538
FXUS62 KILM 231036
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
636 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong mid and upper ridge will build in over the eastern
United States through midweek with a significant warming trend.
Hot afternoon temperatures combined with high humidity will
create dangerous heat through much of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Building surface and mid-level ridging will lead to a hot and
dry day today. Forecast soundings show a strong subsidence
inversion from 6k-8k ft that will be almost impossible to
overcome, even with temperatures pushing 100 degrees in some
areas. Expect to see some flatter, fluffy cumulus, but the
strong subsidence and mid-level dry air will keep storms at bay.
Bigger story will be the onset of the heatwave with much of the
area seeing heat index values north of 105 degrees. No plans to
change the ongoing heat advisory as both Georgetown and
Williamsburg counties and the coastal strip flirt with, but
ultimately fall short of meeting criteria.

As far as records go, the sea breeze will keep CRE from hitting
their record of 98 set on Jun 23, 1990, the current forecast
high for CRE is 93. The other 3 climate stations are in play
with LBT having the best chance. Both FLO(forecast high 99,
record 101 in 1998) and ILM(forecast high 98, record high 100 in
2011) currently fall 2 degrees short while LBT forecast high of
100 would tie the record set in 2010.

Temperatures well above normal continue overnight with lows
struggling to drop below mid 70s. Not expecting much if any fog
with boundary layer winds 10-12 kt.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Strong ridging will maintain hot weather on Tuesday. Afternoon
highs should eclipse 100 in a few spots with dangerous heat
indices expected. Dry air aloft and a strong subsidence
inversion should keep afternoon storm chances low. Latest
forecast does include a 15% PoP for Tuesday with models hinting
at some activity in the western and central Carolinas along a
thermal trough. The ridge begins to weaken Tuesday afternoon
with a slight tilt, resulting from a developing low to our
southeast. The combination of these factors could produce a
stray storm, mainly inland. This is likely overdone in the
models, but I included the least mentionable PoP possible given
the existing cap and dry air. Remaining warm overnight with lows
in the mid and upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper ridging over the eastern half of the country will begin
to degrade on Wednesday. The impact will be returning storm
chances and afternoon highs becoming a degree or two cooler.
Afternoon storms will help the intense heat on Wednesday, but
not before temperatures rise into the upper 90s with dangerous
heat indices. The Extreme Heat Watch continues through late
Wednesday.

By Thursday, an upper low to our south will reestablish easterly
flow. Some weak subsidence near the northern periphery of the
low could limit diurnal storm coverage over our area on Thursday
afternoon. The weekend will feature near normal temperatures and
a better chance of afternoon storms near and along a Piedmont
trough.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High confidence in VFR the next 24 hours. Northwest winds this
morning with shift to southeast in the afternoon once the sea
breeze passes. Speeds will remain under 10 kt although a few
gusts around 10 kt will be possible in the afternoon at coastal
terminals. Surface and mid-level ridging will create an
environment unfavorable for development of showers and
thunderstorms. Not expecting fog tonight due to strength of
winds within the boundary layer and dry air at the top of the
boundary layer will prevent formation of low stratus.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight... Weak gradient and hot temperatures inland
will lead to the sea breeze dominating the wind field today and
tonight. Light offshore flow this morning becomes onshore by
midday with afternoon speeds briefly peaking in the 10-15 kt
range, strongest near shore. Speeds decrease in the evening as
the sea breeze starts to weaken and flow eventually reverts to
offshore during the pre-dawn hours. Seas will run 2 ft and be a
mix of a southeast swell and a south to southwest wind wave with
the wind wave gradually becoming dominant later in the day.

Tuesday through Friday... The weak gradient becomes dominated by
the Bermuda high late Wednesday and Thursday morning as the
ridge weakens. Southeasterly swell will hover around 2 feet
through much of this week. With increasing winds on Friday,
swells will climb to 2-3 feet with winds of around 10-15 knots.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for
     NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-058-059.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/21