321
FXUS62 KRAH 132130
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated.
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
430 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry Arctic cold front will cross the region this evening, bringing
a cold high pressure area and frigid temperatures during the middle
of the week. Another high will settle over the Gulf states late in
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 430 PM Monday...

Patchy Black Ice tonight and Tuesday morning possible from the Triad
to Roxboro.

We will issue a Special Weather Statement for Forsyth... Guilford...
Alamance... Orange... and Person Counties for a refreeze and patchy
black ice development. In talking to partners, there is still a fair
amount of melting ongoing with plenty of opportunity of refreeze in
shady areas and the development of black ice across some of the area
roads. Be extra cautious across the Triad and northern NC, mainly
along and north of I-85 through noon Tuesday.

A dry Arctic cold front currently analyzed over eastern TN/KY will
move through the region from NW to SE this evening, as the surface
high builds east into the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Dew
points behind the front will begin to drop, reaching the mid-teens
to mid-20s by early Tuesday morning. While winds don`t look
completely calm tonight given the frontal passage and high displaced
to our west, there will still be low dew points, clear skies, and
relatively light winds. This will help low temperatures reach the
lower-20s north and west, with mid-to-upper-20s south and east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 111 PM Monday...

Prev AFD still valid - no need for changes:  Dry and rather cold.
The polar upper low over the St Lawrence early Tue will shift
quickly E across New England to the Canadian Maritimes through Tue
night, taking a mid level westerly speed max and dry surface cold
front ESE through central NC. Given the dry trajectory and with no
opportunity for this system to pick up any moisture as we remain cut
off from any Gulf and Atlantic source inflow, cloudiness should be
very limited, with no pops. The core of the incoming frigid surface
high will drop S through the Midwest and central Miss Valley into
the W Ohio Valley through Tue night, and it still appears likely
that the mountains will delay the arrival of the coldest and most
dense air until after sunset, thus still expect highs to be on the
milder side of statistical guidance, yet still cool for this time of
year with low level thicknesses around 20 m below normal. Highs will
range from around 40 at the VA border to near 50 at the SC border.
Colder air will pour in from the N Tue evening and night, with
plummeting dewpoints, supporting much below normal lows of 14 to 23.
Latest guidance suggests that surface winds could be a bit lighter
than earlier expected Tue evening and night, and as such the wind
chill may not be quite as low as anticipated, although still in the
upper single digits to mid teens. Will continue to monitor forecast
temps and winds for the need for a Cold Weather Advisory Tue night
into early Wed. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 126 PM Monday...

Upper pattern: We`ll see wnwly flow aloft over central NC Wednesday
as an upper wave moves off the eastern seaboard.  Another lobe of
vorticity and associated short-wave will dive into the deep south
Thursday into Friday.  This will help to shunt anomalous moisture
associated with a Gulf of Mexico system to our south keeping central
NC dry through early Friday. Beyond early Friday, models suggest a
persistent long-wave trough developing along the eastern seaboard,
with a series of embedded short-waves trekking across the US through
the end of the extended period.

Temperatures: The airmass will be coldest on Wednesday, with highs
only reaching the upper 30s.  Temperatures will then moderate back
into the lower to mid 50s by Friday and continuing into the weekend.
A potential cool down is then possible next Monday.

Precipitation: Dry weather is expected Wednesday through much of
Friday.  By Friday night/early Saturday, ensembles continue to
suggest increasing chances for precipitation ahead of sfc cold
front. There`s still some timing uncertainty, but in all, it does
appear most guidance suggests a few waves of precipitation will be
possible through much of the weekend.  However, it continues to
appear too warm for any PTYPE concerns at this point.  After a rainy
weekend, things should dry out by Monday behind an exiting cold
front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1240 PM Monday...

VFR conditions will prevail across central NC through the next 24
hours. Weak low pressure over the NE Gulf of Mexico continues to
spread a broken deck of mid and high clouds across the south and
east (including FAY and RWI), but this will continue to exit the
region over the next few hours with clear skies behind it. Light
westerly winds today will shift northwesterly behind a cold front
this evening, increasing tomorrow morning and potentially gusting to
15-20 kts at times.

Outlook: Dry VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through
Friday. The next chance of rain and sub-VFR conditions comes with a
cold front late Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Danco
NEAR TERM...Badgett/Danco
SHORT TERM...np/Hartfield
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...Danco