650 FXUS63 KFGF 170246 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 946 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low for the next 7 days. && .UPDATE... Issued at 944 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Showers and thunderstorms have developed along a line west of the Sheyenne River Valley. Instability is just enough to produce a few lightning strikes. These are moving very slowly and likely not all the rain drops are making it to the ground, but you could see some flashes in the distance. Impacts will be primarily tied to lightning and should remain fairly minor given the sparse nature of the lightning. UPDATE Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 As of 23z, the front is situated on a line from Minot through Bismarck and is slowly trudging eastward. Wind gusts will diminish, however expect breezy conditions to continue until the front approaches. Precipitation-wise, as expected, the radar returns continue to be virga. Impacts should remain limited this evening as a result. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 ...Synopsis... Split upper trough will move slowly through western North America tonight and tomorrow. One main upper low moving from northern Saskatchewan into Manitoba will help push a cold front into our CWA. A few sprinkles not out of the question in northeastern ND this evening as a lead shortwave passes through, but most of the precipitation will come with the mid level baroclinic zone tomorrow. Some of the ensemble members are rather bullish on precipitation amounts thanks to strong 700-850mb frontogenesis, but probabilities of over a half an inch of liquid are only 10 to 20 percent in spotty areas, and even a quarter of an inch of rain probs are around 40 percent. At this point, some light rain seems most likely. Not out of the question for a few snow flakes to mix in tomorrow morning in the Devils Lake Basin with HREF showing 50 percent probability. However, any impacts are very unlikely with METRo roadcasts keeping our area above freezing. Still some variation in how the models handle the southern branch of the split trough this weekend and into Monday. Some bring its influence and therefore some precipitation into west central MN, while some do not. NBM has 15-30 POPs in that period, and see little reason to make changes at this point. Slightly better agreement on another northern branch shortwave moving through the Northern Plains on Tuesday, but still a lot of spread in ensemble members and no clear signal for any impacts. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 There will be quite the myriad of aviation impacts, from wind shear to MVFR ceilings to wind gusts and rain showers. Starting with the first six hours, wind gusts will remain through sunset tonight, with continued elevated sustained winds between 10-15 knots thereafter. A front will push through this evening and overnight from west to east, although this front has been slowgoing on getting its way through. As of 23z, the rough front location is situated between MOT down through BIS. Ahead of this front, low-level wind shear will develop (or already has looking at PIREPs) and intensify as we approach sunset. Once the front pushes closer, speed wind shear should diminish. As this front comes through, winds will diminish at the surface to primarily light and variable, then becoming northerly and intensifying again to 10-15 knots sustained. Gusts should hold off until after 07z but cannot be ruled out prior to this. Once a TAF site hits northerly winds, they will stay there for the remainder of the TAF period. Down-valley winds at GFK and FAR will push wind gusts to at least 30 knots by the afternoon, possibly higher. Ceilings will remain VFR, although virga may be observed at DVL early this evening. Precipitation chances look to increase as we approach 12z, combined with ceilings beginning to lower. VFR ceilings should remain through at least 12z, but will fall to MVFR by 18z for pretty much all TAF sites outside of DVL (although DVL may come close to MVFR). There is a signal (a 30% chance) for IFR ceilings to develop, mainly at FAR and BJI, but for the most part, ensemble models are trending towards 2000 feet for ceilings. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Perroux DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...Perroux