352 FXUS63 KFGF 022340 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 640 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Smoke impacts remain possible through this evening, with clearing expected tonight. && .UPDATE... Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 The frontal zone has pushed south and east with the main instability axis now outside our CWA. There are still some lingering showers behind the front but they are on track to move east through the evening hours. Winds are still gusting 40-45 mph in the far southern RRV where the strongest CAA is still helping mixing higher winds to the surface. These winds should show a downward trend within the next 1-2hr due to the loss of daytime mixing, the region of tighter gradient/CAA pushing out of the valley, and flow shifting from the favorable northerly direction to the west in the valley (same trends being observed farther north). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 107 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 ...Synopsis... Height falls through the day today in addition to strong frontogenesis will facilitate scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area. In addition to synoptic ascent, a surface cold front will push southeastward through the afternoon, bringing with it the chance for severe thunderstorms. Moisture profiles and transport are fairly meager for our CWA, so the likelihood of sustained severe convection is much lower. Profiles generally favor more downburst winds thanks to the drier thermal profiles, as indicated by DCAPE approaching and exceeding 1000 across west-central Minnesota. 0-3km shear is also solid exceeding 30 knots, so damaging wind gusts look to be the biggest hazard today. Hail production is also possible with effective bulk shear values generally between 20-30 knots, but sustained supercells appear unlikely at this point thanks to largely front parallel shear and strong forcing likely creating multicellular convection. With the multicellular convection and front parallel shear, there does exist a scenario for longer residence time of precipitation, hence the 90th percentile for total rainfall exceeding 1.5 inches in west- central Minnesota. The most likely timeframe for severe convection is as early as 2 PM, but the most likely outcome is for severe convection between 3 and 6 PM, leaving our area shortly thereafter. As the front exits our area and severe convection with it, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will linger into Tuesday morning before ending. With this system exiting, there is a solid signal for smoke to also diminish at the surface with it. The upper flow pattern is fairly quiet thereafter with limited flow aloft. There is a signal for another cold front late this weekend into early next week with the potential for severe thunderstorms, however predictability is too low at this time to ascertain specific threats. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Smoke continues to reduce visibility to the 2-6sm range this evening but is clearing as the cold front pushes east and winds shift to the west. As smoke clears and rain showers exit this evening VFR conditions should prevail. Winds are also starting decreasing as the strongest gradient/mixing is transitioning south and east. Winds should shift from the north to west then southwest through the morning before daytime mixing helps winds increase from the northwest 12-15kt Tuesday (gusts around 20kt mainly in ND). && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJR DISCUSSION...Perroux AVIATION...DJR