156 FXUS62 KGSP 111056 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 656 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue today. Dry conditions return this weekend and continue into Monday. Showers will be possible across the mountains Monday night as another fast moving systems passes through the region. Thereafter, dry weather continues into late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 6:35 AM EDT Friday: A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect over a good portion of our NC Piedmont zones until 8 AM. It`s looking like the fog won`t spread much further, so I think we should be good with the current DFA. Lows will be near-normal this morning. Otherwise, broad/deep upper trofing will continue to dig southward across the Southeast thru the near-term period. By the end of the period early Saturday, the upper trof axis should be centered right over our area. At the surface, weak low pressure will become more organized over our area today and then lift NE and off the Atlantic Coast later tonight and into Saturday. This synoptic setup will make for more unsettled weather this aftn/evening as fairly steep mid-level lapse rates and deep-layer QG forcing will support some amount of con- vection firing across the area thru today, likely peaking by mid to late aftn. The sfc low will bring low-level flow around and out of the W to NW during the aftn, so the better instability will likely shift east. This should keep the severe threat just to our east as well, but I wouldn`t totally rule out a few strong to severe storms over the I-77 corridor as the cooling temps aloft may support some hail and gusty winds in the deeper convection In addition, temps will likely be cold enough to produce some light snow flurries over the higher peaks and ridges along the NC/TN border tonight into early Saturday. Any snow accums should be negligible. Otherwise, highs temps today will be cool for mid-April and mainly in the 50s over the mtns and 60s across the lower terrain. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 202 AM Friday: The forecast continues Saturday with a deep trough draped along the East Coast with the trough axis situated east of the area. This will place the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia within a dry northwest flow regime. Low heights and modest cold advection will foster another cool day with daytime highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. The airmass begins to modify Sunday as the trough swings offshore and heights rise as upper ridging builds into the Appalachians. Resulting highs are forecast to return to the low 60s to low 70s. Overnight lows will remain on the cool side, however, with favorable radiational cooling, especially Sunday morning. At or below freezing lows will be possible across the mountains with mid to upper 30s east. A freeze watch may eventually be warranted Sunday morning for the southern mountains where the frost/freeze program has begun. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 218 AM Friday: The synoptic pattern remains progressive heading into next week with a shortwave trough quickly swinging across the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region by Tuesday morning. The warmest day of the period will be on Monday when heights are the highest along with compressional warming ahead of an advancing cold front. Resulting high temperatures are expected to climb into the low to mid 80s. The cold front, extending from a surface low over southern Ontario, will approach the mountains Monday night with a chance for showers along the immediate Tennessee border. Confidence is low as to how far east any showers may make it with most guidance in generally good agreement that showers will struggle to make it east of the mountains. Another shot of cool and dry air arrives Tuesday, but may be short lived as the progressive pattern reloads. A series of shortwave troughs is depicted Thursday into Friday with a return of rain chances. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Winds should remain light and vrb to calm at most sites thru much of the morning. Expect MVFR to IFR cigs and vsby to persist into mid-morning, with low VFR for all taf sites by the afternoon. Cigs at KHKY may remain MVFR well into the afternoon, but continue to err on the optimistic side with BKN035 starting at 17z. Yet another round of showers and thunder- storms is expected during the afternoon and into the evening across the area today. I`ve handled this with prevailing SHRA and PROB30s for TSRA beginning around 18z at most sites. Otherwise, winds pick up from the SW by late morning and turn NW during the afternoon. Outlook: Dry high pressure returns over the weekend and lingers into Monday. Another cold front may bring scattered showers and associated restrictions on Tuesday. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ035>037- 056-057-068>070-502-504-506-508. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TW NEAR TERM...JPT SHORT TERM...TW LONG TERM...TW AVIATION...JPT