123 FXUS63 KBIS 050545 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1245 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near-daily isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. The probability for severe weather is low. - Near to slightly below average temperatures favored through Monday. - Breezy to windy conditions this weekend, especially on Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Limited updates needed tonight. A few showers continue to be found across southern and eastern portions, and may linger through the night. Areas with clearing skies, mainly in the north, could see cool overnight lows in the low to mid 40s and perhaps some patchy fog. Overall the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 944 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Convection from earlier today continues to diminish as it moves through northeast to south central North Dakota this evening. The lingering showers over south central North Dakota have been sustained by an outflow boundary associated with a cluster of storms that had propagated between Highway 200 and Interstate 94. As recently as 9 PM CDT, that dying cluster of convection was still producing wind gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range from near Carrington to Jamestown. But in the half hour since, a significant downward trend in maximum gusts has been observed. A few light showers could continue to percolate across south central North Dakota into the overnight hours, but thunderstorms are no longer expected. UPDATE Issued at 649 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 At 630 PM CDT, the main corridor of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms was located from near Harvey to Fort Yates, moving east at about 30 mph. A 48 mph wind gust was reported as this cluster of storms passed around Bismarck. Otherwise, maximum gusts around 40 mph have been more common. Erratic wind gusts will remain the primary hazard with this line, but the strongest embedded updrafts could also produce some small hail. Both coverage and intensity of convection should diminish later this evening with the loss of diurnal heating. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Currently a upper level trough, around a big low pressure system way up in Canada, is present over the Northern Plains. At the surface, a trough is over eastern Montana and western North Dakota. Diurnal and cyclonically driven cumulus clouds are popcorning all over the state. With these, showers and isolated thunderstorms are forming, and moving east. There is forecast to be less than 1000 J/kg of CAPE today so severe weather is not expected. The wildfire smoke is still present high in the atmosphere and not expected to mix down. Thursday will be more of the same with chances of showers and maybe a thunderstorm. This time mainly just central and south. A shortwave embedded in the cyclonic flow will push through South Dakota. Again, severe weather is not expected. During this time a ridge will be building in the Western CONUS. Friday another small shortwave in the flow will move through, leading to chances of showers and thunderstorms in the southeast half of the state. Saturday and Sunday will be windy as a low pressure system dives out of Canada. Between a cold front and the pressure gradient forces, strong winds will occur. Saturday will mostly be windy in the northwest and north, Sunday will be widespread and possibly needing a Wind Advisory. Temperatures this weekend will be near 80. Next week, a flat ridge sets up with multiple shortwaves embedded off the Montana mountains. More chances for showers and thunderstorms with these, especially Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures could warm to the mid 80s by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Overall look for VFR conditions through the forecast period. A few showers may linger tonight across the south and east tonight, although confidence was not high enough to include in TAFs at this time. More showers and thunderstorms could return Thursday into Thursday evening. PROB30 groups were used for areas with at least a chance of precipitation. Overall VFR conditions can be expected, with perhaps some brief MVFR conditions with any showers or thunderstorms. Clouds should go on a diminishing trend Thursday night. A light southerly wind will be found during the day Thursday, becoming light and variable Thursday night. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Anglin DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...Anglin