731 FXUS62 KRAH 021959 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 359 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will build across and offshore the Middle Atlantic through Tuesday, then continue to extend westward into NC through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 355 PM Monday... *Hazy, dry, and mild/cool Anchored by a cyclone along the QC/NL border, a high amplitude trough over the ern US will progress ewd and offshore this period, while an upstream ridge will migrate across the OH Valley, Great Lakes, and ON/QC. Rising heights aloft will result over cntl NC. At the surface, 1020 mb Canadian high pressure centered over WV this afternoon will drift only slowly sewd across the Virginias through 12Z Tue, with associated dry and seasonably mild/cool nly flow directed over cntl NC this afternoon, then calm tonight. Canadian dryness will favor strong radiational cooling and lows mostly in the 50s tonight, except probably upr 40s in typically cooler Piedmont locations (ie. TDF and TTA). Although not initialized well by recent HRRR smoke simulations, visible satellite data depict a relatively thick and concentrated area of smoke now pivoting across VA and NC. As such, sky conditions will remain hazy; and another reddish sunset appears likely from the Coastal Plain to the coast of NC. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM Monday... Synoptic mid/upr-level ridging will amplify from the Middle Atlantic through ern Canada. Underlying, Canadian surface high pressure centered initially near the Outer Banks will continue to modify and drift offshore, while the associated ridge will extend wwd across NC. The airmass over cntl NC will consequently modify, with high and low temperatures 5-10 F warmer/milder than those of Mon (in the 80s and mid 50s-lwr 60s F) and associated RH 5-10 percent higher (30- 40%). Despite deep subsidence and associated generally cloud-free skies, periods of haze from Canadian wildfire smoke may persist. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 335 PM Monday... Upper pattern through the extended: An anomalous mid-upper ridge will amplify along the eastern seaboard Wednesday. An upper low centered over the Gulf will weaken into an open wave that gradually lifts north along the southeast coast Thursday through Friday. Behind this departing upper wave, a strong long-wave trough will lift across the eastern seaboard Saturday and linger through Monday. Wednesday: Sfc high pressure will continue to anchor offshore on Wednesday promoting another dry day. Flow will turn more esely in the afternoon, which will allow temps to relatively warm compared to Monday/Tuesday with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows in the lower 60s is expected. Thursday through Friday: Mid-level vorticity associated with the upper wave mentioned above (from the Gulf) will stream northward on Thursday. An associated plume of low-level anomalous moisture and a sfc wave/low will slowly migrate up the GA/SC coastline. This feature is expected to be non-tropical at onset. However, the NHC mentions that if it stays offshore, it could develop subtropical or tropical characteristics by Friday. Regardless, this feature may promote increasing chances of rain particularly on Friday into Saturday (highest chances in the southeast). Mid to upper 80s are are expected each day. Saturday through Monday: There`s some details to be flushed out, but generally speaking, expect hot and wet conditions to persist through this period. The aforementioned upper trough will lift across the east coast and linger through Monday. As such, periods of showers and storms are possible during this period. Machine learning outlooks are suggesting Saturday could also feature possible severe weather. Will provide updates as details get clearer. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s look possible at this point as well. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 145 PM Monday... Canadian high pressure and associated dry air will favor a high probability of VFR conditions over cntl NC through Tue. There may, however, be patches of very shallow radiation fog and/or stratus mainly south of FAY, over nern SC and sern NC, Tue morning. Skies will otherwise be mainly clear but hazy, owing to bands of Canadian wildfire smoke that will drift overhead the next couple of days. Outlook: An area of low pressure is forecast to form and track along the coast of the Carolinas later this week, during which time showers/storms and flight restrictions will be possible over the ern half of NC, including primarily at RWI and FAY on Fri. A lee/pre- frontal surface trough may then focus scattered showers/storms over cntl NC Sat afternoon-evening. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...Luchetti AVIATION...MWS