321 FXUS62 KRAH 132130 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion...Updated. National Weather Service Raleigh NC 430 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A dry Arctic cold front will cross the region this evening, bringing a cold high pressure area and frigid temperatures during the middle of the week. Another high will settle over the Gulf states late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 430 PM Monday... Patchy Black Ice tonight and Tuesday morning possible from the Triad to Roxboro. We will issue a Special Weather Statement for Forsyth... Guilford... Alamance... Orange... and Person Counties for a refreeze and patchy black ice development. In talking to partners, there is still a fair amount of melting ongoing with plenty of opportunity of refreeze in shady areas and the development of black ice across some of the area roads. Be extra cautious across the Triad and northern NC, mainly along and north of I-85 through noon Tuesday. A dry Arctic cold front currently analyzed over eastern TN/KY will move through the region from NW to SE this evening, as the surface high builds east into the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Dew points behind the front will begin to drop, reaching the mid-teens to mid-20s by early Tuesday morning. While winds don`t look completely calm tonight given the frontal passage and high displaced to our west, there will still be low dew points, clear skies, and relatively light winds. This will help low temperatures reach the lower-20s north and west, with mid-to-upper-20s south and east. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 111 PM Monday... Prev AFD still valid - no need for changes: Dry and rather cold. The polar upper low over the St Lawrence early Tue will shift quickly E across New England to the Canadian Maritimes through Tue night, taking a mid level westerly speed max and dry surface cold front ESE through central NC. Given the dry trajectory and with no opportunity for this system to pick up any moisture as we remain cut off from any Gulf and Atlantic source inflow, cloudiness should be very limited, with no pops. The core of the incoming frigid surface high will drop S through the Midwest and central Miss Valley into the W Ohio Valley through Tue night, and it still appears likely that the mountains will delay the arrival of the coldest and most dense air until after sunset, thus still expect highs to be on the milder side of statistical guidance, yet still cool for this time of year with low level thicknesses around 20 m below normal. Highs will range from around 40 at the VA border to near 50 at the SC border. Colder air will pour in from the N Tue evening and night, with plummeting dewpoints, supporting much below normal lows of 14 to 23. Latest guidance suggests that surface winds could be a bit lighter than earlier expected Tue evening and night, and as such the wind chill may not be quite as low as anticipated, although still in the upper single digits to mid teens. Will continue to monitor forecast temps and winds for the need for a Cold Weather Advisory Tue night into early Wed. -GIH && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 126 PM Monday... Upper pattern: We`ll see wnwly flow aloft over central NC Wednesday as an upper wave moves off the eastern seaboard. Another lobe of vorticity and associated short-wave will dive into the deep south Thursday into Friday. This will help to shunt anomalous moisture associated with a Gulf of Mexico system to our south keeping central NC dry through early Friday. Beyond early Friday, models suggest a persistent long-wave trough developing along the eastern seaboard, with a series of embedded short-waves trekking across the US through the end of the extended period. Temperatures: The airmass will be coldest on Wednesday, with highs only reaching the upper 30s. Temperatures will then moderate back into the lower to mid 50s by Friday and continuing into the weekend. A potential cool down is then possible next Monday. Precipitation: Dry weather is expected Wednesday through much of Friday. By Friday night/early Saturday, ensembles continue to suggest increasing chances for precipitation ahead of sfc cold front. There`s still some timing uncertainty, but in all, it does appear most guidance suggests a few waves of precipitation will be possible through much of the weekend. However, it continues to appear too warm for any PTYPE concerns at this point. After a rainy weekend, things should dry out by Monday behind an exiting cold front. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1240 PM Monday... VFR conditions will prevail across central NC through the next 24 hours. Weak low pressure over the NE Gulf of Mexico continues to spread a broken deck of mid and high clouds across the south and east (including FAY and RWI), but this will continue to exit the region over the next few hours with clear skies behind it. Light westerly winds today will shift northwesterly behind a cold front this evening, increasing tomorrow morning and potentially gusting to 15-20 kts at times. Outlook: Dry VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Friday. The next chance of rain and sub-VFR conditions comes with a cold front late Friday night into Saturday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Danco NEAR TERM...Badgett/Danco SHORT TERM...np/Hartfield LONG TERM...Luchetti AVIATION...Danco