467
FXUS62 KRAH 150155
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
855 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper level disturbance will move across the area through
early Friday. High pressure will build into the area through the
weekend and into early next week. Another storm system will approach
the region the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 850 PM Thursday...

Surface observations show a developing and deepening area of low
pressure located over far southern NC (near Wilmington) with a warm
maritime front just inland near Surf City and offshore south of
Morehead City. Regional radar imagery and SPC Mesoanalysis show and
expansive area of light to moderate rain within the deeply WAA
regime north of the surface low slowly sliding eastward into the
Coastal Plain.

Hi-Res guidance shows this main axis of precipitation moving towards
the coast, but an area of rain is expected to persist across the
northeast quadrant of the forecast area tonight. This regime will be
driven by strong low-level FGEN within a lingering low-level
moisture layer as the surface low continues to deepen just off the
NC coast. This area of slow moving rain is expected to produce
another 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch of rain. This would bring the storm
total precipitation to 0.5 to 1 inch for most of the area with
around 1.5 inches along the periphery of the Coastal Plain.

Persistent low cloud cover and little to no low-level CAA should
only result in gradually drop in temperatures overnight by a few
degrees bottoming out in the low 40s (W) to low 50s (E). Some patchy
fog may develop late tonight over the western Piedmont if this low
overcast is able to break up and provide pockets of cooling, but
gradual stirring and some downsloping drying should prevent much of
a concern for dense fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM Thursday...

Following the recent consistent CAM runs and HREF output, rain
chances will persist over the NE CWA through Fri morning, with the
upper low diving SE through NE NC, providing an uptick in forcing
for ascent, while the deepening surface low near the Outer Banks Fri
morning keeps a stout moist NE flow into the area. As the surface
low shifts further offshore by early afternoon allowing low level
flow to gradually back to a drier N and NNW trajectory, rain chances
should end in the early afternoon, with increasing sunshine from W
to E through the afternoon. Expect highs Fri from the mid-upper 50s
NE, where lingering clouds will hamper heating, to the mid 60s SW.
Winds will be a bit blustery at times, with gusts in the 15-20 mph
range possible. Expect lows in the low-mid 40s Fri night, under fair
skies and with diminishing winds. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 PM Thursday...

Fair weather and seasonable weather can be expected this weekend,
thanks to sfc high and upper ridge covering much of the eastern US.
Highs both days will be in the 60s, while low temps Sunday morning
will range from 35 to 40, so frost looks like a good bet Sunday
morning, esp the normally colder locations.

By Monday the sfc high will move offshore but the upper ridge axis
will remain over the Southeast coast through Tuesday.  Resulting sly
flow will commence a warming trend which will allow for daytime
highs in the lower 70s both Monday and Tuesday and lows Tuesday
morning in the 40s...under mainly clear skies both days.

Clouds will begin to increase Tuesday night ahead of the next trough
approaching from the west.  Given the clouds, lows Wednesday morning
will hold in the 50s.

Rain chances will increase for the period Wednesday into early
Thursday with the passage of the initial short wave trough and
associated sfc cold front.  Uncertainty increases for the latter
half of the week given that the trough may close off over the
Midwest or Great Lakes region.  Depending on where that happens, we
could get dry slotted and dry out, or the aforementioned boundary
could stall across the region with rain chances lingering through
the late-week period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 720 PM Thursday...

24-hour TAF period: A deepening area of low pressure off the coast
of the Carolinas is continuing to bring an area of widespread
moderate (locally heavy) rain to central NC. This rain has now
pushed east of INT/GSO, with improving visibilities there, while
MVFR to locally IFR visibilities persist at the eastern terminals.
The rain should end in the next couple of hours at RDU and FAY,
while the heaviest/steadiest will end by around 06z at RWI, though
some light rain may linger around RWI at times into tomorrow morning
as a vigorous upper low moves overhead.

The other aviation impact will be the widespread IFR to LIFR
ceilings which have overspread much of central NC and will persist
through the night. They haven`t quite reached the far NE (including
RWI), but they will within the next hour or two. Drier air wrapping
around the backside of the low will bring a scattering to MVFR then
VFR in the Triad as soon as early tomorrow morning, with higher
confidence in VFR there by mid morning. Ceilings should lift to MVFR
by mid morning at RDU/FAY and late morning at RWI, with VFR by early
afternoon at RDU/FAY and mid to late afternoon at RWI.

Light winds mainly from the north tonight will increase and back a
bit to the NNW during the day tomorrow, gusting to 15-20 kts at
times.

Outlook: Dry VFR conditions are expected through early next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Swiggett
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...Danco