737
FXUS62 KRAH 170530
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1230 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will linger along the Southeast coast through
Wednesday. A wedge front will develop and become quasi-stationary
over the western Piedmont of the Carolinas and Virginia Thursday and
Thursday night, then be overtaken by a cold front that will sweep
across the region early Friday. Following high pressure will migrate
quickly eastward and across and offshore the Southeast through
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1220 PM Tuesday...

A warming trend is occurring today as high pressure continues to
move off the coast to our south. This will cause light southerly to
southwesterly surface winds over the region, allowing highs to rise
generally into the upper 40s to around 50. This should still be
about 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Tonight,
temperatures look to drop below freezing everywhere in central NC,
with the coldest areas reaching mostly the upper 20s to around 30,
with some cooler locations reaching the mid 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM Tuesday...

Overview: Aloft, as a nrn stream s/w passes to the north on Wed, a
second s/w will approach from the west. This second s/w will
progress ewd across the area Wed night. Meanwhile to the west, the
longwave trough will amplify over the Plains/MS Valley as a potent
nrn stream s/w moves across the Rockies and into the Plains Wed/Wed
night. The srn stream s/w over the NW Gulf will lift quickly newd
into the Southeast US on Thu as the nrn stream s/w moves ewd across
the Plains and MS Valley. Both shortwaves will continue ewd across
the Southeast US and mid-Atlantic Thu night, with the longwave
trough moving into the region on their heels. At the surface,
Bermuda high will remain in place, ridging into the Southeast US
during the day Wed, while a lee trough weakens and a transient high
moves across the nrn mid-Atlantic. As the high shifts offshore and
strengthens Wed night, a warm front will begin lifting nwd into the
area. While some weak ridging may extend across the far nrn/nwrn
portions of central NC Thu morning, largely expect the warm front to
lift across most of the area by mid-day. The question is whether
some in-situ CAD is able to set up and how long it remains in place
on Thu. With the warm advection and isentropic lift, the low-mid
levels should quickly saturate Thu morning, with some light rain
possible in the west, though confidence on occurrence is not high.
In the wake of the warm front, sly flow will increase, the pressure
gradient also increasing as a strong cold front approaches from the
west. The cold front should cross the Appalachians Thu night, but
guidance varies wrt how far east it progresses by 12Z Fri. Latest
consensus suggests it may be moving into or through the Triad by Fri
morning.

Precipitation: Wed/Wed night should largely be dry. Some light rain
is possible in the west Thu morning, but otherwise the chances for
rain and showers are maximized Thu night, roughly between 00Z and
12Z Fri, coincident with the s/w passages aloft. Rainfall totals
generally one-half to three-quarters of an inch across central NC.
Some thunder will be possible, with the highest chances across the
Sandhills and srn/cntl Coastal Plain.

Temperatures: Highs Wed generally in the mid to upper 50s, with lows
Wed night ranging from low/mid 30s north to around 40 degrees south.
Thu will be tricky, as it depends on the potential in-situ CAD
development and progression of the warm front. For now, expect highs
ranging from around 50 degrees NW to mid 60s SE, with the potential
to be off by a few/several degrees.

The leading edge of a cold front will be pushing through the area
through Fri morning. Cloud coverage should effectively clear out
through the morning into the early afternoon hours as the mid/upper
level pivots across the Mid-Atlantic and a drier Canadian airmass
filters into the region. Wind gusts 15 to 25 mph will be common
through the morning hours behind the fropa, but as cloud coverage
clears, frequent wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph should be expected and
infrequent gusts of around 35 mph will also become possible. Wind
gusts should cease around sunset as the pressure gradient begins to
relax and the surface decouples with nocturnal cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Wednesday...

* Trending unseasonably milder, briefly, through the weekend
* Cooler and more-seasonable Mon-Tue
* Just a slight chance of rain Sun evening, with a little better low
  chance on Tue

Continued progressive flow will become quasi-zonal across the mid-
latitudes, around a sub-tropical high and surrounding ridge forecast
to migrate from the sern Pacific to the srn Plains through early to
mid next week. The models are in better agreement tonight regarding
the amplitude of a shortwave trough forecast to progress across the
Great Lakes and Northeast this weekend, with associated forcing for
ascent that will likely remain north of cntl NC.

At the surface, ~1025 mb high pressure will migrate quickly ewd and
across and offshore the srn Middle Atlantic and Carolinas Sat-Sat
night, during which time a warm front will develop ewd from the mid
MS Valley to the Southeast. It will consequently turn milder across
cntl NC this weekend, ahead of a reinforcing cold front that will
settle swd across the srn Middle Atlantic late Sun-Sun night, with
following high pressure that will ridge across the Middle Atlantic
with cooler temperatures Mon-Tue. Return flow, and developing
isentropic lift around the ridge, will favor a small chance of rain
Tue into Tue night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 847 PM Tuesday...

VFR conditions with vrb to light sfc flow will prevail through mid
Wednesday morning. Before the inversion breaks, a low-level jet will
strengthen primarily over the Coastal Plain/central Piedmont. As
such, there could be a period of marginal LLWS at KRDU/KFAY/KRWI,
but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this juncture.
Otherwise, when the inversion lifts, expect sswly gusts of up to 20
kts at KFAY/KRWI Wednesday afternoon before diminishing at sunset.
Otherwise, expect high level clouds to move in over the area and
persist through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through Wednesday. Flight
restrictions and rain will accompany a frontal system across the
region Thu-Thu night. Additionally, low-level wind shear will be
possible Wed morning. VFR and dry weather will return on Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...LH
SHORT TERM...10/AWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...Luchetti/LH