269
FXUS63 KFGF 221219
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
719 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday
  afternoon and evening. Primary hazards will be damaging wind
  gusts to 70 mph, large hail up to 2 inches, and isolated
  tornadoes.

- Heat index values approach or exceed 100 degrees in the
  southern Red River Valley and portions of west central
  Minnesota. Heat related impacts are expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 720 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Watching thunderstorm development this morning in southeastern
North Dakota. A few elevated stronger storms have formed thus
far in response to steep mid level lapse rates and an
approaching H7 shortwave. These storms will continue to lift
north and east through the mid morning and could become severe
as temperatures warm and instability increases near the surface.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

...Synopsis...

H5 ridging continues to work eastward into the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes region today. Shortwave activity will traverse the
western flank of the ridge ahead of a cold front that moves into
eastern North Dakota this afternoon. Dew points ahead of the front
are in the low to mid 70s, which will combine with afternoon highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s to allow heat index values upwards of
100 degrees. The cold front will bring a chance for showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with severe thunderstorms
possible. Much cooler temperatures return on Monday, along with
lower humidity. Look for minimal rain chances Monday and Tuesday,
with increased chances for showers and thunderstorms starting
Wednesday afternoon.

...Severe Thunderstorm Risk this Afternoon and Evening...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening along and ahead of a cold front. Development could begin as
early as late morning as an H7 shortwave moves along the upper flow
from southwest to northeast. The resultant theta-e gradient could
provide an axis of development for supercells or hybrid clusters by
midday. Soundings support SBCAPE upwards of 4000 J/Kg, along with 25
to 50 knots of low to mid level shear. This, along with a relatively
deep effective inflow layer, will support a mention of isolated
tornado potential, along with large hail upwards of 2 inches in
association with any supercells that develop. As convection goes
upscale during the afternoon and evening, high DCAPE of 1300 to 1700
J/Kg will support damaging wind gusts of 70 mph or higher. CAMs do
not show great agreement in where initiation takes place; however,
there is some consensus on the central Red River Valley and points
east.

...Heat Impacts Expected This Weekend...

A combination of high dew points in the 70s and afternoon
temperatures in the 90s, will provide an environment supportive
of heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees. Best chances will
be in the southern Red River Valley and portions of west central
Minnesota. A heat advisory remains in effect through late this
afternoon, with temperatures falling substantially following
today`s cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

IFR conditions prevail at KDVL this morning with MVFR to VFR
ceilings elsewhere. Look for isolated to scattered thunderstorms
through most of the morning and into the afternoon hours. Storms
could become severe starting around mid morning with the threat
of damaging wind gusts, hail, and tornadoes. This threat will
persist through the late afternoon as a cold front moves across
the area. Winds shift to the northwest from west to east, with
gusts up to 25 knots following the cold front passage.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ052-053.
MN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for MNZ006-009-016-017-022>024-027-028.
     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ029>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch