615
FXUS62 KRAH 230522
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
120 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong ridge of high pressure will strengthen across the eastern
U.S. bringing a period of dangerous heat during much of the upcoming
work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 810 PM Sunday...
Little change made to the going forecast through tonight.
Mesoanalysis reveals a dome of high pressure at mid-levels over the
OH valley and Mid-Atlatic states. Weakening storms that developed
near Delmarva are producing some high clouds that are drifting SSW
around the ridge. Some of these clouds will reach us tonight and
overnight, but otherwise we should be quiet. There is a low-end
chance of some fog once again over the Coastal Plain. However,
nearly all guidance was absent in low visibilities compared the past
several days. Will keep out any mention of fog. Overnight lows will
be rather muggy in the low to mid 70s, except some upper 60s in
outlying areas of the Piedmont.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Sunday...
- Dangerous heat expected Monday.
- Heat Advisory was issued for portions of Central NC.
As the ridge builds over the eastern US warm temperatures will
continue through the week. Monday will be the first of many
extremely hot days. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 90s
with some warmer urban areas reaching 100 degrees. With some upper
level moisture wrapping around and moving in from the Atlantic, dew
points are expected to stay in the low to mid 70s for much of the
day. This will result in heat indices of 100-109 across much of
Central NC. With high confidence of the heat indices reaching Heat
Advisory criteria, opted to put out a Heat Advisory for much of the
CWA. The higher indices will be across the Triangle region and the
Coastal Plain region. A few Daily Record High temperatures as well
as Record High Min temperatures could be ties or with in a few
degrees of being tied. (see climate section at the end of the
discussion)
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 236 PM Sunday..
* Extreme Heat Watch in effect for all of central NC Tuesday morning
through Wednesday evening.
* Limited precipitation chances are expected during the period.
The anomalous mid-level ridge will continue to strengthen through
mid to late week, reaching ~2 to 3 standard deviations above normal
by Tuesday/Wednesday. This will promote a prolonged period of
increasingly anomalous heat.
From Tuesday through Wednesday, the center of the ridge will
maximize directly over central NC. As such, expect temperatures to
soar into the upper 90s/lower 100s each afternoon. Still think dew
points will mix out into the 60s both Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons. However, with the expected increase in dry bulb
temperatures, we should likely reach Heat Advisory criteria over
much of central NC. Given the expected mixing especially across the
west, pretty confident we won`t reach Excessive Heat Warning
criteria in these locations. For those in Raleigh, sand along the I-
95 corridor, there`s a decent chance locations will reach HI of 110+
for a few hours especially Tuesday afternoon. Regardless of spatial
differences in HI potential, given the expected repeated days of
oppressive heat, decided to issue an Extreme Heat Watch Tuesday
morning through Wednesday evening for all of central NC.
The ridge will start to break down a bit Thursday into the weekend,
and as such daytime highs may drop off a bit into mid 90s. However,
PWAT is expected to rise back above normal (~1.5 to 1.75 inches)
during this period. As such, afternoon dew points may stay a bit
more elevated compared to early in the week and therefore Heat
Advisory criteria may continue to be reached Thursday into the
weekend for certain areas. Additionally, the experimental HeatRisk
product (which incorporates repeated heat days and overnight temps
in it`s equation) indicates extreme heat conditions continuing for
most of central NC through at least Saturday. Lastly, isolated to
scattered convection will likely accompany this moistening,
generally over the higher terrain/foothills and/or along any
differential heating/lee sfc troughs that develop each afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 AM Monday...
Latest guidance continues to trend away from significant fog
development, though very patchy fog is likely. As such, did not
include in the TAFs at this time. If any fog is to develop, the best
chance looks to be across eastern terminals(KRWI and KFAY) late
tonight/early morning.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Look for some
diurnal cu(4-6kft) developing in the afternoon, underneath
scattering cirrus aloft. Winds will remain light and variable
through the period.
Outlook: Predominately VFR conditions are expected through late
week, supported by strong high pressure aloft. Aside from some
patchy morning fog or stratus and isolated/widely scattered
afternoon convection, aviation impacts should remain minimal.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Weather Records/Record Daily High Minimum Temperatures...
Raleigh Greensboro Fayetteville
June 22 78 (1933) 75 (1981) 84 (1928)
June 23 78 (2024) 74 (2024) 77 (2024)
June 24 76 (2024) 76 (2015) 79 (2010)
June 25 77 (2010) 75 (2015) 75 (1952)
June 26 77 (2024) 74 (2010) 76 (1997)
June 27 76 (1952) 76 (1969) 77 (1998)
June 28 76 (1952) 76 (1969) 78 (1914)
Weather Records/Record Daily Maximum Temperatures...
Raleigh Greensboro Fayetteville
June 22 100 (2022) 100 (1914) 101 (1990)
June 23 100 (2024) 102 (1914) 102 (1981)
June 24 99 (2010) 103 (1914) 102 (1914)
June 25 100 (1952) 101 (1914) 102 (1914)
June 26 103 (2024) 102 (1914) 101 (1951)
June 27 104 (1954) 102 (1954) 102 (1998)
June 28 100 (1959) 99 (1959) 105 (1954)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ007>011-
023>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening
for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...CBL
CLIMATE...RAH