435
FXUS63 KFGF 150045
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
645 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and light snow this weekend, with a 40 - 60% probability
  for a tenth of an inch of snow accumulation or greater in the
  Devils Lake Basin.

- Unsettled pattern into next week. Predictability is lower
  right now, with scenarios highly dependent upon track of the
  system.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Clouds continue to linger across all of Minnesota and portions
of North Dakota. Fog remains possible this evening but the
confidence in this arising is low due to ongoing stratus.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

...Synopsis...

Stratus currently lingers over eastern North Dakota and the state of
Minnesota this afternoon. Clouds will stick around into the weekend
in some capacity across the majority of the FA. The possibility (20 -
 40% probability) for fog is present once again tonight, mainly in
northwestern Minnesota. The synoptic pattern will switch to more
unsettled, with a shortwave trough this weekend and a larger system
into mid next week. Looking at 850mb temperatures, the larger system
looks to secure the hold of colder air in the region. Temperatures
seem to reflect this, with highs dropping into the 30s by
Wednesday.

...Weekend Precipitation...

A shortwave trough will traverse through the northern plains this
weekend. This system is mainly a glancing blow for our FA, with the
northwestern portions around the Devils Lake Basin taking the brunt.
Currently, totals look to be less than an inch, with probabilities
for greater than a tenth of an inch of accumulation around 40 - 60%
in the northern Devils Lake Basin. For 1" or more, probabilities
drop to 10 - 20% and shrinks the likely area to northern Towner
county. When you look at QPF, more of the area along and north of US
HWY-2 will see some precipitation with this shortwave, but as you
move south and east of the Devils Lake Basin, the more likely
precipitation type is rain instead of snow.

...Next Week...

As for the larger system, the forecast gets less certain. We know
that a decent trough will impact the northern plains early to mid
week next week, but what we are still unsure of is impacts to
eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. The impacts we see
will be highly dependent on the track of the low pressure system,
which is not certain in guidance yet. There are two "dominant"
scenarios in guidance right now, a southerly track and a northerly
track. The southerly track would result in colder conditions here in
the FA, but limit our QPF and snow totals. The northerly track would
result in more QPF for the area because of warm air advection, but
snow totals in this scenario are still uncertain. As this system
moves out of the extended period and into the shorter term period,
things will become more certain, but it does look like the time for
the first flakes to fly in the area in near.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 505 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

IFR ceilings will remain around through at least 06z,
potentially lingering through as late as 12z. There is very low
certainty in how long these ceilings will linger around so for
now just prepare for IFR conditions. Winds will remain fairly
light below 10 knots, although DVL may experience winds a bit
higher between 10-15 knots early this evening. No other aviation
impacts are expected at this time.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...AH
AVIATION...Perroux