075
FXUS63 KFGF 220808
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
308 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday
  afternoon and evening. Primary hazards will be damaging wind
  gusts to 70 mph, large hail up to 2 inches, and isolated
  tornadoes.

- Heat index values approach or exceed 100 degrees in the
  southern Red River Valley and portions of west central
  Minnesota. Heat related impacts are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

...Synopsis...

H5 ridging continues to work eastward into the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes region today. Shortwave activity will traverse the
western flank of the ridge ahead of a cold front that moves into
eastern North Dakota this afternoon. Dew points ahead of the front
are in the low to mid 70s, which will combine with afternoon highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s to allow heat index values upwards of
100 degrees. The cold front will bring a chance for showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with severe thunderstorms
possible. Much cooler temperatures return on Monday, along with
lower humidity. Look for minimal rain chances Monday and Tuesday,
with increased chances for showers and thunderstorms starting
Wednesday afternoon.

...Severe Thunderstorm Risk this Afternoon and Evening...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening along and ahead of a cold front. Development could begin as
early as late morning as an H7 shortwave moves along the upper flow
from southwest to northeast. The resultant theta-e gradient could
provide an axis of development for supercells or hybrid clusters by
midday. Soundings support SBCAPE upwards of 4000 J/Kg, along with 25
to 50 knots of low to mid level shear. This, along with a relatively
deep effective inflow layer, will support a mention of isolated
tornado potential, along with large hail upwards of 2 inches in
association with any supercells that develop. As convection goes
upscale during the afternoon and evening, high DCAPE of 1300 to 1700
J/Kg will support damaging wind gusts of 70 mph or higher. CAMs do
not show great agreement in where initiation takes place; however,
there is some consensus on the central Red River Valley and points
east.

...Heat Impacts Expected This Weekend...

A combination of high dew points in the 70s and afternoon
temperatures in the 90s, will provide an environment supportive
of heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees. Best chances will
be in the southern Red River Valley and portions of west central
Minnesota. A heat advisory remains in effect through late this
afternoon, with temperatures falling substantially following
today`s cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

VFR conditions becoming MVFR tomorrow as scattered
thunderstorms in the late morning become widespread by the
afternoon. Some fog potential in the BJI and TVF areas tonight
through confidence is too low at this time to put in the taf
(10z to 15z). Thunderstorms across northern sites (gaining
confidence FAR will stay clear of that threat) beginning by 18z
for most sites with the threat persisting through 00z at most
and until 06z at some sites. Tried to convey that shra and tsra
but overall just a 6-12 hour period were multiple rounds of
thunder are possible with a wind shift behind a cold front NE/E
to SW/W

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ052-053.
MN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for MNZ006-009-016-017-022>024-027-028.
     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ029>032-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...TT