper low will be coming into the Dakotas
Wednesday night, with the surface low somewhere along the
international border. While there is still a lot of variation
with the exact track of the low and heaviest snow band, there is
good agreement with ensemble members with a tight pressure
gradient and very strong cold air advection on the backside of
the system. That cold air advection will continue into Thursday,
and then another shortwave comes across southern Canada for
Friday. A bit of a break over the weekend with northwesterly
flow before flow becomes more zonal for early next week. Could
see a few weak shortwaves moving through during that time period
bringing some light precip and pushing cold fronts through, but
timing hard to nail down at this point.

...High winds this afternoon and evening...

With temperatures this afternoon ahead of the cold front
over-performing and rising into the 40s and even pushing 50 in
some spots, there has been a bit more mixing of the boundary
layer than expected. Then, when the cold front pushes through,
gusts of up to 60 mph are being able to be mixed down from
around 850mb. Winds at Jamestown gusted up to 62 mph, and
probabilities of over 55 mph in much of eastern ND are up to 30
to 60 percent. Probs of over 60 mph are even 30 percent in some
places. Therefore, went ahead and put out a high wind warning
for portions of the Red River Valley and western parts of the
Devils Lake and Sheyenne Basins. Winds should start to come
down quickly this evening as the surface low moves east and the
pressure gradient relaxes.

...Still some spread in how the ensembles are handling the
surface low Wednesday night into Thursday. With warm
temperatures expected to return and even some rain and freezing
rain possible on the backside of the system, most of the current
snow will not be blowable. Will have to depend on falling snow,
and ensemble spread from the 10th to 90th percentiles range as
high as 1 to 8 inches in our northeastern counties. Even with
lower amounts, 1 to 2 inches of new snow should be enough to
blow around and cause widespread whiteout conditions. Confidence
in blizzard conditions is highest near the Canadian border,
decreasing further south towards the Highway 200 corridor. South
of Highway 200, there will be at least a little bit of snow late
Wednesday night and Thursday, but confidence is lower in a long
period of widespread whiteout conditions. Still high enough to
include all our eastern ND and MN Red River Valley counties in a
winter storm watch from midnight to Thursday evening.

...Winds late Wednesday night into Thursday...

With an even stronger system and a short distance between the
surface high over Canada and low along the international border,
the pressure gradient and cold air advection could even
outperform today`s winds. Probability of over 60 mph gusts are
up around 60 percent for portions of the Red River Valley, and
there are even some 20 percent chances of getting to 70 mph.
ECMWF EFI has very strong signal for high winds If for some
reason the snow is further north than we are expecting, will
need a high wind warning for portions of our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1137 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

MVFR stratus is slowly beginning to erode as drier air moves
into eastern ND and northwest MN, though there are still narrow
bands of stratus stubbornly backbuilding from the upstream that
may delay the arrival of prevailing VFR until after 8-10Z.
Northwest winds are gradually decreasing below 12kt and after a
brief period of lighter and variable winds, southerly flow
increases Wednesday morning as low pressure builds upstream into
western ND. A strong low pressure system that will eventually
move over the region later Wednesday will bing with it several
strong low level jets (southerly then westerly) resulting in
additional periods of low level shear (40-55kt). Winds at the
surface eventually shift to the northwest Wednesday evening with
stronger winds developing after this TAF period.

Precipitation chances increase Wednesday evening, along with,
MVFR to IFR conditions. Initially rain will be favored, with
snow and blowing snow chances increasing after the current TAF
period when VLIFR conditions may develop where blizzard
conditions develop (best chances at KGFK and KDVL).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     afternoon for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
     052>054.
MN...Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     afternoon for MNZ001>009-013>016-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...DJR