567 FXUS62 KRAH 080143 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 940 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A slow-moving cold front will push southeast through the region tonight. Chilly high pressure will bring much colder air and a threat for nighttime frost and freeze conditions through mid week. Another cold front will approach Thursday, with the next chance of showers late Thursday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 940 PM Monday... The threat of severe storms has ended in central NC, as the last band of warm sector convection is shifting E out of the central Coastal Plain, with quickly increasing CINH over the area. The cold front is clearly seen on radar bisecting the CWA, just to the SE of the Triangle, moving steadily to the SE. The thick multilayered clouds and widespread rain will persist, however, until the mid level shortwave trough (still just to our W, across E TN into NW GA and NE AL) shifts ENE through our area in the next several hours. Post frontal CAA will accompany the WNW-ESE clearing overnight, and we`re on track to reach lows in the low 40s to low 50s. -GIH Earlier discussion from 330 PM: A vigorous upper trough and attendant wavy cold front will move through the area through this evening and tonight. Anomalously moist PWATS of 1.7-1.9"(falls outside/above the NAEFS 3-week centered climatology dating back to 1979)into the area will set the stage for multiple rounds of showers and storms within a slow eastward moving band of convection. The convection/rain is expected to exit the eastern/coastal plain zones between 06 to 08z. The lead pre-frontal band of convection finally made it into eastern/southeastern portions of the forecast area, where surface temperatures have warmed into the low-mid 80s with 64-70 F dewpoints. The resultant 1000-1500 J/Kg of SBCape has allowed some bowing segments to develop within the line, with 50-56kts causing some damage over the eastern Sandhills. This lead band will exit the area within the next hour. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to re-develop through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. However, rain cooled temperatures in the mid 60s will likely thwart any secondary threat. Will have to monitor and update as needed. Expected storm total rainfall amounts of 1-2", with localized higher amounts of 2-3" possible, will bring some much needed widespread rain to the abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions encompassing much of central NC. Flooding threat will be very localized/isolated, likely limited to poor drainage/urban environments. In terms of rivers, forecast and ensemble guidance indicate that main-stream rivers should stay below flood guidance, with a few forecast points, approaching actions stage, with a worst- scenario of cresting just above minor flood stage. Temperatures: CAA will set in tonight with lows much cooler compared to the 3-4 day span of record warm nights. Lows ranging from upper 30s/near 40 NW to upper 40s/near 50 SE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Monday... -Frost/freeze conditions likely Tuesday night. A dry reinforcing cold front will move across the region during the afternoon and evening as Canadian surface high pressure builds over the area Tuesday night. After days of record warmth, the cP airmass building into the area will definitely bring a drastic change and shock to many Carolinians. Highs ranging from mid 50s north, to lower 60s south. The primary concern is the Freeze potential Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. The center of the surface high settles into an ideal position by daybreak Wednesday, with winds likely decoupling across the northern half of the forecast area. Lows are expected to range from upper 20s to lower 30s across the northern two-thirds of the forecast area, and mid 30s across the southern tier. Some of the colder locations could bottom out into the mid 20s. With the growing season hyper active due to recent record warmth, this would result in a killing/damaging freeze for a good portion of the forecast area. Thus, have issued a Freeze Watch the northern two-thirds of the forecast area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Monday... * Largely below normal temperatures in the extended, with a warmup expected early next week * Greatest rain chances still late Thu night through Fri, though showers may still linger Saturday The Continental Polar high over us to start Wed will lift north and east, with return flow setting up on Thu as a warm front lifts into the Mid-Atlantic. A deep trough starts to dig into the mid-section of the country late Wed. This trough will deepen as it tracks ESE from the OH/TN valley region into the Mid-Atlantic from late Thu night thru Sat. Most guidance then shows the trough exits off the Mid-Atlantic coast late Sat or early Sun. At the surface, southerly flow takes over Thu, with a brief warmup into Fri, ahead of a cold front forecast to track through the region by Sat morning. A surface low is forecast to develop along the front on Fri, but ensemble guidance is mixed on its track. Some of the ensemble clusters take the main low into northern VA, while other clusters take the system further south right atop the Carolinas. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that the low will move offshore by midday Sat, with a mean center off Delmarva. Based on the suite of deterministic and ensemble data, the best chance for showers still appears late Thu night through Fri, with the highest rain chances Fri aftn/eve. Depending on the low track, isolated storms will be possible Fri aftn/eve in the warm sector under ample shear and instability ~ 500 J/kg. Showers may linger into Sat on the back side of the system with the mid-level trough overhead, especially along/east of US-1. Even in the absence of rain, it should cloudy/chilly Sat. Ensemble guidance generally pushes the trough out by Sun, but one outlier solution keeps it over us into Sun. We will hold on to slight chances of rain along/east of US-1 during the day Sat, but keep it dry for Sun. Warmer weather is expected by early next week under ridging building into the area. As for temperatures, highs will largely be below normal. Our warmest days will be Thu/Fri ahead of the late-week cold front in the upper 60s to low 70s. Our coldest days will be Wed and Sat in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Above normal weather is forecast by Mon with highs well into the 70s under southwest surface flow. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 820 PM Monday... Of most imminent concern is an area of storms which will pass near or just S and SE of FAY through 02z, producing frequent lightning and wind gusts over 35 mph likely, potentially higher. Otherwise, widespread rain persists across central NC terminals, although MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys are mostly across the E half (FAY/RWI). As a cold front, currently sitting across W and N NC, drops slowly SE through tonight, surface winds will swing from SW to be from the NW or NNW, and sub-VFR conditions will trend to VFR with diminished gusts, all likely occurring around 04z-05z in the Triad, 06z-07z at RDU/RWI, and 08z-09z at FAY, although sct VFR clouds will linger through much of Tue, briefly going bkn mid morning into early afternoon at all sites. And after 13z, frequent gusts from the NW at 15-25 mph are expected until 22z. Looking beyond 00z Wed, VFR conditions are likely to dominate until Thu, when an approaching storm system will bring a risk of sub-VFR conditions and shower/storm chances from late Thu through Fri. Gusty winds are expected areawide Thu and Fri as well. VFR conditions should then return for Sat. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield/CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...Kren AVIATION...Hartfield