309 FXUS63 KFGF 050846 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 346 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - level 1 out of 5 risk of severe storms Saturday afternoon and early evening over eastern North Dakota and parts of northwest Minnesota. Wind gusts 60 mph main threat. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 ...Synopsis... Satellite shows persistent 700 mb moisture and clouds across ND into northwest MN...roughly from near Dickinson to Grand Forks to Thief River Falls to Bemidji-Baudette. From north of Jamestown into NW MN an area of mid level showers with trace to 0.02 inch amounts continue to move east-northeast so did add pops into the fcst thru the early morning for this activity. Today it self looks variably cloudy, but in general areas of mid clouds and spotty showers will be the rule. There are a few showers (sprinkles) in southeast Sask and southwest MB as well this morning. 700 mb wave that is forecast to move into northeast SD tonight seems weaker than 24 hours ago and thus less moisture. But still would appear to be a focus for a high chance for light rain showers into SE ND/WC MN late this aftn into tonight. Rest of the area this aftn/eve may see a few light showers. So have a pretty broad pop area. Friday will see chances for a few showers remain in SE ND into WC MN as a band of mid level moisture remains across the area. Sunnier north of this band though on Friday. Could be mid to late aftn shower/t-storm but would appear instability wise that zone is north of the border. So left it dry north of Fargo- Bemidji. ...Marginal risk of severe storms Saturday aftn/early eve... Next stronger 500 mb wave will move southeast from northwest Canada and into Saskatchewan Saturday. On the backside of this 500 mb low will be a core of 60-70 kt mid level winds which will spread into E ND by 00z Sunday. Cold front at that time will be moving thru the RRV and NW MN and combined with height falls at 500 mb and 30-35 kt bulk shear near the front...SPC did put the area of E ND/NW MN in a marginal risk for sever storms Saturday aftn/early eve. MUCAPE not great...mostly 800 j/kg or so but sufficient mid level winds coming on the south side of upper low will support potential for severe level wind gusts. Forecast soundings off the GFS near Grand Forks shows a dry layer up to about 800 mb and fairly steep lapse rates from the sfc and 850 mb up thru 500 mb as cooler air aloft moves in. So a period of potentially severe storms seem reasonable at this time. Upper low will drop into northern MN by 12z Monday and after a drying out period overnight Sat night into Sunday morning likely to see cooler air and showers drop back south into much of the area Sun aftn into Monday. Highest chances NW MN. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1020 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 VFR throughout the TAF period. The biggest question that remains is how widespread pop up thunderstorms develop Thursday afternoon. Kept any mention of pop up thunderstorms out of the TAFs currently, but they may need to be added in future TAF sets as storms areal coverage and placement becomes more apparent. Winds will mostly be light and variable throughout the TAF period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Rafferty