188 FXUS63 KFGF 100420 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1120 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and isolated thunderstorms possible both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. Minimal chances for widespread severe weather through Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1115 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Some weak showers may cross into northeast North Dakota overnight, but amounts will be very light and therefore only limited impacts can be expected. For the most part, dry air should limit what makes it to the surface and instability is significantly lacking so not expecting thunderstorms at this time. UPDATE Issued at 949 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Clouds continue to push eastward. Impacts tonight will remain very limited. Fog may arise in some spots although we are fairly dry so confidence is low and winds do increase as we get towards mid-morning. Other than that, quiet weather persists. UPDATE Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Light showers will continue to diminish as the main low pushes east away from our area. Skies will clear from west to east overnight tonight with minimal weather impacts expected overnight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 341 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 ...Synopsis... H5 trough remains nearly cut off across the Upper Midwest, slowly drifting east through the remainder of the evening and into Tuesday. Upper flow becomes increasingly zonal from Wednesday onward, with a series of shortwaves bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. The system on Wednesday will primarily bring precipitation to portions of the southern Red River Valley and far southeastern North Dakota. Thursday`s system tracks slightly further north, allowing a mention of isolated thunderstorms as far north as perhaps the Highway 200 corridor. The probability for MUCAPE greater than 1000 J/Kg is less than 50 percent Wednesday afternoon, mainly along and south of Interstate 94. Heading into Thursday, the probability of MUCAPE over 1000 J/Kg falls to less than 20 percent. Zonal H5 flow continues into Friday and the weekend, with a shortwave developing along H7 flow on Friday. This will bring our next chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday. With this system, instability looks a bit more favorable for the support of more organized storms across parts of the area. By Monday, MUCAPE probs greater than 1000 J/Kg increase to nearly 60 percent. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1115 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Skies will continue to clear from west to east this evening eventually giving way to VFR conditions. Isolated MVFR visibilities are possible due to smoke, but confidence is low in where this arises. Eventually, a front will push through the area, shifting winds to westerly then northwesterly by the afternoon. Wind gusts ahead of and behind the front could get between 25-35 knots by the mid to late afternoon. Winds will diminish after 00z, with gusts likely finishing by 03z at the latest. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Perroux DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...Perroux