567
FXUS62 KRAH 080143
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
940 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow-moving cold front will push southeast through the region
tonight. Chilly high pressure will bring much colder air and a
threat for nighttime frost and freeze conditions through mid week.
Another cold front will approach Thursday, with the next chance of
showers late Thursday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 940 PM Monday...

The threat of severe storms has ended in central NC, as the last
band of warm sector convection is shifting E out of the central
Coastal Plain, with quickly increasing CINH over the area. The cold
front is clearly seen on radar bisecting the CWA, just to the SE of
the Triangle, moving steadily to the SE. The thick multilayered
clouds and widespread rain will persist, however, until the mid
level shortwave trough (still just to our W, across E TN into NW GA
and NE AL) shifts ENE through our area in the next several hours.
Post frontal CAA will accompany the WNW-ESE clearing overnight, and
we`re on track to reach lows in the low 40s to low 50s. -GIH

Earlier discussion from 330 PM: A vigorous upper trough and
attendant wavy cold front will move through the area through this
evening and tonight. Anomalously moist PWATS of 1.7-1.9"(falls
outside/above the NAEFS 3-week centered climatology dating back to
1979)into the area will set the stage for multiple rounds of showers
and storms within a slow eastward moving band of convection. The
convection/rain is expected to exit the eastern/coastal plain zones
between 06 to 08z.

The lead pre-frontal band of convection finally made it into
eastern/southeastern portions of the forecast area, where surface
temperatures have warmed into the low-mid 80s with 64-70 F
dewpoints. The resultant 1000-1500 J/Kg of SBCape has allowed some
bowing segments to develop within the line, with 50-56kts causing
some damage over the eastern Sandhills. This lead band will exit the
area within the next hour. Additional showers and thunderstorms are
expected to re-develop through the remainder of the afternoon and
evening. However, rain cooled temperatures in the mid 60s will
likely thwart any secondary threat. Will have to monitor and update
as needed.

Expected storm total rainfall amounts of 1-2", with localized higher
amounts of 2-3" possible, will bring some much needed widespread
rain to the abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions
encompassing much of central NC. Flooding threat will be very
localized/isolated, likely limited to poor drainage/urban
environments. In terms of rivers, forecast and ensemble guidance
indicate that main-stream rivers should stay below flood guidance,
with a few forecast points, approaching actions stage, with a worst-
scenario of cresting just above minor flood stage.

Temperatures: CAA will set in tonight with lows much cooler compared
to the 3-4 day span of record warm nights. Lows ranging from upper
30s/near 40 NW to upper 40s/near 50 SE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Monday...

-Frost/freeze conditions likely Tuesday night.

A dry reinforcing cold front will move across the region during the
afternoon and evening as Canadian surface high pressure builds over
the area Tuesday night. After days of record warmth, the cP airmass
building into the area will definitely bring a drastic change and
shock to many Carolinians. Highs ranging from mid 50s north, to
lower 60s south.

The primary concern is the Freeze potential Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning. The center of the surface high settles into an ideal
position by daybreak Wednesday, with winds likely decoupling across
the northern half of the forecast area. Lows are expected to range
from upper 20s to lower 30s across the northern two-thirds of the
forecast area, and mid 30s across the southern tier. Some of the
colder locations could bottom out into the mid 20s. With the growing
season hyper active due to recent record warmth, this would result
in a killing/damaging freeze for a good portion of the forecast
area. Thus, have issued a Freeze Watch the northern two-thirds of
the forecast area.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Monday...

* Largely below normal temperatures in the extended, with a warmup
  expected early next week

* Greatest rain chances still late Thu night through Fri, though
  showers may still linger Saturday

The Continental Polar high over us to start Wed will lift north and
east, with return flow setting up on Thu as a warm front lifts into
the Mid-Atlantic. A deep trough starts to dig into the mid-section
of the country late Wed. This trough will deepen as it tracks ESE
from the OH/TN valley region into the Mid-Atlantic from late Thu
night thru Sat. Most guidance then shows the trough exits off the
Mid-Atlantic coast late Sat or early Sun. At the surface, southerly
flow takes over Thu, with a brief warmup into Fri, ahead of a cold
front forecast to track through the region by Sat morning. A surface
low is forecast to develop along the front on Fri, but ensemble
guidance is mixed on its track. Some of the ensemble clusters take
the main low into northern VA, while other clusters take the system
further south right atop the Carolinas. Guidance is in fairly good
agreement that the low will move offshore by midday Sat, with a mean
center off Delmarva.

Based on the suite of deterministic and ensemble data, the best
chance for showers still appears late Thu night through Fri, with
the highest rain chances Fri aftn/eve. Depending on the low track,
isolated storms will be possible Fri aftn/eve in the warm sector
under ample shear and instability ~ 500 J/kg. Showers may linger
into Sat on the back side of the system with the mid-level trough
overhead, especially along/east of US-1. Even in the absence of
rain, it should cloudy/chilly Sat. Ensemble guidance generally
pushes the trough out by Sun, but one outlier solution keeps it over
us into Sun. We will hold on to slight chances of rain along/east of
US-1 during the day Sat, but keep it dry for Sun. Warmer weather is
expected by early next week under ridging building into the area.

As for temperatures, highs will largely be below normal. Our warmest
days will be Thu/Fri ahead of the late-week cold front in the upper
60s to low 70s. Our coldest days will be Wed and Sat in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Above normal weather is forecast by Mon with highs
well into the 70s under southwest surface flow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 820 PM Monday...

Of most imminent concern is an area of storms which will pass near
or just S and SE of FAY through 02z, producing frequent lightning
and wind gusts over 35 mph likely, potentially higher. Otherwise,
widespread rain persists across central NC terminals, although MVFR
to IFR cigs/vsbys are mostly across the E half (FAY/RWI). As a cold
front, currently sitting across W and N NC, drops slowly SE through
tonight, surface winds will swing from SW to be from the NW or NNW,
and sub-VFR conditions will trend to VFR with diminished gusts, all
likely occurring around 04z-05z in the Triad, 06z-07z at RDU/RWI,
and 08z-09z at FAY, although sct VFR clouds will linger through much
of Tue, briefly going bkn mid morning into early afternoon at all
sites. And after 13z, frequent gusts from the NW at 15-25 mph are
expected until 22z.

Looking beyond 00z Wed, VFR conditions are likely to dominate until
Thu, when an approaching storm system will bring a risk of sub-VFR
conditions and shower/storm chances from late Thu through Fri. Gusty
winds are expected areawide Thu and Fri as well. VFR conditions
should then return for Sat. -GIH


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...Hartfield