726
FXUS62 KMHX 230656
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
156 AM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifts offshore this morning as a cold front
approaches from the northwest, and crosses through ENC tonight.
High pressure then rebuilds offshore Christmas day and will
remain in place into this weekend. Another frontal system will
move through the region Sunday or early Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 2 AM Tue...

Key Messages...

- 20-50% chance for light rain today, highest across NE NC, but
  rainfall amounts will be minimal

With high pressure still overhead, good radiational cooling has
led to temps falling into the 30s, where they remain nearly
steady thanks to a steady stream of high/mid based clouds over
ENC. These clouds are finally sliding off the NC coast, and
areas where skies clear could see temps quickly fall into the
low 30s before low level clouds move in just before daybreak.

A weak cold front will approach from the NW today, with an area
of light rain showers moving along it. Limited moisture return
will result in only trace or minimal rainfall amounts, and the
best chance to see rain will be across NE NC (40-60%). South of
US 70, we`ll be mostly dry today, aside from a small window for
scattered light rain. Temperatures will be very slow to rise
initially, despite WAA ramping up, due to widespread cloud
cover and light rain. Eventually by this afternoon as rain moves
out and clouds become more scattered, temps will rise into the
upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 2 AM Tue...

Key Messages...

- Mild temps tonight, and above normal temps with abundant
  sunshine for Christmas Eve

Behind the weak cold front CAA will be meager, and expect lows
to remain in the mid to upper 40s as the boundary layer remains
mixed. High pressure will continue to build in from the
southwest and northwest Christmas Eve. This will keep northerly
flow at the surface while low level thicknesses remain above
normal. Due to the strong N winds, there will be quite a
temperature gradient due to onshore flow off the cold
ocean/sounds with areas along the OBX and Inner Banks remaining
in the 50s for highs, while the coastal plain and southern NC
coast see highs climb into the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 2 AM Tue...

Key Messages...

- Mostly dry conditions expected into this weekend with only
  some minor chances for light rain

- Above normal conditions continue through this weekend, with
  highs in the 60s to low 70s each day (except Friday which will
  be cooler)

- A pattern changing cold front will move through the area
  Sunday or early Monday and bring a return to below normal
  conditions early next week

A strong ridge of high pressure will develop across the Gulf
States Christmas Day and remain in place into this weekend. This
will give us mostly warm and dry weather, however at times
disturbances moving along the periphery of the ridge will bring
chances for light rain to ENC. The first will be Christmas Day
when an isolated shower will be possible around the Albemarle
Sound and points north. The second will be Friday night when a
disturbance and associated warm front graze North Carolina. A
stronger cold front is likely to move through the area Sunday or
early Monday, and will bring much colder conditions to the
Carolinas through early next week. There will also be chances
for light rain for this system, but only light precip amounts
are expected at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Tuesday...VFR conditions will persist through the
morning hours with light to calm winds and scattered high
clouds. A brief period of calm winds and clear skies will occur
between 6-10Z, but not expecting any fog to develop given the
low residence time. Today, a cold front will approach the area
and may produce some light rain or sprinkles across northern
portions of the CWA during the afternoon hours. Confidence was
not high enough to include a mention of precip in the TAFs, but
PGV and EWN would be the TAF sites most likely to see light rain
(15-20% chance). BKN clouds at 3500 to 4500 ft will move in
late morning then diminish to a few mid-level clouds by the
evening. Southwest winds will be around 10 kt with gusts to
15-20 kt during the afternoon, and there is a possibility of 35
kt of low-level wind shear at 2,000 ft for PGV, EWN, ISO.
Tuesday night will bring clear skies and light winds. Where
winds become calm, there would be a risk of fog and low stratus.


Outlook: Generally quiet Wednesday through the end of the week
with VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 2 AM Tue...

Key Messages...

- Gale conditions will develop later today over the Gulf Stream
  waters between Oregon Inlet and Cape Lookout. Small Craft
  conditions will be seen over the northern coastal waters and
  Pamlico Sound

- Behind a cold front tonight, a surge of northerly winds will
  keep Small Craft conditions in place through Wednesday for
  the coastal waters and eastern Sounds

- On and off Small Craft conditions expected for the rest of the
  week and into this weekend

Winds are currently light and variable early this morning but
will soon begin to strengthen out of the SW. Winds will become
SW 20-30 kts with gusts to 35-40 kts over the warmer ocean
waters this afternoon, and SW 15-25 kts elsewhere. Winds will
slowly veer tonight behind the front to the W and then WNW at
15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts. A surge of stronger northerly
winds are expected by early tomorrow morning at 20-30 kts with a
few gusts to 35 kts.

Seas will be 3-5 ft through the rest of the morning and then
increase to 5-8 ft by late this afternoon. Seas then subside to
4-6 ft tonight and remain in this range Wednesday.


Outlook: Conditions quickly improve Wednesday night with winds
veering from NE to S by Thursday morning. Winds will again
increase out of the SW Thursday afternoon with Small Craft
conditions likely on most of the coastal waters. Conditions
temporarily improve Friday, but winds come up again Friday night
to Small Craft levels into Saturday morning.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EST Wednesday
     for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST
     Wednesday for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning from noon today to 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-
     154.
     Gale Warning from noon today to 8 PM EST this evening for
     AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for
     AMZ231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...SGK