056 FXUS63 KFGF 230131 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 831 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms through this evening. Hazards include wind gusts to 70 mph, large hail up to 2.5 inches, and a few tornadoes. - Heat index values approach or exceed 100 degrees in the southern Red River Valley and portions of west central Minnesota through 7 PM. Heat related impacts are expected. - Periodic chances for severe thunderstorms return late next week into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 815 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Severe storms capable of producing tornadoes continues until around 10 PM for far northwestern MN north of Red Lakes to Lake of the Woods. Elsewhere within Minnesota, the cold front has yet to push through. However, water vapor imagery strongly suggests subsidence is limiting convective initiation along the cold front. There is still a chance for additional thunderstorm development, however the chance is low. Behind the cold front, gusty northwest winds to 30 mph are moving in, along with cooler temperatures. Speaking of temperatures, very humid conditions near just ahead of the cold front in west-central MN as noted by dew points in the upper 70s. While the Heat Advisory has expired, hot and very humid conditions will continue just ahead of the front, even after sunset. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 ...Synopsis... SW flow is in place still across the Northern Plains/upper Midwest while a larger positively tilted trough over the upper Rockies moves east. This flow is maintaining deep moisture and instability in place, but as the trough moves east, along with a stronger cold front, much lower Tds, milder air, and stable conditions are expected early next week. Late next week there is a shift in the pattern back to zonal flow (west with southwesterly components), with rising heights again. This brings higher temperatures and periodic severe chances once again. Multiple machine learning systems highlight 5-10% probabilities for severe potential for parts are much of our region Friday into next weekend. ...Severe Thunderstorm Threat This Evening... Prefrontal trough axis bisecting the Red River Valley and northwest Minnesota southwest to northeast, with a cold front pushing into Devils Lake Basin currently. Very buoyant air mass is in place, with steep mid level lapse rates along/ahead of the surface trough. Deep layer shear and favorable shear profiles/hodographs support discrete supercells, in a low CIN environment where a tornado watch is in place. All modes of severe are favored through 7pm with a transition towards less surface based convection as the cold front pushes east and much more stable air works east. Eventually we decouple and the entire pattern shifts out of our area later this evening (mainly through 10pm in our east). && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 815 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Showers and thunderstorms may impact KBJI before 03Z. LIFR to MVFR ceilings will be the main impact to TAF sites this afternoon into evening. Low ceilings will start to lift between 09Z - 12Z. Northwest winds 10-25kt prevail through 09Z before shifting out of the west with similar speed after 12Z. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CJ DISCUSSION...DJR AVIATION...CJ