402
FXUS62 KILM 090420
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1220 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry conditions through the upcoming weekend. Hurricane
Milton is expected to bring hazardous marine and surf
conditions, as well as elevated wind gusts to immediate coastal
areas, Thursday into Friday as it passes by well to the south
and southeast. Warming temperatures are expected this weekend
ahead of an approaching cold front next Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Forecast in good shape overnight so no major changes were made.
Just starting to see high clouds increasing from the south.
Temps should fall below normal into the lower to mid 50s most
locales by daybreak.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
High pressure is well established over the region, with drier
air building into the forecast area. Precipitable waters will be
below 1" throughout the period. No rain is expected. Northeast
winds will continue as the high pressure remains to the north
and Milton remains to the south of the area.

The cooler air advecting into the region will help the lows fall
into the lower 50s in the interior portions of Southeast North
Carolina and the mid to upper 50s along the coast. Highs on
Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Milton is expected to continue to move toward the E during the
short term period, likely crossing FL Wednesday night into
Thursday. By Thursday night Milton will be far south of the
region and start to begin the transition to extra-tropical.
During this time, high pressure will remain anchored across the
Carolinas as it ridges southward from the Great Lakes Region.
The resulting pressure gradient between these two systems will
remain very tight with gusty winds, especially along the coastal
areas during Thursday. Otherwise, the area of high pressure
will suppress moisture to the south of the forecast area. In
fact, time-height cross sections show a very dry column in
place, especially above H85. The primary local impacts thanks to
the aforementioned strong gradient between the high and Milton
will be minor coastal flooding, especially with high tide
Thursday, rough surf/strong rip currents, and hazardous boating
conditions. Much cooler weather is on tap for late Thursday
night with lows in the upper 40s most inland areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
During Friday-Saturday Milton will continue to move farther
away from the Southeast U.S. coast as high pressure drifts
southward across the Carolinas and eventually the Deep South.
The weaker pressure gradient will translate to lighter winds,
while the dry column will remain in place with a POP-free/cool
temp setup. Lows Friday night into Saturday morning will likely
be in the 40s across most of the forecast area, the exception
being along the immediate coast. The high will shift farther
south ahead of the next cold front allowing for some warning
Sunday into Monday. Once the next front moves through during
the first part of next week temperatures will likely drop below
normal again by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions through 06Z/10 as high
pressure reigns over the region. Low clouds offshore should
remain there so not expecting any ceiling restrictions even at
the coastal terminals. Winds mainly stay N/NE 10 kt or less but
could see some 15 kt gusts, especially near the coast this
afternoon.

Extended Outlook...VFR to prevail under high pressure expected
through the period. Northeast winds will increase especially at
the coastal TAF sites as Hurricane Milton pass far to the south
of the area on Thursday. An isolated shower is possible
Thursday mainly for KCRE and KMYR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday... Northeast winds of 15 knots will continue as
high pressure builds over the coastal waters, and Hurricane Milton
remains to the south. Wave heights of 3 to 5 feet are expected
throughout the period, with the highest waves being in the Murrells
Inlet and the South Santee River coastal waters.

Wednesday night through Sunday...
Very rough maritime conditions are expected given the fetch
between high pressure to the north and Milton which will cross
Florida during Thursday. The storm will become extra-tropical as
it moves farther away from the Southeast U.S. Friday through the
weekend. Winds will be highest during Thursday, then conditions
will gradually improve Friday, but more-so this weekend.
Southwesterly flow will return across the waters during Sunday
ahead of the next cold front.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding is expected to continue along the Lower Cape
Fear River through the end of the week, especially during the
daytime high tides. Coastal flooding is possible on Thursday along
the entire coast. This coastal flooding will result from the
northeast winds on the north side of Hurricane Milton, which will
remain well to the south.

In addition, an elevated risk of rip currents will continue for all
beaches much of the week due to the influence from Hurricane Milton
passing by to our south. High surf will be possible by late week for
east-facing beaches.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Watch for AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...RH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RH/SRP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...