969 FXUS62 KRAH 271033 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 633 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Highly anomalous and strong high pressure aloft will persist over the Southeast through midweek and result in a prolonged heat wave over the region. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 228 AM Sunday... * Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in effect for all of central NC through Monday evening. * Highs upper 90s to lower 100s for much of the area with heat index values 105 to 115, highest from Raleigh south and east. Little relief tonight with lows in the mid-upr 70s. * The upper ridge center over the SE will gradually drift wwd today which will allow the plume of higher pwat air and storm track to our north to drift swd. Thunderstorms this afternoon over central VA will move down the east side of the ridge and will cross the NE quadrant of NC this evening, including our zones primarily to the northeast of RDU. * Given the heat and high dwpts and resulting instability, there`s a level 1-of-5 risk for svr storms with the aforementioned tstm activity this evening. See SWODY1 for more details. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 228 AM Sunday... * The upper ridge will continue to retrograde wwd becoming centered just west of the Lower Miss Valley by 00Z Tue. * With NW flow over our region, a s/w trough will drop down the east side of the ridge and cross our area late in the day. As such look for increased afternoon/evening shower/tstm coverage compared to today, and coverage that extends farther west across our CWA. * While not currently outlooked, isold damaging wind gusts can`t be ruled out with any convection given the ongoing heat, humidity and instability. * Speaking of ongoing heat, that will still be the primary weather story and hazard, although with increased cloud and shower/tstm coverage, afternoon temps may end up being a couple deg cooler than recent days. Nevertheless, heat indices will still warrant heat advisories and warnings as currently in effect. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 125 AM Sunday... * Oppressive long-duration heat wave continues through mid-to-late week. Temperatures expected to return to near or below average Friday and Saturday. * Isolated thunderstorm chances Tuesday, Wednesday, and Saturday, with increased chances on Thursday and Friday with a passing cold front. The mid-level ridge and surface high pressure which has been dominating the weather pattern will continue to move westward to our south over the work week. This will allow temperatures to remain high, however maybe a degree or two lower than previous days. This will allow high temperatures to remain about 5-10 degrees above normal Tuesday through Thursday. Maximum air temperatures will generally be in the mid-to-upper 90s each day Tuesday through Thursday, with maximum heat indices in the lower 100s in the west, reaching upper 100s to around 112 in central and eastern portions of the CWA. Thus, additional heat headlines will likely be needed through Thursday. Each afternoon, isolated rain chances will be possible as areas of increased vorticity look to move over the region. Thursday and Friday, rain chances increase ahead of a cold front that looks to pass through the region sometime Thursday night or Friday. Rain chances linger into Saturday as well as the front lingers to our south. The frontal passage will bring an end to the oppressive heat, with temperatures returning to near or below normal by Friday and Saturday. Maximum temperatures look to dip into the low-to-mid 80s by Saturday afternoon. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 633 AM Sunday... Through 12Z Monday: Flt conditions will primarily remain VFR through the TAF period with the exception of brief lowering of cigs/vsby associated with widely scattered shower/tstms activity. The best chance for this activity will be at or invof KRDU and KRWI between 27/23Z and 28/04Z. Winds aob 10kt except invof tstms activity where brief gusts up to 30kt are possible. Outlook: A typical summertime pattern will prevail through early week featuring isolated to widely scattered diurnally driven showers and storms each day. Generally VFR, otherwise. && .CLIMATE... Abnormally hot and humid weather starting today and persist well into next week and will result in a prolonged period of dangerous heat during the daytime with little overnight relief. High temperature records will be difficult to break with records in the low/mid 100s, but the best chance may be Saturday. Long-duration abnormally warm overnight lows will have a chance to break daily records through the weekend and likely persist well into next week. Record High Temperatures: July 27 (Sunday): KGSO: 104/1914 KRDU: 104/1940 KFAY: 106/1940 July 28 (Monday): KGSO: 100/1952 KRDU: 104/1952 KFAY: 105/1940 July 29 (Tuesday): KGSO: 101/1952 KRDU: 104/2011 KFAY: 103/2011 July 30 (Wednesday): KGSO: 100/1915 KRDU: 101/1953 KFAY: 105/2011 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 27 (Sunday): KGSO: 76/2005 KRDU: 78/1940 KFAY: 79/2016 July 28 (Monday): KGSO: 74/2023 KRDU: 77/2023 KFAY: 79/2016 July 29 (Tuesday): KGSO: 75/2010 KRDU: 78/2023 KFAY: 79/2002 July 30 (Wednesday): KGSO: 77/2011 KRDU: 78/1931 KFAY: 79/2002 July 31 (Thursday): KGSO: 75/1917 KRDU: 77/2020 KFAY: 78/1941 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ007>009-021-022-038- 039-073-074-083. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ010-011- 023>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Swiggett NEAR TERM...np SHORT TERM...np LONG TERM...Helock AVIATION...np CLIMATE...RAH