969
FXUS62 KRAH 271033
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
633 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Highly anomalous and strong high pressure aloft will persist over
the Southeast through midweek and result in a prolonged heat wave
over the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 228 AM Sunday...

* Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in effect for all of
  central NC through Monday evening.
* Highs upper 90s to lower 100s for much of the area with heat index
  values 105 to 115, highest from Raleigh south and east. Little
  relief tonight with lows in the mid-upr 70s.
* The upper ridge center over the SE will gradually drift wwd today
  which will allow the plume of higher pwat air and storm track to
  our north to drift swd. Thunderstorms this afternoon over central
  VA will move down the east side of the ridge and will cross the NE
  quadrant of NC this evening, including our zones primarily to the
  northeast of RDU.
* Given the heat and high dwpts and resulting instability, there`s a
  level 1-of-5 risk for svr storms with the aforementioned tstm
  activity this evening.  See SWODY1 for more details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 228 AM Sunday...

* The upper ridge will continue to retrograde wwd becoming centered
  just west of the Lower Miss Valley by 00Z Tue.
* With NW flow over our region, a s/w trough will drop down the east
  side of the ridge and cross our area late in the day.  As such
  look for increased afternoon/evening shower/tstm coverage compared
  to today, and coverage that extends farther west across our CWA.
* While not currently outlooked, isold damaging wind gusts can`t be
  ruled out with any convection given the ongoing heat, humidity and
  instability.
* Speaking of ongoing heat, that will still be the primary weather
  story and hazard, although with increased cloud and shower/tstm
  coverage, afternoon temps may end up being a couple deg cooler
  than recent days. Nevertheless, heat indices will still warrant
  heat advisories and warnings as currently in effect.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 125 AM Sunday...

* Oppressive long-duration heat wave continues through mid-to-late
  week. Temperatures expected to return to near or below average
  Friday and Saturday.

* Isolated thunderstorm chances Tuesday, Wednesday, and Saturday,
  with increased chances on Thursday and Friday with a passing cold
  front.

The mid-level ridge and surface high pressure which has been
dominating the weather pattern will continue to move westward to our
south over the work week. This will allow temperatures to remain
high, however maybe a degree or two lower than previous days. This
will allow high temperatures to remain about 5-10 degrees above
normal Tuesday through Thursday. Maximum air temperatures will
generally be in the mid-to-upper 90s each day Tuesday through
Thursday, with maximum heat indices in the lower 100s in the west,
reaching upper 100s to around 112 in central and eastern portions of
the CWA. Thus, additional heat headlines will likely be needed
through Thursday. Each afternoon, isolated rain chances will be
possible as areas of increased vorticity look to move over the
region. Thursday and Friday, rain chances increase ahead of a cold
front that looks to pass through the region sometime Thursday night
or Friday. Rain chances linger into Saturday as well as the front
lingers to our south. The frontal passage will bring an end to the
oppressive heat, with temperatures returning to near or below normal
by Friday and Saturday. Maximum temperatures look to dip into the
low-to-mid 80s by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 633 AM Sunday...

Through 12Z Monday:  Flt conditions will primarily remain VFR
through the TAF period with the exception of brief lowering of
cigs/vsby associated with widely scattered shower/tstms activity.
The best chance for this activity will be at or invof KRDU and KRWI
between 27/23Z and 28/04Z.  Winds aob 10kt except invof tstms
activity where brief gusts up to 30kt are possible.

Outlook: A typical summertime pattern will prevail through early
week featuring isolated to widely scattered diurnally driven showers
and storms each day. Generally VFR, otherwise.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Abnormally hot and humid weather starting today and persist well
into next week and will result in a prolonged period of dangerous
heat during the daytime with little overnight relief. High
temperature records will be difficult to break with records in the
low/mid 100s, but the best chance may be Saturday. Long-duration
abnormally warm overnight lows will have a chance to break daily
records through the weekend and likely persist well into next week.


Record High Temperatures:

July 27 (Sunday):
KGSO: 104/1914
KRDU: 104/1940
KFAY: 106/1940

July 28 (Monday):
KGSO: 100/1952
KRDU: 104/1952
KFAY: 105/1940

July 29 (Tuesday):
KGSO: 101/1952
KRDU: 104/2011
KFAY: 103/2011

July 30 (Wednesday):
KGSO: 100/1915
KRDU: 101/1953
KFAY: 105/2011


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 27 (Sunday):
KGSO: 76/2005
KRDU: 78/1940
KFAY: 79/2016

July 28 (Monday):
KGSO: 74/2023
KRDU: 77/2023
KFAY: 79/2016

July 29 (Tuesday):
KGSO: 75/2010
KRDU: 78/2023
KFAY: 79/2002

July 30 (Wednesday):
KGSO: 77/2011
KRDU: 78/1931
KFAY: 79/2002

July 31 (Thursday):
KGSO: 75/1917
KRDU: 77/2020
KFAY: 78/1941

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ007>009-021-022-038-
039-073-074-083.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ010-011-
023>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Swiggett
NEAR TERM...np
SHORT TERM...np
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...np
CLIMATE...RAH