792
FXUS62 KRAH 101828
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
228 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Disturbances in unseasonably moist, southwesterly flow aloft will
interact with a surface trough over the Middle Atlantic and
Carolinas through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 228 PM Thursday...

* A Flood Watch is in effect today for all of central NC through at
  least 2 AM then only the Coastal Plain until 5 AM.

* Weakly organized storms will be capable of torrential rainfall,
  which may result in scattered flash flooding, as well as strong to
  locally severe wind gusts.

The low clouds held on a bit longer than expected today, which has
delayed convective initiation at bit over much of central NC. Highs
today should still top out in the mid to upper 80s, with some
isolated 90s possible. Lows tonight in the upper 60s to low 70s
expected. Aloft, a newd lifting mid-level disturbance will continue
newd across ern NC through this afternoon. Meanwhile, the s/w
approaching from the nw will dive sewd from the mtns to the coast
late this aft through early/mid tonight. While some isolated to
scattered showers/storms are expected over portions of the Coastal
Plain with the leading disturbance, it appears the better chances
and coverage of convection will be with the s/w moving in from the
NW. PWATs are still 2.0-2.2 inches across the area, with MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/Kg, highest in the east. Weak steering winds and deep-
layer shear < 20kts will result in slow storm motions of efficient
heavy rain producing storms, only propagating along the development
of common cold pools and storm scale MCVs. The primary threats with
the convection are flooding and damaging winds. The highest rainfall
totals still expected to be across the southern Piedmont and
Sandhills, however with the significant rainfall that has occurred
over the majority of the Piedmont, it will take less rain to cause
flooding in the hardest hit areas. Similarly, while damaging wind
gusts are possible, with the saturated ground some trees could be
blown down more easily.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1225 PM Thursday...

With the upper trough shifting farther to the east, there should be
a decrease in showers and thunderstorms compared to the last few
days. Unlike recent days, the highest chance for precipitation
should be across eastern counties instead of western counties.
Considering the two rounds of heavy rain in the last week, one from
Chantal on Sunday and a second round on Wednesday, the entire
forecast area remains under a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for
excessive rainfall, even though all locations have not previously
received heavy rainfall this week. In addition, the entire forecast
area is also under a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe
thunderstorms, with damaging winds as the primary threat - this
should occur primarily during the late afternoon in the evening.
Expect seasonable temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s and lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Thursday...

The extended forecast doesn`t feature much in the way of synoptic
features, which means there won`t be much variation in the forecast
through the period. While a cold front is forecast to be along the
west side of the Appalachians on Monday and approaching central
North Carolina by Tuesday, the level of confidence this many days
out in a front making it through the region is low. Monday is the
day with the greatest coverage of 60% chances of showers/storms,
although every day in the extended forecast ranges from 40 to 60%
chances for precipitation somewhere across the forecast area. As is
typical with North Carolina summertime convection, the most likely
times for precipitation are the afternoon and evening, with minimal
coverage during the overnight and morning hours. The highs/lows will
stay similar, near 90 and 70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...

24 hour TAF period: Fairly high confidence showers and storms will
develop, however exactly when and where are of lesser confidence.
All terminals could be impacted by storms in the first 6-9 hours of
the TAF period, with chances decreasing between 10 PM and midnight,
lingering longest near KFAY. Coverage should be more isolated to
scattered early, becoming more numerous this evening. The usual
restrictions and strong winds expected with the storms.

Tonight, in the wake of convection sub-VFR cigs will again
materialize, with MVFR developing as early as 04-06Z, lowering
quickly to IFR/LIFR by 09Z and remaining there through daybreak.
Some slow improvement is expected after sunrise, with a return to
VFR expected by noon in most places.

Outlook: Some diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms will be
possible again Friday, however some hi-res guidance shows mainly
isolated to widely scattered coverage, with highest chances at the
Triad terminals. Coverage of diurnal convection should be more
scattered Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. In addition, considering the
early morning fog/stratus that occurred this morning, early morning
restrictions could continue through the next several days with
minimal change in air mass expected.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ007>010-021>025-
038>040-073>076-083>086.
Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ011-026>028-041>043-
077-078-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KC/Swiggett
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...KC/MWS