538 FXUS62 KMHX 170609 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 209 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain in control of the weather through the week. The next cold front may approach the area this weekend or early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 200 AM Thursday... KEY MESSAGES - Dry and quiet weather today - Mild temperatures inland, but cooler along the OBX A weak, dry cold front is still slated to slide south along the ENC coast this morning. For most, this should come through with little to no fanfare. However, along the OBX, the increased onshore flow behind the front is expected to lead to breezy and noticeably cooler conditions compared to the rest of ENC. There, highs are expected to top out around 60, which is roughly 10 degrees below normal for mid April. Elsewhere, highs will be in the 60s and 70s which is right around normal for this time of year. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM Thursday... KEY MESSAGES - Not as cool tonight, with patchy fog possible In the wake of today`s seabreeze, a continued southerly flow will help to draw a more moist airmass north into ENC through the night. This may allow patchy, shallow fog to develop for some, although the risk of impactful fog is very low (<10% chance). One factor that is likely to offset the fog potential is an area of mid and high level clouds that will be streaming southeast across the area associated with a dampening upper level shortwave. While the clouds will help offset the fog potential, they should also help keep temperatures from falling as much as they otherwise could. In light of this, lows tonight are expected to be 5-10 degrees warmer tonight compared to this morning for most areas. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 PM Wed... Late week...High pressure building in from the west by mid-week in another shot of slightly below-average temperatures. Each day will moderate a bit more, with temps returning to above climo by the end of the work week. Saturday through Sunday...Long- range guidance cont to point to another surface low lifting across the Great Lakes dragging another front towards our region. However, 16/00Z Ensemble guidance mainly dry with this weak front sinking in and ENC cont under influence of ridging, thus favoring cont dry weather. Have therefore kept the fcst dry for the weekend. Temps warm back above climo with anomalously higher than climo hts/thicknesses, with highs in the 80s interior with 70s coast. Monday through Tuesday...Perhaps a slightly better chance for measurable rain by the beginning of the work week as somewhat higher PW`s begin to encroach on ENC from the west and south. Have introduced silent 20% pops for the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06z Friday/... As of 115 AM Thursday... KEY MESSAGES - VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours A weak cold front is still expected to move south through ENC overnight, with a slight bump up in northeasterly winds by sunrise Thursday. Northeasterly winds will then become southeasterly later this afternoon and early this evening as the daily seabreeze advances inland through all of ENC. In the wake of the seabreeze, low-level moisture will gradually increase, which may open the door for BR/MIFG Thursday night. Right now, the probability of this occurring is LOW (<10% chance). LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 3 PM Wed...Pred VFR conditions expected through the long term. Light winds inc to aoa 20 kt again late in the week, mainly in the afternoons. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 200 AM Thursday... KEY MESSAGES - Relatively quiet boating conditions through tonight A weak cold front is still expected to slide south through the ENC waters this morning, accompanied by a modest bump up in northeasterly winds (10-20kt). Looking upstream across the coastal waters of Virginia, there doesn`t appear to be a significant uptick in winds quite yet, and it is possible that guidance is overdoing the bump up in winds with this front. Regardless, marine headlines are not anticipated with this front. For the coastal waters, seas of 1-3 ft this morning may build to 2-4 ft in the wake of today`s weak cold front passage. Seas then lay back down to 1-3 ft by tonight. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 3 PM Wed...Winds turn Southerly on Friday as the high settles offshore. Winds inc to near SCA levels once again on Sat as swrly winds of 15-20 kt with highers gusts will be common. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 200 AM Thursday... A weak, and dry, cold front is still forecast to slide south through ENC this morning, with a bump up in northeasterly winds possible. Inland, the airmass will be very dry, with the relative humidity (RH) expected to fall into the 20s and 30s percent. Later this afternoon into this evening, the seabreeze will advance inland all the way through ENC, and is expected to lead to a southeasterly wind shift and higher RH. Despite the dry airmass in place today, the lack of stronger winds should limit fire concerns. For any ongoing, or planned, burns, please be mindful of the NE to SE wind shift with the seabreeze today. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RM SHORT TERM...RM LONG TERM...OJC AVIATION...RM/OJC MARINE...RM/OJC FIRE WEATHER...MHX