628 FXUS62 KRAH 100136 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 935 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A series of upper level disturbances will move through the Mid Atlantic region through Tuesday night, bringing stormy weather, particularly this evening through Tuesday evening. The shower and storm chances will push southeast and decrease Wednesday, as high pressure approaches from the west. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 935 PM Monday... Still a locally damaging wind threat in the south and east for a few more hours as the track of the MCV comes overhead. Locally heavy rain to 1 to 1.5 inches possible through midnight or so. The earlier storm over southern Sampson County had a legitimate severe threat; however, the rest of the convection has been very garden variety thus far. There is still a marginal risk of a damaging wind gust or two - mainly in the south and east where the best instability exists ahead of the approaching MCV nearing our SW Piedmont. This MCV should continue to track ENE toward RDU and weaken in the next few hours. The trailing convection to the bow echo near CAE is also anticipated to weaken as it moves toward our SE Piedmont/Sandhills in the next few hours. Another weaker MCV near Mount Airy was moving just NW of Winston- Salem mid-evening. The latest hi-res models also suggest a weakening trend toward 11 pm through 200 am as all the convection tracks NE over our region. Regardless, some locally heavy rainfall and occasional lightning will pose hazards. PW`s jumped from 1.3 to 2 inches across the SE in 4 hours this evening. Also, gusty wind in the storms with downdraft cape still rather elevated (500-1000 j/kg), (but forecast to depart to our NE through 200 AM). POP will diminish significantly after 200 am. Lows 65-71 with mostly cloudy skies. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM Monday... Tonight`s shortwave trough and 2+" PW area will persist into Tue morning but shift ENE by midday, along with the higher coverage of convection, placing areas NW of Hwy 1 in a brief relative precip lull. The mid level low over N MI into central ON early Tue will swing NE into QC, with the broad and increasingly baggy trailing trough axis still extending SSW through the E Ohio Valley to the Deep South. As a result, as the steering flow becomes roughly parallel to the associated surface cold front, this front is likely to lose its propulsion and hang up somewhere over the W Piedmont. Skies should be generally mostly cloudy to overcast through much of the day, esp in the E, limiting insolation and heating and thus likely keeping CAPE marginal at most. But we`ll still be beneath the right entrance region of the upper jet core with non-zero DPVA, and with mid level flow remaining cyclonic at about 25-35 kts, a few embedded strong water-loaded storms may still occur, esp in the E where the higher PW will reside and where rain coverage will be greatest. After a short period of just 20-40% pops W-to-E in the morning, expect a trend to good chance (W) to likely (E) pops, highest pops along and E of Hwy 1, with rain chances trending down and out W to E Tue night. With clouds limiting heating, expect lower highs, in the 80s areawide. As the surface front drifts a bit E and becomes more SW-NE oriented Tue night, some lower dewpoints should start to work into the Triad, as weak surface high pressure attempts to build in from our NW overnight. Expect lows from the low-mid 60s NW to upper 60s-around 70 SE. -GIH && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 205 PM Monday... By Wednesday morning, the cold front should have pushed through the forecast area and be hung up somewhere along the Atlantic coastline. Recent model guidance has shifted the axis of precipitation slightly farther to the west, and have accordingly increased the chance of precipitation slightly, although it will still primarily be southeastern counties that will have the chance for rain. As the boundary pivots on Thursday, the chance for storms will also pivot, generally bringing a chance of thunderstorms to the south of US-64. By Friday, the chance of storms should return to all locations as the boundary lifts to the north through North Carolina during the day. As central North Carolina returns to the warm sector over the weekend, have gone with likely showers and thunderstorms, capping at high chances on Monday due to convective uncertainty a week out. Temperatures will be warm throughout the extended forecast, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to the lower 90s and lows ranging from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 752 PM Monday... 24 hour TAF period: An initial cluster of storms are currently sliding just southeast of KFAY early this evening. This cluster will likely continue ene and slide south of KRWI. Beyond this initial cluster, additional showers and storms upstream over the mountains and western SC will migrate into central NC through early tonight. These showers and storms may cause brief restrictions and gusty conditions at any of our terminals generally between ~02 and 06Z. Showers and storms should move east of the area or dissipate overnight. However, sub-VFR stratus will develop at all terminals (generally MVFR to IFR range) and linger through ~15 to 17Z Tuesday. Additional showers and storms are then possible later Tuesday afternoon and evening. Outlook: A cold front will move into and possibly stall over, the area Tue eve night behind the convection, with largely dry, VFR conditions expected in its wake through at least Wed night. Chances for aft/eve convection increase from Thu-Sat, accompanied by the usual restrictions. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Green AVIATION...Luchetti/KC