503
FXUS62 KMHX 230528
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
128 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area through early this week
with mainly dry conditions but dangerous heat and humidity.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 10 PM Sun...No changes needed with late eve update.
Prev disc... As of 717 PM Sun...No big changes with eve update.
Prev disc...As of 345 PM Sunday...
Key Messages
- Moderate heat risk through tonight
Ridging aloft and at the surface is expected to keep a lid on
the seabreeze for most of the area for the remainder of the
afternoon and evening, and the forecast will continue to reflect
this expectation. However, there has been just enough lift and
reduced inhibition along the seabreeze in the vicinity of the
Crystal Coast, which has allowed isolated showers to develop.
I`ve added in a mention of showers and thunderstorms in this
area for the next few hours. Temperatures through tonight will
be near to slightly above normal. Of note, temperatures this
afternoon and tonight may be the "coolest" of the next week. Let
that sink in a minute...
For tonight, it appears that a drier boundary layer will keep
the fog risk lower, and ensemble guidance suggests <10% chance
of impactful fog. In light of this, I`ve kept fog out of the
forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...
Key Messages
- A notable Eastern U.S. heatwave begins Monday
- Heat headlines are now in effect
Anomalous upper level, and surface, ridging will remain over
the Eastern Seaboard on Monday, with building low-level
thicknesses. Anomalous warmth beneath the ridge is expected to
support highs topping out in the mid to upper 90s for all areas
away from the immediate coast. For coastal communities, highs
are expected to top out near 90. Those temperatures combined
with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s should support a widespread
area of heat indices ("feels like temperatures) in the 105-110
degree range. In light of this, a Heat Advisory has been issued
for Monday and Monday night. It should be noted that while heat
indices will fall below 105 degrees at night, the overnight lows
are forecast to be a solid 10 degrees above normal for late
June. The anomalously warm overnight temperatures will offer
little in the way of relief after the dangerously hot daytime
temperatures, and this is why the advisory goes through the
nighttime hours. It should be noted that Monday marks the
beginning of an impactful heatwave for the Eastern U.S.,
including ENC, one that is expected to last several days.
With ridging overhead, the chance of thunderstorms on Monday
appears low. That said, one potential fly in the ointment is a
weak surface front that is forecast to slide south along the
coast late in the day and into the evening hours. Despite
ridging aloft, the front is favorably timed with peak heating
and the period of lowest inhibition. I suspect subsidence will
win out, but if there enough forcing along the front, it`s
within the realm of possibility that an isolated strong to
severe thunderstorm could develop. For now the forecast will
remain dry, but something to keep an eye on tomorrow. Should any
thunderstorms develop on Monday, the northerly flow aloft would
push them south or southwest.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sun...
Key Messages
- Dangerous heat and humidity lasts through late this week.
Heat indices are likely to reach 105 to 110+ degrees each
afternoon, with Tuesday and Wednesday the most oppressive day
as heat indices climb to 110 or greater.
A very strong upper level ridge will remain mostly stationary
over the region through the end of the week. Beneath this ridge,
low level heights will soar and with very light flow due to a
weak pressure gradient, the entire area (even the coast) will be
well above normal with with some near record temperatures
possible through Wednesday (at least). Highs are expected in
the mid to upper 90s these days, with some locations possibly
hitting 100 degrees. When factoring in the humidity, dangerous
heat conditions will develop each afternoon with heat indices
hitting 110+ Tuesday and Wednesday. Low level heights retreat
slightly the rest of the week, but highs in the mid to upper 90s
are expected with heat indices of 105-110 likely. The
cumulative effect of several days with dangerous heat indices
(and little relief at night) is something for those working or
spending much time outside to consider this week as they make
preparations for the heat.
Dry conditions are expected initially with strong subsidence
over the area, but eventually the ridge will weaken and
retrograde to the west, which should allow for at least some
isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity from midweek onward.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 130 AM Monday...Good flying conditions today with VFR
conditions expected over the next 24 hours as high pressure at
the surface and ridging aloft should keep a lid on any
shower/thunderstorm potential over the next 24 hours. Beneath
the high, slightly drier low-levels are expected to limit the
risk of BR/FG tonight, and guidance continues to show low
chances of fog. Winds will be light and variable through the
period.
LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 3 AM Sun...Primarily VFR conditions are forecast through
the period as high pressure builds in from the west. By midweek
isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms are possible, and could
bring some restrictions to terminals if they pass nearby.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Monday night/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...
Key Messages
- Good boating conditions expected through Monday
High pressure over the area should keep winds relatively light
through tonight, although there will be the typical bump up in
winds with the afternoon and evening thermal gradient. On
Monday, a weak front is forecast to slide south through area
waters. Southwesterly winds ahead of this front are expected to
be a bit higher compared to what they were this morning, but
only about 10-15kt. Behind the front, light and variable winds
are expected.
Seas of 2-3 ft are expected through Monday night.
LONG TERM /Tuesday though Friday/...
As of 3 AM Sun...Fantastic boating conditions are expected this
week as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region. The
pressure gradient will remain quite weak, which will allow
sea/sound breezes to play a big part in wind strength and
direction. Light and variable winds below 10 kts are expected
each morning, with winds increasing each afternoon and evening
to S/SW 10-15 kts in response to a developing sea breeze. Seas
will be mostly 2-3 ft through late week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
High Temperature Records at select climate sites from Monday
(6/23) through Friday (6/27).
**Please note...due to a large data gap from 1940-1955, the
Greenville COOP records likely do not reflect the "true" record
high for these days.
Record High Temperatures for Monday (6/23)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
New Bern 98/1988 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 90/2018 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville** 100/1933 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 96/1998 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 101/1911 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 99/2010 (NCA ASOS)
Record High Temperatures for Tuesday (6/24)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
New Bern 100/1944 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 95/1944 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville** 100/2010 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 97/1948 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 98/1952 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 98/2010 (NCA ASOS)
Record High Temperatures for Wednesday (6/25)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
New Bern 101/1952 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 96/1952 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville** 100/1921 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 96/1948 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 101/1952 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 98/1981 (NCA ASOS)
Record High Temperatures for Thursday (6/26)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
New Bern 103/1952 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 95/1952 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville** 99/2008 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 98/1968 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 102/1952 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 98/1968 (NCA ASOS)
Record High Temperatures for Friday (6/27)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
New Bern 105/1952 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 97/1952 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville** 100/2010 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 102/1959 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 105/1954 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 99/1998 (NCA ASOS)
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for
NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203.
Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
evening for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-
198-199-203>205.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/TL
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/ZC
MARINE...RM/SGK
CLIMATE...MHX