347 FXUS62 KILM 050548 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 148 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will spread rain across the area as it moves northward. After a break in the rain on Friday a series of upper disturbances and surface boundaries will keep the weather unsettled for several days. && .UPDATE... Very slowly, very steadily, showers are continuing to become more widespread and finally make their way northward into southeast NC. Think there`s still some dry air somewhere within the 850-500 mb layer, something that models are wiping out too quickly. As it is, model data has had a wet bias with this event over the last 24 hours, and I`m trying not to adjust too fast to model trends that I don`t fully trust right now. Regardless, a moisture axis hugging the Grand Strand coast and pulling inland towards Williamsburg and Georgetown Counties will continue to slowly move to the NNW tonight. Precipitable water values in this area top out near 2.2-2.3 inches, which is extremely impressive for early June. But if we`re going to see the 1-2" amounts at the coast, as expected, that moisture intrusion better make a dent in the dry layer still there. Updated 06Z TAF discussion found below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... A surface trough is currently located across the Southeast, extending from the NE Gulf to coastal SC, with widespread showers ongoing across eastern GA and southern SC. A sharp PWAT gradient in place between 2" in southern SC and <1" across Cape Fear, seen via ALPW satellite product and latest mesoanalysis. Aided by a 500mb shortwave moving up the SE coast, the surface trough and associated precipitation will move northward tonight, though current northward progression is slower than previously expected due to rather strong and stubborn mid level ridge currently over the Mid-Atlantic. This ridge will shift offshore tomorrow, which will keep the weak low that forms along the trough over the eastern Carolinas instead of offshore. The heaviest rain is expected overnight tonight where convergence will be maximized on the north-northeast edge of the trough, with the heavier bands exiting the Cape Fear region early on Thursday. PWATs overnight will be near 2.3", above the climatological max for June 5th based on CHS and MHX sounding data. Showers will continue during the day Thursday as the low slowly forms, though at a lesser intensity overall than tonight. Could get some decent instability developing Thursday afternoon, mainly across Pee Dee region, and scattered thunderstorms are forecasted to develop from the west on the backside of the low as wrap around mid level dry air looks to be delayed. Storm total QPF through Thursday evening is around 1.5-3", with isolated 4". There is a risk for flooding in any training bands, especially near the coast and low-lying areas, but any impacts are expected to be isolated and therefore not warrant a Flood Watch. Due to expected convective nature of the precipitation, some areas might see less than 1". Small diurnal range on Thursday, with lows around 70F in the morning warming to only 80F in the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A small area of low pressure will be exiting the area early in the period and taking the heavy rain along with it as PW values fall from over 2.0" to 1.6" by Friday morning. Deep layer westerly flow will then keep us rain-free on Friday save for perhaps isolated coverage of showers or storms mainly along the sea breeze. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Moisture returns Saturday into Saturday night. A few prefrontal boundaries will provide some lift that will be bolstered by an increasingly vorticity-laden series of shortwaves. Instability develops and may not wane significantly overnight as the strongest of these shortwaves traverses the area. SPC has our SC zones outlooked for 15% for possible severe weather, which is somewhat uncommon for the day 4 outlook. This setup remains largely unchanged heading into Sunday so expect a similarly unsettled period if not a little moreso as a proper front approaches from the NW. This front will align with flow aloft as trough cuts off just north of the Great Lakes. This will keep rain chances elevated above climatology. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Widespread showers offshore have had trouble making their way inland, due to mid-level dry air. But the trends are very slowly pointing towards more rain. Regardless, ceilings are very solidly MVFR across the area, with IFR likely coming soon for most terminals, particularly inland. LIFR ceilings inland are not out of the question during early morning hours, but confidence is low. Showers overnight may be heavy at times, which would lead to drops in visibility as well. Expect any thunder to be isolated, and mainly near coastal terminals towards sunrise. Scattered thunderstorms may develop Thursday afternoon. Easterly winds around 10 kts early this morning will begin veering to southerly before midday as low pressure lifts across the inland Carolinas during the day. Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions due to low ceilings will continue through Friday morning as low pressure system exits the area. Brief restrictions possible during afternoon thunderstorms Saturday through Monday, along with chance of overnight/morning fog and stratus Saturday night and Sunday night. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...Surface trough currently extending into southern SC will move northward overnight, and a weak low pressure system is forecasted to develop inland over the eastern Carolinas during the day Thursday. This will lead to widespread showers tonight into Thursday with isolated thunderstorms, creating areas of low visibilities over the coastal waters at times. Southeasterly winds 15 kts tonight will shift to southerly at southerly Thursday morning. Seas generally around 4 ft, with 5 footers in the outer coastal waters, with SE swell transitioning to S swell. Thursday night through Monday... An area of low pressure will be lifting north of the waters Thursday night into Friday. SW flow will turn to the W but gusts limited to about 20kt will preclude any headlines. The predominantly wind-driven waves will also remain sub criteria in part due to the offshore fetch. Southwesterly winds will then come to dominate the remainder of the forecast period as a series of weak troughs approach from the NW. As this fetch becomes more established in time wave periods could lengthen slightly as some E to SE swell energy develops. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...IGB NEAR TERM...VAO SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...IGB MARINE...ILM