419 FXUS63 KBIS 110010 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 710 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near surface smoke this afternoon and likely through tonight. - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will begin Wednesday, with the greatest chances for precipitation on Thursday (60 percent). Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 658 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Overall the inherited forecast was fine. Did opt to remove precip wording south as doubtful anything is reaching the ground with cloud bases at or above 10K ft AGL. Given latest sfc obs and satellite imagery, as well as model output, will go with widespread smoke for tonight across the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Currently a cold front is sweeping east through the state, located near the James River Valley. On the backside of the front, the wildfire smoke from the Canadian forest fires have mixed down to the surface. The main area for this has been the northwest where visibilities are down to 4 miles. Everywhere however is hazy with the scent of wildfire smoke. A surface high pressure is sitting near Saskatoon Canada. With the clockwise flow around the high, the smoke is lined up to stream into the state. Late tonight a weak little wave, in the otherwise zonal flow, will move across the Dakotas. This will lead to slight chances of showers Wednesday morning. Wednesday will also be cooler in the 70s as the thermal ridge get pushed east. This zonal flow should also keep most of the wildfire smoke in Canada. Heading into Thursday, a stronger and slower shortwave will move across the Dakotas with a weak Colorado Low. There is a 70 percent chance of showers and a few thunderstorms during the day and into Friday morning. No severe weather is expected as there is very low CAPE and temperatures in the lower 60s. Wednesday and Thursday will also be breezy from a tight pressure gradient as a low passes through South Dakota. The rest of the week through this weekend we will see multiple shortwaves moving in off the mountains in the Western CONUS. Sunday evening through Monday an Alberta Clipper will dive into the Dakotas, leading to more widespread chances of showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday looks like a possible severe weather day in the state as CAPE could be 1000 J/kg or more. However this is day 7 and things will change. The biggest failure mode for this is, its not a strong wave and temperatures are in the mid 70s with dewpoints only in the low 50s. Temperatures through the forecast will mainly be in the 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 658 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Wildfire smoke will result in MVFR visibility at all terminals tonight into Wednesday morning, Currently low VFR to MVFR vis north in the wildfire smoke, VFR south, with smoke projected to push south this evening and stay in place through much of Wednesday morning. Northerly winds will transition to more easterly as we go through the 00Z TAF period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...NH DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...NH