766 FXUS63 KBIS 050902 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 402 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to return today, and remain isolated in the southeast on Friday. The chance for severe weather is low. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to be found on Saturday. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is possible in southeastern and eastern North Dakota. - Near to slightly below average temperatures favored through Monday, with a slight warmup expected on Saturday. - Breezy to windy conditions this weekend into Monday, especially on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 402 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Broad trough pattern to remain today, with a secondary wave moving across the region today through tonight. The result will be another day of isolated to scattered thunderstorms and near to slightly below normal temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Overall this wave looks to track to our south, thus the better chances for showers and thunderstorms today will be in the southern half of ND. Instability and shear look similar to yesterday to perhaps slightly lower. Thus the chances for severe weather are low today, with perhaps some small hail and gusty winds possible. Of note are increased pwats with this system, perhaps providing for some moderate to brief heavy rain potential with any thunderstorms that may develop. Light winds will become east southeast today. Wildfire smoke will remain aloft today, bringing hazy skies with limited impacts at the surface expected. Tonight, the mentioned wave lingers precipitation chances in the southeast through tonight. Meanwhile a ridge of high pressure tries to clear skies behind this wave and diminishes winds. These conditions could provide for some patchy fog across much of the CWA. Lows tonight are expected to be in the 40s. Friday looks to be a transition day between weather systems. Southerly flow at the surface could slightly warm temperatures into the 70s. Some weak instability in the afternoon could bring an isolated shower or thunderstorm, mainly in the east. West northwest flow aloft could provide for some smoke aloft again on Friday, with limited impacts expected at the surface. Mainly dry conditions and warmer lows in the 50s can then be expected for Friday night. Surface trough will push across the state on Saturday with a cold front trailing it. Ahead of this cold front will be breezy southerly winds and warming temperatures, with widespread highs in the 70s. The mentioned cold front will then bring chances for showers and thunderstorms along with breezy northwest winds as it moves through. Timing of this front will be key to severe weather potential as the eastern half of the state could see CAPE over 1000 J/KG in the afternoon and shear of 40 knots or more. As a result isolated strong to severe storms will be possible on Saturday. SPC now has a Day 3 Marginal Risk for much of eastern ND to account for this. Strong wind gusts will likely be the main threat, with large hail also possible. Showers and thunderstorms push eastward Saturday night with breezy northwest winds linger. Look for lows back in the 40s with some 50s. Cutoff low could then linger across the area on Sunday. This may bring some showers to the east, while the gradient from this low brings windy conditions. ECMWF EFI values for wind gusts continues to increase for Sunday, indicating at least advisory level winds are possible. Cooler temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s can also be expected for Sunday. Shower activity could then become more isolated Sunday night, with lows again in the 40s, and breezy northwest winds continuing. Clusters indicate ridging to build back into the region early to mid next week. This could provide for warming temperatures with NBM forecasting highs back into the 80s, with NBM spreads even warm. There is a wide temperature spread though as the amplitude of this ridge is still uncertain. A flattening of this ridge around mid week could return chances for showers and thunderstorms. NBM currently has slight to chance PoPs to account for this potential. Perhaps some breezy winds linger into Monday before diminishing and becoming southerly on Tuesday. Depending how the breaking down of the ridge plays out, perhaps some breezy southerly winds could be found mid next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Overall look for VFR conditions through the forecast period. A few showers may linger tonight across the south and east tonight, although confidence was not high enough to include in TAFs at this time. More showers and thunderstorms could return Thursday into Thursday evening. PROB30 groups were used for areas with at least a chance of precipitation. Overall VFR conditions can be expected, with perhaps some brief MVFR conditions with any showers or thunderstorms. Clouds should go on a diminishing trend Thursday night. A light southerly wind will be found during the day Thursday, becoming light and variable Thursday night. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Anglin AVIATION...Anglin