156
FXUS62 KGSP 111056
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
656 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue today. Dry conditions
return this weekend and continue into Monday. Showers will be
possible across the mountains Monday night as another fast moving
systems passes through the region. Thereafter, dry weather continues
into late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 6:35 AM EDT Friday: A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect
over a good portion of our NC Piedmont zones until 8 AM. It`s looking
like the fog won`t spread much further, so I think we should be good
with the current DFA. Lows will be near-normal this morning.

Otherwise, broad/deep upper trofing will continue to dig southward
across the Southeast thru the near-term period. By the end of the
period early Saturday, the upper trof axis should be centered right
over our area. At the surface, weak low pressure will become more
organized over our area today and then lift NE and off the Atlantic
Coast later tonight and into Saturday. This synoptic setup will make
for more unsettled weather this aftn/evening as fairly steep mid-level
lapse rates and deep-layer QG forcing will support some amount of con-
vection firing across the area thru today, likely peaking by mid to
late aftn. The sfc low will bring low-level flow around and out of
the W to NW during the aftn, so the better instability will likely
shift east. This should keep the severe threat just to our east as
well, but I wouldn`t totally rule out a few strong to severe storms
over the I-77 corridor as the cooling temps aloft may support some
hail and gusty winds in the deeper convection  In addition, temps
will likely be cold enough to produce some light snow flurries over
the higher peaks and ridges along the NC/TN border tonight into early
Saturday. Any snow accums should be negligible. Otherwise, highs temps
today will be cool for mid-April and mainly in the 50s over the mtns
and 60s across the lower terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 202 AM Friday: The forecast continues Saturday with a deep
trough draped along the East Coast with the trough axis situated
east of the area. This will place the western Carolinas and
northeast Georgia within a dry northwest flow regime. Low heights
and modest cold advection will foster another cool day with daytime
highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. The airmass begins to modify Sunday
as the trough swings offshore and heights rise as upper ridging
builds into the Appalachians. Resulting highs are forecast to return
to the low 60s to low 70s. Overnight lows will remain on the cool
side, however, with favorable radiational cooling, especially Sunday
morning. At or below freezing lows will be possible across the
mountains with mid to upper 30s east. A freeze watch may eventually
be warranted Sunday morning for the southern mountains where the
frost/freeze program has begun.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 218 AM Friday: The synoptic pattern remains progressive
heading into next week with a shortwave trough quickly swinging
across the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region by
Tuesday morning. The warmest day of the period will be on Monday
when heights are the highest along with compressional warming ahead
of an advancing cold front. Resulting high temperatures are expected
to climb into the low to mid 80s. The cold front, extending from a
surface low over southern Ontario, will approach the mountains
Monday night with a chance for showers along the immediate Tennessee
border. Confidence is low as to how far east any showers may make it
with most guidance in generally good agreement that showers will
struggle to make it east of the mountains. Another shot of cool and
dry air arrives Tuesday, but may be short lived as the progressive
pattern reloads. A series of shortwave troughs is depicted Thursday
into Friday with a return of rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Winds should remain light and vrb to calm
at most sites thru much of the morning. Expect MVFR to IFR cigs
and vsby to persist into mid-morning, with low VFR for all taf
sites by the afternoon. Cigs at KHKY may remain MVFR well into
the afternoon, but continue to err on the optimistic side with
BKN035 starting at 17z. Yet another round of showers and thunder-
storms is expected during the afternoon and into the evening across
the area today. I`ve handled this with prevailing SHRA and PROB30s
for TSRA beginning around 18z at most sites. Otherwise, winds pick
up from the SW by late morning and turn NW during the afternoon.

Outlook: Dry high pressure returns over the weekend and lingers
into Monday. Another cold front may bring scattered showers and
associated restrictions on Tuesday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>070-502-504-506-508.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TW
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...TW
AVIATION...JPT